Traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait? (10/26 - 11/1)
189.5median
140230
Median 189.5Middle half 176.9 – 200.8
Install
Will Trump visit China?
The odds
89%Before Dec 1, 2026
- Before Dec 1, 202689%▲ 1
- Before Jan 1, 202791%▼ 1
How the odds have moved
Before Dec 1, 2026: 92% on Oct 20, 89% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Why it moved
- Oct 21, 6 PM ETBefore Dec 1, 2026: 82% → 90%
The biggest swings over the chart's period, each with the headlines about the market's subject published in the hours before it. News and odds moving together is not proof one caused the other.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Before Dec 1, 2026 | 89% | ▲ 1 | 86¢ | 92¢ | $1.09 | 9.7K |
| Before Jan 1, 2027 | 91% | ▼ 1 | 88¢ | 93¢ | $1.08 | 4.6K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: China, Taiwan
Search ›- Donald Trump backs Orban for UN secretary-general with Russia, China supportUS President Donald Trump is pushing former Hungarian prime minister Viktor Orban as a candidate for UN secretary-general, according to a report citing sources from three countries. US officials reportedly approached Orban with the…
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Typhoon Champi kills one and injures more than 500 in Taiwan as it heads to ChinaSuper typhoon weakening but large parts of Taiwan, including Taipei, still mostly closed and flights cancelled Typhoon Champi swept past Taiwan on Saturday killing one person, injuring more than 500, and uprooting trees and severing power… -
Taiwan seafood products enter the Chinese mainland marketI came here from Taiwan over 30 years ago to sell squid. We've all witnessed Xiamen's development. This time, I've brought high-quality seafood products from Taiwan, including giant grouper, ... Taiwan seafood products enter the Chinese… -
Never to be undermined: Remembering Taiwan's return to ChinaOct 25 marks the Commemoration Day of Taiwan's Restoration. Eighty-one years ago, Taiwan returned to China after half a century of Japanese colonial rule. "The restoration of Taiwan was achieved ... Never to be undermined: Remembering… -
Typhoon Champi roars towards Taiwan, Japan and China bringing heavy rain and windTaiwan is bracing for powerful Typhoon Champi, which is set to make landfall on Friday with gusts of up to 173 kph (107mph) and a 320km radius that will envelope the entire island Taiwanese authorities have urged people to stay away from… -
Massive waves thrash Taiwan as super typhoon Champi slams islandWild weather slammed Taiwan and Japan on October 23rd, as Typhoon Champi neared the countries. Wild weather slammed Taiwan and Japan on October 23rd, as Typhoon Champi neared the countries. -
Russia Trains China’s Army for Taiwan While Beijing Fuels Moscow’s WarRussia is training Chinese soldiers in drone warfare and urban combat and has agreed to equip and train a battalion of Chinese paratroopers, while China supplies 90 percent of the sanctioned technology entering Russia. “For decades, Russia… -
Taiwan Warns of More Chinese Presence Around IslandChina is ramping up pressure on Taiwan, with Chinese military and Coast Guard vessels operating in waters around the island every day. What would you like to watch today? Taiwan Warns of More Chinese Presence Around Island What Pollsters… -
Tropical Storm Champi nears mainland China after battering Taiwan, JapanA powerful storm swept towards mainland China on Saturday after battering Taiwan and Japan’s southernmost islands, knocking out power to thousands of households and forcing the cancellation of hundreds of flights. Typhoon Champi was… -
China accused of pressuring families of Taiwan politicians ahead of key electionTaipei [Taiwan], October 24 (ANI): China is allegedly stepping up efforts to intimidate relatives of Taiwanese politicians it considers supporters of independence, raising concerns about possible interference in Taiwan’s upcoming… - October 25, 1945: China takes control of TaiwanOct 25, 2026 02:00 107 The ceremony in which Japan hands over control of Taiwan and the Penghu Islands is held in Taipei City Hall on October 25, 1945. Japanese Governor-General Rikichi Ando signs the surrender documents, and General Chen…
- Tropical Storm Champi nears China after battering Taiwan, JapanA powerful storm swept towards China yesterday after battering Taiwan and Japan’s southernmost islands, knocking out power to thousands of households and forcing the cancellation of hundreds of ... Choose a section, type your search topic…
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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Search. Prices read from the venues 4 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Search, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Search index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Search Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions