Traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait? (11/16 - 11/22)
190median
165240
Median 190Middle half 181.8 – 197.7
Install
Traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait? (11/9 - 11/15)
The odds
183.3median
175240
Median 183.3
How the odds have moved
Median: 192.9 on Nov 9, 183.3 now.
The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 180 | 67% | 66¢ | 67¢ | $1.49 | 26.2K | |
| Above 185 | 42% | ▼ 7 | 41¢ | 42¢ | $2.38 | 14.9K |
| Above 190 | 28% | ▼ 12 | 28¢ | 29¢ | $3.45 | 7.9K |
| Above 195 | 24% | ▼ 7 | 23¢ | 24¢ | $4.17 | 9.9K |
| Above 200 | 7% | ▼ 7 | 6¢ | 7¢ | $14.29 | 4.8K |
| Above 205 | 5% | 4¢ | 5¢ | $20.00 | 6.7K | |
| Above 210 | 2% | ▼ 2 | 1¢ | 2¢ | $50.00 | 22.9K |
| Above 220 | 2% | 1¢ | 2¢ | $50.00 | 1.0K | |
| Above 230 | 2% | 1¢ | 2¢ | $50.00 | 4.5K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Mandeb Strait
Search ›- Yemen’s Houthis hold mass funeral as they call for action to protect civiliansYemeni mourners stand next to the coffins of those reportedly killed in Saudi strikes on a village outside the capital Sanaa, in Sanaa, Yemen on Wednesday. Mohammed Huwais/AFP/Getty Images See all topics A mass funeral procession was held…
- Saudi oil production rebounds to near prewar levelsFrom Semafor GulfIn your inbox, every weekdaySign upSaudi oil production rebounds to near prewar levels Nov 12, 2026, 8:16am ESTPostEmailWhatsappKaram al-Masri/Reuters Saudi oil production rebounded in October, driving up overall output by…
- US backs UN renewal of Yemen sanctions, urges controls on Houthi weapons componentsWorldUS backs UN renewal of Yemen sanctions, urges controls on Houthi weapons components ByStaff WriterByStaff WriterFollow: Last updated: November 13, 2026 Share 2 Min Read SHARE The United States has backed the renewal of UN sanctions on…
- Saudi, Chinese officials discuss Houthi attacks, regional security and maritime navigationHome >SAUDI ARABIA Saudi, Chinese officials discuss Houthi attacks, regional security and maritime navigation November 13, 2026 | 08:55 AM Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan with Chinese Special Envoy for Middle East Affairs…
- Yemen’s Houthis say they attacked pumping station on Saudi Arabia’s East-West oil pipelineYemen’s Iran-aligned Houthis said on Thursday they had attacked a pumping station on the Saudi East-West oil pipeline, an oil facility in the Saudi Red Sea city of Yanbu, and an Aramco building in the capital Riyadh. The Saudi-led military…
- Saudi Arabia says debris from intercepted missiles falls in Mecca regionRegional Saudi Arabia says debris from intercepted missiles falls in Mecca region The missiles were launched towards the region and intercepted and destroyed, Saudi Arabia’s civil defence said in a statement. Published 3 hours ago on…
- The rise in the Houthis’ status within the “resistance axis” and in the regional arenaPublished: 12/11/2026 A Houthi delegation meets with Iran's former supreme leader Ali Khamenei in 2019 (al-Masirah Telegram channel, August 14, 2019) Abd al-Malik al-Houthi delivers a speech (al-Masirah Telegram account, August 30, 2026)…
- Saudi Arabia says debris from intercepted missiles fell in Mecca regionEditors' Picks World Saudi Arabia says debris from intercepted missiles fell in Mecca region November 12, 2026 | 6:39 pm COMMONS.WIKIMEDIA.ORG SAUDI ARABIA — Saudi Arabia said debris from two ballistic missiles intercepted by its air…
- Houthis hold mass funeral after deadly strike in YemenForeign Policy Houthis hold mass funeral after deadly strike in Yemen OMM Newsroom 12 Nov 2026, 18:06 3 min read — Photo: CNN World A funeral was held in Sanaa for at least 43 people whom Houthi-linked media said were killed in a Saudi-led…
- Saudi intercepts two Houthi missiles targeting Mecca regionSAUDI Arabia said its air defences intercepted and destroyed two ballistic missiles launched by Yemen's Iran-aligned Houthi movement towards the Mecca region, with debris falling at several locations, including Sabuhah village. Saudi civil…
- Iran’s threat to destroy American military facilities overseas could put several African countries in the line of fireIran's Major General Mohsen Rezaei speaks during an interview with Press TV. (Press TV/Screenshot) Iran has warned it may strike US military bases far from the Middle East in response to potential US attacks, raising security concerns for…
- Saudi Arabia says it intercepted Houthi missiles and drones — Cyprus MailNews Around the World Saudi Arabia says it intercepted Houthi missiles and drones — Cyprus Mail UA.NEWS 12 November 2026 01:50 Saudi Arabia said its air defence forces on Wednesday intercepted missiles and drones launched by the Houthis…
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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Search. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Search, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Search index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Search Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions