How many rallies will Trump hold before the midterms? (from January 1 to November 3, 2026)

Kalshi Elections Closes Nov 3 · $36 today · $26K traded · $13.5K at stake · prices read 25 min ago

The odds

47.1median
3070
Median 47.1Middle half 44.4 – 49.5

How the odds have moved

Not enough history yet.

The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.

Every outcome

Outcome Chance Day Bid Ask Pays Contracts
✓ Above 15 99% $1.01 8.6K
✓ Above 20 98% $1.02 4.1K
✓ Above 25 98% $1.02 2.4K
✓ Above 30 91% $1.10 1.2K
Above 35 97% ▲ 1 94¢ 99¢ $1.01 2.6K
Above 40 93% ▲ 1 89¢ 96¢ $1.04 6.3K
Above 45 73% ▲ 2 69¢ 76¢ $1.32 1.7K
Above 50 20% ▼ 9 16¢ 24¢ $4.17 466
Above 55 14% ▼ 6 12¢ 17¢ $5.88 2.0K
Above 60 11% ▼ 4 7¢ 15¢ $6.67 626
Above 65 7% ▼ 1 3¢ 11¢ $9.09 24.00

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: Trump

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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Search. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Search, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Search index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Search Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use.