Traffic through the Panama Canal? (11/9 - 11/15)

Kalshi Politics › World leaders Closes Tue 9:00 AM ET · $18.8K today · $106K traded · $33.1K at stake · prices read 11 min ago

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The odds

201.9median

160230

Median 201.9Middle half 195.6 – 207.2

How the odds have moved

Median: 192.3 on Nov 9, 201.9 now.

The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.

Every outcome

Outcome	Chance	Day	Bid	Ask	Pays	Contracts
Above 170	99%		98¢	99¢	$1.01	22.9K
Above 180	99%	▲ 2	98¢	99¢	$1.01	37.8K
Above 185	96%	▲ 2	95¢	96¢	$1.04	9.4K
Above 190	88%	▲ 4	87¢	88¢	$1.14	14.7K
Above 195	77%	▲ 21	75¢	79¢	$1.27	11.6K
Above 200	62%	▲ 17	60¢	63¢	$1.59	8.9K
Above 205	32%	▲ 5	31¢	32¢	$3.13	27.7K
Above 210	17%	▲ 5	16¢	18¢	$5.56	4.6K
Above 220	3%		2¢	3¢	$33.33	2.1K

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: Panama Canal

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Panama Canal Expands Daily Transits As Water ImprovesRFD-TV · 37 h agoPANAMA CITY, Panama (RFD-TV) — Grain and other agricultural shippers will have more capacity through the Panama Canal after officials increased daily transit availability and raised the maximum allowable draft for Neopanamax vessels. The…
Panama Canal increases daily transit capacity and vessel draft limitsfreshplaza.com · 3 days agoThe Panama Canal has increased transit availability and raised the permitted draft for Neopanamax vessels following improved water conditions and favourable hydrological projections. As of 9 November, the date of the announcement published…
The New Monroe Doctrine: Why Anti-Communism Still MattersHungarian Conservative · 20 h agoSkip to content Newsletter Webshop DONATE Conservative Calendar OPINION The New Monroe Doctrine: Why Anti-Communism Still Matters OPINION The New Monroe Doctrine: Why Anti-Communism Still Matters A container ship passes through the Panama…
Panama rejects US claim of joint control over canalchinadailyhk · 38 h agoCHINAGLOBAL EDITIONHONG KONGHOMENEWSHong KongNationAsiaWorldBusinessScienceSportsFOCUSLife & ArtIn-depth ChinaQuirkyPhotoGraphicsDataCulture HKGlobal WeeklyEye on AsiaSpecialFrom PR NewswireOPINIONEditorialsColumnistsJoephy ChanBill…
Panama Canal Raises Daily Transit Capacity as Water Conditions ImprovegCaptain · 3 days agoPhoto courtesy Panama Canal Authority Panama Canal Raises Daily Transit Capacity as Water Conditions Improve Mike Schuler Total Views: 187 November 11, 2026 The Panama Canal is increasing its daily transit capacity to 34 vessels and…
Panama Canal’s $2.6 billion terminal plan draws carrier interesttlimagazine.com · 3 days agoSubscribe to our free newsletter today to keep up to date with the latest transportation and logistics news. The Panama Canal Authority plans to name the companies prequalified to compete for 2 new container terminals before the end of…
America’s Most Successful Small-Caps: Meet The Winners Of The Iran WarForbes · 27 h agoMoneyDaily CoverAmerica’s Most Successful Small-Caps: Meet The Winners Of The Iran War Dorian LPG's newest and largest gas-toting ship.Credit: Dorian LPGByBrandon Kochkodin, Senior Writer. Brandon is a Florida-based Forbes senior reporter…
Stuart Coffield helps Geelong travellers find their next cruiseBallarat Times · 37 h agoExplore Kangaroo Island and savour Adelaide's charms, perhaps venturing to the Barossa. The Sapphire Coast Seacation is a delightful three-night getaway, perfect for a celebration. RIGHT: Geelong Travel director Stuart Coffield can help…
El Niño and Cost Shock Set Up a Tighter 2027 Banana MarketCMB News · 39 h agoBananaEl Niño and Cost Shock Set Up a Tighter 2027 Banana Market CMBCMB News EditorialEditorial DeskOctober 29, 2026Concise banana market analysis: El Niño risks in Latin America, Panama Canal constraints, rising input and shipping costs…
Vietnam Demand Supports South Africa Corn Export OutlookRFD-TV · 40 h agoPRETORIA, South Africa (RFD-TV) — South Africa is expected to remain an important corn exporter despite a smaller 2026/27 crop, supported by record carryover supplies and strong demand from regional and overseas buyers. USDA’s Foreign…
Panama Canal increases daily transit capacity to 34 slotsContainer News · 3 days agoNews Top Right Panama Canal increases daily transit capacity to 34 slots November 11, 2026 FacebookTwitterWhatsAppLinkedinEmail The Panama Canal has increased its daily transit capacity to 34 booking slots and raised the maximum allowable…
Cat loss accumulation could test LatAm insurers’ resilience, says MS Re’s CastagninoReinsuranceNe.ws · 46 h agoThe accumulation of catastrophe losses across Latin America and the Caribbean could erode insurers’ retentions, earnings and capital, while prompting reinsurers to reassess pricing and capacity, according to Lucas Castagnino, CUO Latin…

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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Search. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

About this market

VenueKalshi

Settles onIMF PortWatch

Trading closesNov 17, 2026 9:00 AM ET

Traded$106K (139,679 contracts)

Today$18.8K

This week$1K

At stake$33.1K

Followed here sinceNov 6, 2026

The rules

If the number of transit calls through the Panama Canal as reported by the IMF PortWatch is above 170 from Nov 9, 2026 to Nov 15, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

The full rules are on the market's page at Kalshi.

Reading the odds

A prediction market trades contracts that pay $1 if something happens. Its price is the market's chance: a contract at 62¢ means traders give it 62%. Each number here is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.

For a question with many answers (who wins, which range a number lands in), the chances are scaled to add up to 100%. A price ladder ("above 4.25%, above 4.50% ...") gives a whole distribution: its median is where traders see an even chance either way.

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Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Search, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Search index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Search Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions