Traffic through the Suez Canal? (11/16 - 11/22)

Kalshi Politics › World leaders Closes Nov 24 · $122 today · $122 traded · $122 at stake · prices read 9 h ago

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The odds

306.5median

270340

Median 306.5Middle half 294.4 – 317.4

How the odds have moved

Median: 303.1 on Nov 13, 306.5 now.

The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.

Every outcome

Outcome	Chance	Bid	Ask	Pays	Contracts
Above 280	95%	90¢	99¢	$1.01
Above 290	83%	78¢	88¢	$1.14
Above 300	65%	58¢	94¢	$1.06	70.00
Above 320	19%	15¢	92¢	$1.09	400
Above 330	10%	8¢	88¢	$1.14	1.00

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: Suez Canal

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Evergreen resumes Suez Canal transits after three years: SCAShipping Telegraph · 2 days agoMaersk hit by cyber breach involving legacy system 12/11/2026
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Limited return cargo and short season constrain Russia's Arctic container routefreshplaza.com · 44 h agoThe 2026 summer navigation season along Russia's Northern Sea Route (NSR) included scheduled container sailings by China's Sea Legend and a trial voyage by South Korea's PanStar Acro. Vessels maintained average speeds of approximately 15…
IDF forms new 'attack battalions' ahead of next stages of war in Gaza, LebanonThe Jerusalem Post | JPost.com · 41 h agoByAMIR BOHBOTNOVEMBER 12, 2026 21:24The IDF's 215th Fire Brigade, commanded by Col. R., is preparing for a major operational upgrade expected to reshape ground warfare as it marks 70 years since its establishment. Founded during the 1956…
AS FAR of Morocco to play South Africa’s Mamelodi Sundowns in the Final of the CAF Women's Champions League Egypt 2026 on Sunday afternoon@CAF_Online · 2 days agoPublished: Thursday, 12 November 2026 Africa's two most successful women's clubs, Morocco's AS FAR and South Africa's Mamelodi Sundowns, will battle for a record third continental title when they meet in the CAF Women's Champions League…
Explainer: Suez Canal held hostage on a budgetContainer News · 3 days agoCN Premium Articles Sticky News Explainer: Suez Canal held hostage on a budget November 11, 2026 FacebookTwitterWhatsAppLinkedinEmail The new expansion of the Suez Canal Three years after the Houthis seized the Galaxy Leader in November…
Mamelodi Sundowns Thrash Kawempe Muslim Ladies to Reach CAF FinalVoice of Nigeria · 47 h agoMamelodi Sundowns thrashed Uganda’s Kawempe Muslim Ladies 4-1 on Wednesday to reach the final of the 2026 CAF Women’s Champions League in Egypt, with Ronnel Donnelly scoring a stunning first-half hat-trick. The South African champions…

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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Search. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

About this market

VenueKalshi

Settles onIMF PortWatch

Trading closesNov 24, 2026 9:00 AM ET

Traded$122 (471 contracts)

Today$122

This week$122

At stake$122

Followed here sinceNov 13, 2026

The rules

If the number of transit calls through the Suez Canal as reported by the IMF PortWatch is above 280 from Nov 16, 2026 to Nov 22, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

The full rules are on the market's page at Kalshi.

Reading the odds

A prediction market trades contracts that pay $1 if something happens. Its price is the market's chance: a contract at 62¢ means traders give it 62%. Each number here is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.

For a question with many answers (who wins, which range a number lands in), the chances are scaled to add up to 100%. A price ladder ("above 4.25%, above 4.50% ...") gives a whole distribution: its median is where traders see an even chance either way.

Kalshi is a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; its money is counted in contracts, shown here as dollars at their price. Polymarket counts dollars. ForecastEx is Interactive Brokers' exchange, regulated by the CFTC; its contracts too are shown as dollars at their price. Crypto.com lists its markets on Crypto.com | Derivatives North America, a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; it reports the dollars traded. Where more than one asks the same question, each is shown, never averaged.

Prefer betting odds? Switch to American (+150) or decimal (2.50) odds at the top of the page.

Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Search, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Search index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Search Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions