Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

Polymarket World › Middle East Closes Dec 31 · $136K today · $15.2M traded · $1.6M at stake · prices read 5 min ago

The odds

13%chance

How the odds have moved

Not enough history yet.

Each outcome's chance over time on Polymarket. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Every outcome

Outcome	Chance	Day	Bid	Ask	Pays	Traded
Yes	13%		12¢	13¢	$7.69	$15.2M

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: Iran, Strait of Hormuz

Search ›

No recent headlines name this market's subject.

Related markets

All middle east ›

World › Middle East

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?

7%chance▲ 1

World › Middle East

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?

1%chance

World › Middle East

US-Iran ceasefire continues through...?

67%October 22

October 2267%▼ 2
October 2467%▼ 3
October 2867%▼ 2

6 more

October 3167%▼ 2
November 867%▼ 2
November 1567%▲ 1
November 2267%▲ 2
November 3067%▲ 3
December 3167%▲ 1

World › Middle East

Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?

50%Gadi Eizenkot

Gadi Eizenkot50%▲ 4
Benjamin Netanyahu28%▼ 2
Naftali Bennett14%▲ 1

16 more

Avigdor Lieberman4%▲ 1
Itamar Ben Gvir<1%
Yossi Cohen<1%
Israel Katz<1%
Amir Ohana<1%
Ofer Winter<1%
Yair Lapid<1%
Benny Gantz<1%
Yair Golan<1%
Gideon Sa’ar<1%
Yariv Levin<1%
Moshe Feiglin<1%
Ayelet Shaked<1%
Yoaz Hendel<1%
Nir Barkat<1%
Gilad Erdan<1%

World › Middle East

Who wins the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement by Oct 23?

90%No Hormuz Agreement

No Hormuz Agreement90%▼ 6
Hormuz Agreement; D Senate5%▲ 3
Hormuz Agreement; R Senate3%▲ 1

World › Middle East

US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?

38%December 31

March 3132%▲ 4
October 3132%▲ 4
November 3032%▲ 3

1 more

December 3138%▲ 2

Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Search. Prices read from the venues 4 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

About this market

VenuePolymarket

Trading closesDec 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET

Traded$15.2M

Today$136K

This week$564K

At stake$1.6M

In the news341 headlines today, 5,000 this week

Followed here sinceOct 19, 2026

The rules

This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data h

The full rules are on the market's page at Polymarket.

Reading the odds

A prediction market trades contracts that pay $1 if something happens. Its price is the market's chance: a contract at 62¢ means traders give it 62%. Each number here is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.

For a question with many answers (who wins, which range a number lands in), the chances are scaled to add up to 100%. A price ladder ("above 4.25%, above 4.50% ...") gives a whole distribution: its median is where traders see an even chance either way.

Kalshi is a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; its money is counted in contracts, shown here as dollars at their price. Polymarket counts dollars. ForecastEx is Interactive Brokers' exchange, regulated by the CFTC; its contracts too are shown as dollars at their price. Crypto.com lists its markets on Crypto.com | Derivatives North America, a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; it reports the dollars traded. Where more than one asks the same question, each is shown, never averaged.

Prefer betting odds? Switch to American (+150) or decimal (2.50) odds at the top of the page.

Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Search, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Search index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Search Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use.