Which company has the best Text-to-Video AI end of November?

Polymarket Tech › AI Closes Nov 30 · $563 today · $15K traded · $1.9K at stake · prices read 11 min ago

The odds

61%Google

Google61%▼ 19
ByteDance14%▲ 2
Lightricks7%▲ 3
KlingAI5%
MiniMax3%
Meta2%
Pika1%
Kandinsky1%
Alibaba/Alibaba-ATH1%
OpenAI1%
Genmo AI1%
SpaceXAI1%

6 more

Pixverse1%
Runway1%
Pruna1%
Luma AI1%
Tencent1%
Black Forest Labs1%

How the odds have moved

Google: 71% on Oct 20, 61% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Polymarket. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Why it moved

Oct 27, 1 PM ETGoogle: 71% → 61%

No headline about it in the hours around this move.

The biggest swings over the chart's period, each with the headlines about the market's subject published in the hours before it. News and odds moving together is not proof one caused the other.

Every outcome

Outcome	Chance	Day	Bid	Ask	Pays	Traded
Google	61%	▼ 19	58¢	64¢	$1.56	$4.3K
ByteDance	14%	▲ 2	10¢	19¢	$5.26	$3.2K
Lightricks	7%	▲ 3	1¢	13¢	$7.94	$416
KlingAI	5%		1¢	10¢	$10.53	$464
MiniMax	3%		0¢	5¢	$20.41	$623
Meta	2%		0¢	4¢	$23.81	$460
Pika	1%		0¢	2¢	$52.63	$607
Kandinsky	1%		0¢	2¢	$55.56	$513
Alibaba/Alibaba-ATH	1%		0¢	1¢	$100.00	$666
OpenAI	1%		0¢	1¢	$100.00	$588
Genmo AI	1%		0¢	1¢	$100.00	$364
SpaceXAI	1%		0¢	1¢		$491
Pixverse	1%		0¢	1¢		$381
Runway	1%		0¢	1¢		$412
Pruna	1%		0¢	1¢		$381
Luma AI	1%		0¢	1¢		$381
Tencent	1%		0¢	1¢		$383
Black Forest Labs	1%		0¢	1¢		$381

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: Text-to-Video AI

Search ›

Text to Video AI — Free Online Generator | Leonardo.AiLeonardo.ai · 6 days agoDescribe the scene, pick a model, and watch it appear. Leonardo.Ai turns your words into high-quality video clips in minutes — free to start. Your words carry the whole shot. Text-to-video AI turns a written description into a finished…
How to Make an AI Video: 13 Steps, 45 Min [2026]Tech Insider · 5 days agoYou will write a shot list, turn it into prompts with a short Python script, run text to video AI drafts, upgrade the keepers with image to video AI, and assemble the result with FFmpeg. If you still need to choose a tool before you start…
SCAI UCO | Virtual tour generated by Visitas Virtuales GranadaUniversidad de Córdoba (UCO) · 12 days agofree text to video ai porn Is There AI That Can Make Porn for Consenting Adults With Age Verification Universidad de Córdoba (UCO)

Related markets

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Tech › AI

Which company has the best Text-to-Video AI end of December?

75%Google

Google75%▼ 1
MiniMax20%▼ 5
Pruna15%▲ 2

15 more

Alibaba/Alibaba-ATH15%▲ 2
Black Forest Labs15%▲ 2
Pika14%▲ 2
Meta14%▲ 1
OpenAI11%▲ 1
ByteDance10%▲ 1
SpaceXAI4%
Pixverse3%
Lightricks3%
Luma AI3%
Runway1%
Tencent<1%
Kandinsky<1%
Genmo AI<1%
KlingAI<1%

Tech › AI

Which company has best AI model end of 2026?

56%Anthropic

Anthropic56%▲ 3
Google34%▼ 3
OpenAI6%

12 more

Meta2%
xAI1%
Alibaba1%
DeepSeek<1%
Moonshot<1%
Z.ai<1%
Mistral<1%
Microsoft<1%
ByteDance<1%
Meituan<1%
Amazon<1%
Baidu<1%

Tech › AI

Which company has the best AI model end of October?

91%Google

Google91%▲ 6
Anthropic7%▼ 1
Meta<1%

18 more

OpenAI<1%
Alibaba<1%
Moonshot<1%
Baidu<1%
Z.ai<1%
Xiaomi<1%
SpaceXAI<1%
DeepSeek<1%
Amazon<1%
ByteDance<1%
Nvidia<1%
Thinky<1%
MiniMax<1%
Mistral<1%
Meituan<1%
Tencent<1%
StepFun<1%
Microsoft<1%

Tech › AI

GPT Astra 6.1+ released by...?

Nov 26, 2026even chance by

October 3116%▼ 1
November 1536%▼ 4
November 3056%▲ 3

2 more

December 1575%▼ 1
December 3180%▼ 7

Tech › AI

OpenAI announces another Millennium Prize solution by...?

Dec 7, 2027even chance by

December 31, 202615%▲ 9
December 31, 202753%▼ 1

Tech › AI

Next Fable Model (5.2+) released on...?

65%No release by October 31

No release by October 3165%▼ 5
October 2920%▲ 16
October 315%▲ 5

11 more

October 274%▼ 11
October 283%▼ 2
October 302%
October 201%▼ 12
October 19<1%▼ 2
October 21<1%▼ 5
October 22<1%▼ 14
October 23<1%▼ 4
October 24<1%
October 25<1%▼ 1
October 26<1%▼ 4

Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Search. Prices read from the venues 2 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

About this market

VenuePolymarket

Trading closesNov 30, 2026 11:59 PM ET

Traded$15K

Today$563

This week$1.5K

At stake$1.9K

Followed here sinceOct 19, 2026

The rules

This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest rank based on the arena.ai Text-to-Video Leaderboard when the table under "Text-to-Video Arena" filtered for "Models" is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text-to-Video Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text-to-video filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market. Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score. Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on r

The full rules are on the market's page at Polymarket.

Prices it is about

Alphabet Inc.GOOGL · about the company320.97+1.31%
Meta Platforms, Inc.META · about the company623.87−1.06%

From 4Search Finance. Prices may be delayed up to 15 min. Not investment advice.

Reading the odds

A prediction market trades contracts that pay $1 if something happens. Its price is the market's chance: a contract at 62¢ means traders give it 62%. Each number here is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.

For a question with many answers (who wins, which range a number lands in), the chances are scaled to add up to 100%. A price ladder ("above 4.25%, above 4.50% ...") gives a whole distribution: its median is where traders see an even chance either way.

Kalshi is a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; its money is counted in contracts, shown here as dollars at their price. Polymarket counts dollars. ForecastEx is Interactive Brokers' exchange, regulated by the CFTC; its contracts too are shown as dollars at their price. Crypto.com lists its markets on Crypto.com | Derivatives North America, a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; it reports the dollars traded. Where more than one asks the same question, each is shown, never averaged.

Prefer betting odds? Switch to American (+150) or decimal (2.50) odds at the top of the page.

Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Search, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Search index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Search Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions