Republican Senate odds hit __ by October 31?

Polymarket Elections › President 2028 Closes Sat 11:59 PM ET · $3.9K today · $149K traded · $20K at stake · prices read just now

The odds

22%↓ 30%
  • Reaches 40%20%
  • Reaches 45%2%
  • Reaches 50%1%
  • Reaches 55%1%
  • Reaches 60%1%
  • Falls to 30%22%
  • Falls to 25%6%

Already reached: ↓ 35%

How the odds have moved

Falls to 25%: 6% on Oct 20, 6% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Polymarket. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Why it moved

  1. Oct 21, 8 PM ETFalls to 25%: 6% → 12%

The biggest swings over the chart's period, each with the headlines about the market's subject published in the hours before it. News and odds moving together is not proof one caused the other.

Every outcome

Outcome Chance Day Bid Ask Pays Traded
↑ 40% 20% ▲ 2 19¢ 22¢ $4.65 $26.5K
↑ 45% 2% ▲ 1 2¢ 3¢ $34.48 $22.2K
↑ 50% 1% 1¢ 2¢ $66.67 $19.7K
↑ 55% 1% 1¢ 2¢ $47.62 $2K
↑ 60% 1% 0¢ 2¢ $55.56 $2.8K
↓ 25% 6% ▲ 1 6¢ 6¢ $16.67 $33.9K
↓ 30% 22% ▼ 21 20¢ 23¢ $4.35 $37.7K
✓ ↓ 35% >99% ▲ 11 100¢ 100¢ $4.6K

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: Republican Senate

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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Search. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

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