OpenAI announces another Millennium Prize solution by...?

Polymarket Tech › AI Closes Dec 31, 2027 · $29.7K today · $1M traded · $173K at stake · prices read 2 min ago

The odds

Dec 5, 2027even chance by

December 31, 20266%▼ 9
December 31, 202754%▼ 2

How the odds have moved

December 31, 2026: 16% on Oct 20, 6% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Polymarket. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Why it moved

Oct 26, 4 PM ETDecember 31, 2026: 14% → 6%

No headline about it in the hours around this move.

The biggest swings over the chart's period, each with the headlines about the market's subject published in the hours before it. News and odds moving together is not proof one caused the other.

Every outcome

Outcome	Chance	Day	Bid	Ask	Pays	Traded
September 30, 2026	<1%	▼ 2		0¢		$223K
December 31, 2026	6%	▼ 9	5¢	7¢	$14.49	$389K
December 31, 2027	54%	▼ 2	53¢	54¢	$1.85	$424K

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: OpenAI, ChatGPT, Millennium Prize

Search ›

OpenAI releases ChatGPT work activity data across 100 countriesCrypto Briefing · 2 h agoThe country-level dataset shows work tasks, older users and image generation reshaping how people use the chatbot OpenAI official logo (public domain, Wikimedia Commons) — CryptoBriefing brand treatment OpenAI has published a…
Texas sues OpenAI and Sam Altman over ChatGPT’s safety for childrenTNW | Legal · 10 h agoAttorney General Ken Paxton wants ChatGPT kept away from minors in the state and new AI models vetted before release. The Texas OpenAI lawsuit names Altman personally. Ken Paxton at AmericaFest 2025 in Phoenix Texas has taken OpenAI and…
Paxton Sues OpenAI and Sam Altman, Seeks to Block Minors From ChatGPT@cdnnow · 31 h agoTexas Attorney General Ken Paxton has sued OpenAI and CEO Sam Altman, accusing the ChatGPT maker of marketing its chatbot as safe while failing to protect Texans, including children. The lawsuit, filed Friday in Collin County district…
'Dear ChatGPT': 12-year-old wins top youth prize at Australian Poetry Slam – videothe Guardian · 15 h agoBlake Mackenzie, a 12-year-old from Newcastle, has won the top youth prize at the Australian Poetry Slam for his reflections on artificial intelligence. The winning piece, performed at the Sydney Opera House on Sunday night, covered…
OpenAI to Train Cutting-Edge AI 'Offline'; Anthropic Makes Same Decision, Impact on ChatGPT and Remaining Loopholesnote（ノート） · 22 h agoAn AI tasked with a practice problem to research a person could not find the answer and threw a question to an external chatbot through a gap in its containment box. This actually happened with an OpenAI model under training on September…
Twelve-year-old wins Australian slam competition prize with poem about ChatGPT: ‘It’s totally unnecessary’the Guardian · 15 h agoWritten the day before Sunday’s grand final, Blake Mackenzie’s poem covers brain rot, loneliness and environmental degradation in the age of AI Loneliness, brain rot and early exposure to porn. Twelve-year-old Blake Mackenzie has summed up…
Chatbot AI Service Comparison: OpenAI ChatGPT vs Claude vs Gemini (for CRM Actions)DEV Community · 47 h agoShort answer: Choose OpenAI ChatGPT for dynamic casual dialogue, Claude for explainable complex reasoning, and Gemini when minimal-response latency dominates; keep all three behind one CRM action contract. The boundary is simple: the model…
Sweden's Government Offices Block ChatGPT and Claude, Keep Microsoft CopilotDecrypt · 2 days agoSweden's Government Offices—the administrative body supporting the prime minister and cabinet—will block ChatGPT and Claude on staff computers from Monday, directing civil servants to Microsoft's Copilot as the only approved AI tool…
Fanatics teams up with OpenAI for new AI-powered shopping suggestion featureCNBC · 7 h agoAt any given moment, Fanatics offers more than 1.5 million unique SKUs for sports fans to buy — from jerseys and hats to team-branded streetwear and socks. The search for those items is getting easier with a new feature called "Shop the…
Anthropic president takes aim at OpenAI over Pentagon deal, questions rival’s motivesNew York Post · 3 h agoAnthropic President Daniela Amodei questioned whether rival OpenAI’s decision to strike a deal with the Pentagon after her company refused to budge on military AI restrictions was a “really principled stand” or an “opportunistic moment,”…
Intapp Launches Celeste Plug-in for OpenAI's ChatGPT EnterpriseMarketScreener · 3 days agoIntapp said Thursday it is launching its Celeste plug-in for law firms on Microsoft-backed OpenAI's ChatGPT Enterprise. The company said Celeste is an AI coworker that was designed to handle... Intapp Launches Celeste Plug-in for OpenAI's…
What is OpenAI 'dots'? A Thorough Explanation of 5 Differences from ChatGPT and How to Get Started [2026 Edition]note（ノート） · 44 h agoFrom the 'era of asking AI questions' to the 'era of delegating work to AI'. A service that makes you feel such a change has been released by OpenAI. Its name is 'dots'. It is a new AI agent announced on September 29, 2026. ChatGPT until…

