Which company has best AI model end of 2026?

Polymarket Tech › AI Closes Dec 31 · $22.8K today · $2.6M traded · $212K at stake · prices read 32 min ago

The odds

51%Anthropic

Anthropic51%▲ 3
Google40%▲ 1
OpenAI6%▼ 2
Meta1%▼ 1
xAI1%
Alibaba<1%
DeepSeek<1%
Moonshot<1%
Z.ai<1%
Mistral<1%
Microsoft<1%
Amazon<1%

3 more

ByteDance<1%
Baidu<1%
Meituan<1%

How the odds have moved

Anthropic: 51% on Oct 20, 51% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Polymarket. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Every outcome

Outcome	Chance	Day	Bid	Ask	Pays	Traded
Anthropic	51%	▲ 3	51¢	52¢	$1.92	$368K
Google	40%	▲ 1	40¢	41¢	$2.44	$307K
OpenAI	6%	▼ 2	6¢	6¢	$16.39	$219K
Meta	1%	▼ 1	1¢	1¢	$76.92	$19K
xAI	1%		1¢	1¢	$83.33	$17K
Alibaba	<1%		0¢	0¢		$15K
DeepSeek	<1%		0¢	0¢		$148K
Moonshot	<1%		0¢	0¢		$156K
Z.ai	<1%		0¢	0¢		$133K
Mistral	<1%		0¢	0¢		$192K
Microsoft	<1%		0¢	0¢		$12K
Amazon	<1%		0¢	0¢		$114K
ByteDance	<1%		0¢	0¢		$126K
Baidu	<1%			0¢		$117K
Meituan	<1%			0¢		$103K

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: AI model, artificial intelligence

Search ›

No recent headlines name this market's subject.

Related markets

All ai ›

Tech › AI

Which company has the best AI model end of November?

50%Google

Google50%▲ 8
Anthropic41%▼ 4
OpenAI4%▼ 1

18 more

Meta2%
Alibaba1%
Z.ai<1%
Moonshot<1%
SpaceXAI<1%▼ 1
DeepSeek<1%
Xiaomi<1%
Baidu<1%
Amazon<1%
ByteDance<1%
Nvidia<1%
Thinky<1%
MiniMax<1%
Mistral<1%
Meituan<1%
Tencent<1%
StepFun<1%
Microsoft<1%

Tech › AI

Which company has the best AI model end of October?

75%Google

Google75%▲ 4
Anthropic23%▼ 5
OpenAI1%

18 more

Meta1%
Alibaba<1%
Moonshot<1%
Baidu<1%
Z.ai<1%
Xiaomi<1%
SpaceXAI<1%
DeepSeek<1%
Amazon<1%
ByteDance<1%
Nvidia<1%
Thinky<1%
MiniMax<1%
Mistral<1%
Meituan<1%
Tencent<1%
StepFun<1%
Microsoft<1%

Tech › AI

Anthropic announces bankruptcy by...?

24%December 31, 2029

December 31, 202710%
December 31, 202817%▼ 2
December 31, 202924%

Tech › AI

DeepSeek market share this week (DeepSeek market share - Oct 19, 2026)

27%median

21.6%29%

Median 27%Middle half 25.3% – 27.65%

Tech › AI

Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by...?

Oct 27, 2026even chance by

October 2118%▼ 23
October 2231%▼ 28
October 2440%▼ 37

2 more

October 3173%▼ 10
December 3195%▼ 3

Tech › AI

Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?

$2.16Thigh with an even chance

Traders see an even chance of trading as high as $2.16T.

Reaches $1.5T91%
Reaches $1.75T69%

Falls to $800B4%
Falls to $700B4%

Already reached: ↑$1.25T, ↑$1.1T, ↑$1.0T

Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Search. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

About this market

VenuePolymarket

Trading closesDec 31, 2026 12:00 PM ET

Traded$2.6M

Today$22.8K

This week$2.6M

At stake$212K

In the news81 headlines today, 1,415 this week

Followed here sinceOct 19, 2026

The rules

This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on December 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market. Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie rema

The full rules are on the market's page at Polymarket.

Prices it is about

Amazon.com, Inc.AMZN · about the company262.45+4.98%
Alibaba Group Holding LimitedBABA · about the company108.57−0.49%
Baidu, Inc.BIDU · about the company79.78−0.45%
Alphabet Inc.GOOGL · about the company344.18+1.05%
Meta Platforms, Inc.META · about the company705.44−0.55%
Microsoft CorporationMSFT · about the company533.52+0.84%

From 4Search Finance. Prices may be delayed up to 15 min. Not investment advice.

Reading the odds

A prediction market trades contracts that pay $1 if something happens. Its price is the market's chance: a contract at 62¢ means traders give it 62%. Each number here is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.

For a question with many answers (who wins, which range a number lands in), the chances are scaled to add up to 100%. A price ladder ("above 4.25%, above 4.50% ...") gives a whole distribution: its median is where traders see an even chance either way.

Kalshi is a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; its money is counted in contracts, shown here as dollars at their price. Polymarket counts dollars. ForecastEx is Interactive Brokers' exchange, regulated by the CFTC; its contracts too are shown as dollars at their price. Crypto.com lists its markets on Crypto.com | Derivatives North America, a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; it reports the dollars traded. Where more than one asks the same question, each is shown, never averaged.

Prefer betting odds? Switch to American (+150) or decimal (2.50) odds at the top of the page.

Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Search, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Search index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Search Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use.