Next Fable Model (5.2+) released on...?

Polymarket Tech › AI Closes Oct 31 · $48.9K today · $354K traded · $22K at stake · prices read just now

The odds

54%No release by October 31

No release by October 3154%▼ 17
October 2717%▲ 1
October 2911%▲ 8
October 264%▼ 1
October 284%▲ 1
October 303%▲ 2
October 201%▼ 12
October 31<1%▼ 1
October 19<1%▼ 2
October 21<1%▼ 5
October 22<1%▼ 14
October 23<1%▼ 4

2 more

October 24<1%
October 25<1%▼ 1

How the odds have moved

No release by October 31: 24% on Oct 20, 54% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Polymarket. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Why it moved

Oct 23, 11 PM ETNo release by October 31: 61% → 74%

No headline about it in the hours around this move.
Oct 21, 8 PM ETNo release by October 31: 22% → 31%

No headline about it in the hours around this move.

The biggest swings over the chart's period, each with the headlines about the market's subject published in the hours before it. News and odds moving together is not proof one caused the other.

Every outcome

Outcome	Chance	Day	Bid	Ask	Pays	Traded
No release by October 31	54%	▼ 17	54¢	54¢	$1.84	$108K
October 27	17%	▲ 1	16¢	18¢	$5.71	$35K
October 29	11%	▲ 8	10¢	12¢	$8.33	$13.1K
October 26	4%	▼ 1	2¢	7¢	$14.08	$8.7K
October 28	4%	▲ 1	2¢	5¢	$18.87	$8.5K
October 30	3%	▲ 2	1¢	6¢	$16.95	$8.1K
October 20	1%	▼ 12	0¢	1¢	$76.92	$36.2K
October 31	<1%	▼ 1	0¢	0¢		$15.1K
October 19	<1%	▼ 2		0¢		$8.6K
October 21	<1%	▼ 5		0¢		$13.6K
October 22	<1%	▼ 14		0¢		$28K
October 23	<1%	▼ 4		0¢		$8K
October 24	<1%			0¢		$14.8K
October 25	<1%	▼ 1		0¢		$13.5K
On or prior to October 3	<1%	▼ 43		4¢	$25.00	$271
October 4	<1%	▼ 2		0¢		$688
October 5	<1%	▼ 4		0¢		$553
October 6	<1%	▼ 14		0¢		$1.5K
October 7	<1%	▼ 12		10¢	$9.71	$992
October 8	<1%			3¢	$30.30	$1.7K
October 9	<1%	▼ 3		0¢		$627
October 10	<1%	▼ 1		0¢		$528
October 11	<1%	▼ 2		0¢		$588
October 12	<1%	▼ 3		0¢		$638
October 13	<1%	▼ 14		0¢		$1.6K
October 14	<1%	▼ 21		0¢		$5.5K
October 15	<1%	▼ 10		0¢		$9.1K
October 16	<1%	▼ 2		0¢		$7.2K
October 17	<1%	▼ 1		0¢		$1.6K
October 18	<1%			0¢		$2.8K

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: Fable Model

Search ›

Sam Altman’s three AI safety scenarios range from global oversight to a worst-case outcome: Report@firstpost · 5 days agoAs the US considers a framework for overseeing superintelligence, Altman has reportedly outlined three scenarios, ranging from international AI oversight to a future in which a developer uses self-improving AI to monopolise computing power…
Sam Altman reportedly pitched three endgames for AI safety, one involving a single firm melting everyone else's GPUsThe Decoder · 5 days agoOpenAI CEO Sam Altman reportedly laid out three approaches to safe AI for his employees. The details come from a report by The Information, citing people familiar with the matter. Altman made the remarks internally last week, while the…

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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Search. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

About this market

VenuePolymarket

Trading closesOct 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET

Traded$354K

Today$48.9K

This week$176K

At stake$22K

Followed here sinceOct 19, 2026

The rules

This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Anthropic's next Fable model (5.2+) is made available to the general public. A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Fable" and be designated as version 5.2 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 5.2 or higher named in the same manner as Claude Fable 5 or Claude Fable 5.1 would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as Claude Fable 6, while models whose name does not include "Fable" or which retain a version designation below 5.2, such as Claude Fable 5.1 or Claude Mythos 5.1, will not qualify.

The full rules are on the market's page at Polymarket.

Reading the odds

A prediction market trades contracts that pay $1 if something happens. Its price is the market's chance: a contract at 62¢ means traders give it 62%. Each number here is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.

For a question with many answers (who wins, which range a number lands in), the chances are scaled to add up to 100%. A price ladder ("above 4.25%, above 4.50% ...") gives a whole distribution: its median is where traders see an even chance either way.

Kalshi is a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; its money is counted in contracts, shown here as dollars at their price. Polymarket counts dollars. ForecastEx is Interactive Brokers' exchange, regulated by the CFTC; its contracts too are shown as dollars at their price. Crypto.com lists its markets on Crypto.com | Derivatives North America, a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; it reports the dollars traded. Where more than one asks the same question, each is shown, never averaged.

Prefer betting odds? Switch to American (+150) or decimal (2.50) odds at the top of the page.

Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Search, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Search index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Search Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions