US-Iran nuclear deal? (Before Jan 20, 2029)

Kalshi World › Middle East Closes Jan 20, 2029 · $833 today · $369K traded · $132K at stake · prices read 18 min ago

The odds

39%Before Jan 20, 2029
  • Before Nov 1, 20262%
  • Before Dec 1, 20267%
  • Before Jan 1, 202710%
  • Before Feb 1, 202714%▼ 1
  • Before Mar 1, 202720%▼ 4
  • Before Jan 1, 202833%▲ 1
  • Before Jan 20, 202939%▲ 1

How the odds have moved

Before Jan 1, 2027: 8% on Oct 20, 10% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Every outcome

Outcome Chance Day Bid Ask Pays Contracts
Before Sep 1, 2026 1% $100.00 2.2M
Before Oct 1, 2026 1% $100.00 1.1M
Before Nov 1, 2026 2% 1¢ 2¢ $50.00 1.5M
Before Dec 1, 2026 7% 6¢ 7¢ $14.29 310.2K
Before Jan 1, 2027 10% 9¢ 10¢ $10.10 1.9M
Before Feb 1, 2027 14% ▼ 1 13¢ 15¢ $6.67 31.2K
Before Mar 1, 2027 20% ▼ 4 18¢ 22¢ $4.55 88.9K
Before Jan 1, 2028 33% ▲ 1 32¢ 34¢ $2.94 126.7K
Before Jan 20, 2029 39% ▲ 1 38¢ 40¢ $2.50 133.3K

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: Iran, US-Iran

Search ›

Related markets

All middle east ›
World › Middle East

Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?

54%Gadi Eizenkot
  • Gadi Eizenkot54%▲ 2
  • Benjamin Netanyahu27%▼ 1
  • Naftali Bennett14%
16 more
  • Avigdor Lieberman2%▼ 1
  • Israel Katz<1%
  • Moshe Feiglin<1%
  • Amir Ohana<1%
  • Yossi Cohen<1%
  • Itamar Ben Gvir<1%
  • Yair Lapid<1%
  • Benny Gantz<1%
  • Yair Golan<1%
  • Gideon Sa’ar<1%
  • Yariv Levin<1%
  • Ayelet Shaked<1%
  • Yoaz Hendel<1%
  • Nir Barkat<1%
  • Gilad Erdan<1%
  • Ofer Winter<1%

Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Search. Prices read from the venues 2 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Search, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Search index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Search Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions