Which company has the best Text-to-Video AI end of December?

Polymarket Tech › AI Closes Dec 31 · $92 today · $9.6K traded · $1.9K at stake · prices read 2 h ago

The odds

54%Google

Google54%
Pruna24%
Alibaba/Alibaba-ATH23%
Black Forest Labs23%
Pika22%
ByteDance10%▼ 1
OpenAI8%
Pixverse3%
SpaceXAI3%
Lightricks3%▲ 2
Luma AI3%
Meta3%▼ 2

6 more

Runway1%
MiniMax<1%
Kandinsky<1%
Tencent<1%
Genmo AI<1%
KlingAI<1%

How the odds have moved

Not enough history yet.

Each outcome's chance over time on Polymarket. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Every outcome

Outcome	Chance	Day	Bid	Ask	Pays	Traded
Google	54%		48¢	59¢	$1.69	$3.4K
Pruna	24%		1¢	46¢	$2.18	$191
Alibaba/Alibaba-ATH	23%		1¢	46¢	$2.17	$850
Black Forest Labs	23%		0¢	46¢	$2.18	$240
Pika	22%		0¢	45¢	$2.25	$163
ByteDance	10%	▼ 1		20¢	$5.00	$844
OpenAI	8%		2¢	13¢	$7.69	$2.1K
Pixverse	3%		0¢	7¢	$14.93	$158
SpaceXAI	3%		1¢	6¢	$17.24	$172
Lightricks	3%	▲ 2	0¢	5¢	$20.00	$192
Luma AI	3%		0¢	5¢	$20.41	$181
Meta	3%	▼ 2	1¢	4¢	$22.73	$193
Runway	1%		0¢	1¢		$176
MiniMax	<1%		0¢	1¢		$143
Kandinsky	<1%		0¢	1¢		$166
Tencent	<1%		0¢	1¢		$217
Genmo AI	<1%		0¢	0¢		$144
KlingAI	<1%		0¢	0¢		$163

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: Text-to-Video AI

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No recent headlines name this market's subject.

Related markets

All ai ›

Tech › AI

Which company has the best Text-to-Video AI end of November?

71%Google

Google71%▼ 2
ByteDance15%▼ 3
Lightricks5%▲ 2

15 more

Meta4%▲ 1
KlingAI4%▲ 1
MiniMax3%▲ 1
OpenAI1%
Pika1%
Kandinsky1%
Alibaba/Alibaba-ATH<1%
SpaceXAI<1%
Pixverse<1%
Runway<1%
Pruna<1%
Luma AI<1%
Tencent<1%
Genmo AI<1%
Black Forest Labs<1%

Tech › AI

Anthropic announces bankruptcy by...?

24%December 31, 2029

December 31, 202710%
December 31, 202817%▼ 2
December 31, 202924%

Tech › AI

DeepSeek market share this week (DeepSeek market share - Oct 19, 2026)

26.6%median

21.6%29%

Median 26.6%Middle half 25.54% – 27.52%

Tech › AI

Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by...?

Oct 26, 2026even chance by

October 2122%▼ 18
October 2236%▼ 23
October 2441%▼ 38

2 more

October 3178%▼ 7
December 3198%

Tech › AI

Which company has the best AI model end of October?

75%Google

Google75%▲ 4
Anthropic24%▼ 6
OpenAI1%

18 more

Meta<1%
Alibaba<1%
Moonshot<1%
Baidu<1%
Z.ai<1%
Xiaomi<1%
SpaceXAI<1%
DeepSeek<1%
Amazon<1%
ByteDance<1%
Nvidia<1%
Thinky<1%
MiniMax<1%
Mistral<1%
Meituan<1%
Tencent<1%
StepFun<1%
Microsoft<1%

Tech › AI

Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?

$2.1Thigh with an even chance

Traders see an even chance of trading as high as $2.1T.

Reaches $1.5T91%
Reaches $1.75T69%

Falls to $800B4%
Falls to $700B4%

Already reached: ↑$1.25T, ↑$1.1T, ↑$1.0T

Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Search. Prices read from the venues 3 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

About this market

VenuePolymarket

Trading closesDec 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET

Traded$9.6K

Today$92

This week$9.6K

At stake$1.9K

Followed here sinceOct 19, 2026

The rules

This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest rank based on the arena.ai Text-to-Video Leaderboard when the table under "Text-to-Video Arena" filtered for "Models" is checked on December 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text-to-Video Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text-to-video filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market. Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score. Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on r

The full rules are on the market's page at Polymarket.

Prices it is about

Alphabet Inc.GOOGL · about the company344.18+1.05%
Meta Platforms, Inc.META · about the company705.44−0.55%

From 4Search Finance. Prices may be delayed up to 15 min. Not investment advice.

Reading the odds

A prediction market trades contracts that pay $1 if something happens. Its price is the market's chance: a contract at 62¢ means traders give it 62%. Each number here is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.

For a question with many answers (who wins, which range a number lands in), the chances are scaled to add up to 100%. A price ladder ("above 4.25%, above 4.50% ...") gives a whole distribution: its median is where traders see an even chance either way.

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Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Search, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Search index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Search Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use.