US-Iran ceasefire continues through...?
65%October 22
- October 2265%▼ 3
- October 2465%▼ 5
- October 2865%▼ 3
6 more
- October 3165%▼ 4
- November 865%▼ 6
- November 1565%▼ 4
- November 2265%▼ 4
- November 3065%▼ 2
- December 3165%▼ 3
Install
US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?
The odds
38%December 31
- March 3133%▲ 7
- October 3133%▲ 3
- November 3033%▲ 4
- December 3138%
How the odds have moved
March 31: 32% on Oct 20, 33% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Polymarket. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Traded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| March 31 | 33% | ▲ 7 | 65¢ | 66¢ | $1.52 | $99.8K |
| July 14 | <1% | ▼ 1 | 0¢ | $43.4K | ||
| July 24 | <1% | ▼ 2 | 0¢ | $352K | ||
| July 31 | <1% | ▼ 1 | 0¢ | $1.1M | ||
| August 7 | <1% | ▼ 13 | 0¢ | $3M | ||
| August 8 | <1% | ▼ 10 | 0¢ | $417K | ||
| August 9 | <1% | ▼ 5 | 0¢ | $697K | ||
| August 10 | <1% | ▼ 1 | 0¢ | $543K | ||
| August 11 | <1% | ▼ 1 | 0¢ | $608K | ||
| August 12 | <1% | ▼ 1 | 0¢ | $49K | ||
| August 13 | <1% | ▼ 1 | 0¢ | $404K | ||
| August 14 | <1% | ▼ 1 | 0¢ | $496K | ||
| August 15 | <1% | ▼ 1 | 0¢ | $3.3M | ||
| August 22 | <1% | 0¢ | $1.5M | |||
| August 31 | <1% | 0¢ | $4.9M | |||
| September 7 | <1% | ▼ 1 | 0¢ | $1.8M | ||
| September 14 | <1% | 0¢ | $1.8M | |||
| September 21 | <1% | ▼ 1 | 0¢ | $1.5M | ||
| September 30 | <1% | ▼ 1 | 0¢ | $5.6M | ||
| October 15 | <1% | 0¢ | $3.7M | |||
| October 31 | 33% | ▲ 3 | 9¢ | 10¢ | $10.00 | $5.4M |
| November 30 | 33% | ▲ 4 | 23¢ | 24¢ | $4.17 | $266K |
| December 31 | 38% | 38¢ | 38¢ | $2.60 | $3.7M |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news
No recent headlines name this market's subject.
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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Search. Prices read from the venues 2 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Search, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Search index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Search Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use.