Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?

Polymarket World › Middle East Closes today 11:59 PM ET · $4.9M today · $59.9M traded · $8.4M at stake · prices read just now

The odds

65%Gadi Eizenkot
  • Gadi Eizenkot65%▲ 8
  • Benjamin Netanyahu22%▼ 4
  • Naftali Bennett7%▼ 5
  • Avigdor Lieberman2%
  • Itamar Ben Gvir<1%
  • Yossi Cohen<1%
  • Yair Golan<1%
  • Israel Katz<1%
  • Amir Ohana<1%
  • Benny Gantz<1%
  • Gideon Sa’ar<1%
  • Yariv Levin<1%
7 more
  • Moshe Feiglin<1%
  • Ayelet Shaked<1%
  • Yoaz Hendel<1%
  • Nir Barkat<1%
  • Gilad Erdan<1%
  • Ofer Winter<1%
  • Yair Lapid<1%

How the odds have moved

Gadi Eizenkot: 50% on Oct 20, 65% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Polymarket. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Why it moved

  1. Oct 27, 10 AM ETGadi Eizenkot: 53% → 65%

    No headline about it in the hours around this move.

The biggest swings over the chart's period, each with the headlines about the market's subject published in the hours before it. News and odds moving together is not proof one caused the other.

Every outcome

Outcome Chance Day Bid Ask Pays Traded
Gadi Eizenkot 65% ▲ 8 65¢ 65¢ $1.53 $4.4M
Benjamin Netanyahu 22% ▼ 4 21¢ 22¢ $4.55 $15.6M
Naftali Bennett 7% ▼ 5 6¢ 7¢ $14.29 $4.6M
Avigdor Lieberman 2% 1¢ 2¢ $55.56 $3.9M
Itamar Ben Gvir <1% 0¢ $2.1M
Yossi Cohen <1% 0¢ 0¢ $3.9M
Yair Golan <1% 0¢ 0¢ $2.8M
Israel Katz <1% 0¢ 0¢ $1.3M
Amir Ohana <1% 0¢ 0¢ $2.9M
Benny Gantz <1% 0¢ $2.3M
Gideon Sa’ar <1% 0¢ $2.5M
Yariv Levin <1% 0¢ $2M
Moshe Feiglin <1% 0¢ $2.5M
Ayelet Shaked <1% 0¢ $2.1M
Yoaz Hendel <1% 0¢ $1.7M
Nir Barkat <1% 0¢ $1.8M
Gilad Erdan <1% 0¢ $835K
Ofer Winter <1% 0¢ $614K
Yair Lapid <1% 0¢ $2M

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: Israel, Gaza, Netanyahu

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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Search. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

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