Related markets

All ai ›

Tech › AI

Which company has the best AI model end of October?

85%Google

Google85%▼ 1
Anthropic9%▼ 1
OpenAI1%▲ 1

18 more

Meta1%
Moonshot<1%
Alibaba<1%
Baidu<1%
Z.ai<1%
Xiaomi<1%
SpaceXAI<1%
DeepSeek<1%
Amazon<1%
ByteDance<1%
Nvidia<1%
Thinky<1%
MiniMax<1%
Mistral<1%
Meituan<1%
Tencent<1%
StepFun<1%
Microsoft<1%

Tech › AI

Next Fable Model (5.2+) released on...?

53%No release by October 31

No release by October 3153%▲ 1
October 2727%▼ 1
October 287%▲ 4

11 more

October 296%▼ 4
October 264%▼ 1
October 303%▲ 3
October 201%▼ 12
October 31<1%
October 19<1%▼ 2
October 21<1%▼ 5
October 22<1%▼ 14
October 23<1%▼ 4
October 24<1%
October 25<1%▼ 1

Tech › AI

Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by...?

Nov 8, 2026even chance by

October 21<1%▼ 12
October 22<1%▼ 14
October 24<1%▼ 1

2 more

October 3144%▼ 1
December 3198%▲ 5

Tech › AI

Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?

$2.25Thigh with an even chance

Traders see an even chance of trading as high as $2.25T.

Reaches $1.5T96%
Reaches $1.75T82%

Falls to $800B3%
Falls to $700B3%

Already reached: ↑$1.25T, ↑$1.1T, ↑$1.0T

Tech › AI

Next Claude Haiku Model (4.6+): Text Arena Debut?

1,410median

1,3801,480

Median 1,410Middle half 1,405 – 1,415

Tech › AI

Which company has best AI model end of 2026?

53%Anthropic

Anthropic53%▼ 2
Google36%▼ 1
OpenAI6%

12 more

xAI2%▲ 1
Meta2%
Alibaba1%
Moonshot1%
Z.ai<1%
DeepSeek<1%
Mistral<1%
Microsoft<1%
ByteDance<1%
Meituan<1%
Amazon<1%
Baidu<1%

Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Search. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

About this market

VenuePolymarket

Trading closesDec 31, 2027 11:59 PM ET

Traded$1M

Today$29.7K

This week$116K

At stake$173K

In the news136 headlines today, 1,775 this week

Followed here sinceOct 19, 2026

The rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI, or an official representative of OpenAI, announces that OpenAI has solved any of the qualifying Millennium Prize Problems between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The qualifying problems are the Riemann Hypothesis, P versus NP, the Yang-Mills existence and mass gap problem, the Hodge Conjecture, and the Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer Conjecture (https://www.claymath.org/millennium-problems/). Announcements concerning the Navier-Stokes existence and smoothness problem will not qualify. A qualifying announcement must express that the problem has been solved; announcements of partial resul

The full rules are on the market's page at Polymarket.

Reading the odds

A prediction market trades contracts that pay $1 if something happens. Its price is the market's chance: a contract at 62¢ means traders give it 62%. Each number here is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.

For a question with many answers (who wins, which range a number lands in), the chances are scaled to add up to 100%. A price ladder ("above 4.25%, above 4.50% ...") gives a whole distribution: its median is where traders see an even chance either way.

Kalshi is a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; its money is counted in contracts, shown here as dollars at their price. Polymarket counts dollars. ForecastEx is Interactive Brokers' exchange, regulated by the CFTC; its contracts too are shown as dollars at their price. Crypto.com lists its markets on Crypto.com | Derivatives North America, a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; it reports the dollars traded. Where more than one asks the same question, each is shown, never averaged.

Prefer betting odds? Switch to American (+150) or decimal (2.50) odds at the top of the page.

Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Search, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Search index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Search Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions