2028 Presidential race: exact outcome

Kalshi Elections › President 2028 Closes Jan 20, 2029 · $14 today · $6.3K traded · $3.5K at stake · prices read 2 h ago

The odds

10%AOC defeats JD Vance
  • AOC defeats JD Vance10%
  • Jon Ossoff defeats JD Vance9%
  • JD Vance defeats Gavin Newsom8%▼ 1
  • Gavin Newsom defeats JD Vance6%▼ 2
  • JD Vance defeats AOC5%
  • Kamala Harris defeats JD Vance5%
  • Gavin Newsom defeats Marco Rubio4%
  • AOC defeats Marco Rubio4%
  • Josh Shapiro defeats JD Vance3%
  • JD Vance defeats Kamala Harris3%▼ 1
  • Marco Rubio defeats AOC2%
  • Andy Beshear defeats JD Vance2%
20 more
  • JD Vance defeats Andy Beshear2%
  • Andy Beshear defeats Marco Rubio2%
  • James Talarico defeats JD Vance2%
  • JD Vance defeats James Talarico2%
  • JD Vance defeats Jon Ossoff2%
  • Kamala Harris defeats Marco Rubio2%
  • Marco Rubio defeats Kamala Harris2%
  • Pete Buttigieg defeats JD Vance2%
  • JD Vance defeats Pete Buttigieg2%
  • Pete Buttigieg defeats Marco Rubio2%
  • Marco Rubio defeats Gavin Newsom1%
  • Marco Rubio defeats Andy Beshear1%
  • James Talarico defeats Marco Rubio1%
  • Marco Rubio defeats James Talarico1%
  • Jon Ossoff defeats Marco Rubio1%
  • JD Vance defeats Josh Shapiro1%
  • Josh Shapiro defeats Marco Rubio1%
  • Marco Rubio defeats Josh Shapiro1%
  • Marco Rubio defeats Pete Buttigieg1%
  • Marco Rubio defeats Jon Ossoff1%

How the odds have moved

Not enough history yet.

Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Every outcome

Outcome Chance Day Bid Ask Pays Contracts
AOC defeats JD Vance 10% 9¢ 10¢ $10.00 11.7K
Jon Ossoff defeats JD Vance 9% 8¢ 9¢ $11.11 7.0K
JD Vance defeats Gavin Newsom 8% ▼ 1 7¢ 9¢ $11.11 21.0K
Gavin Newsom defeats JD Vance 6% ▼ 2 5¢ 7¢ $14.29 20.6K
JD Vance defeats AOC 5% 4¢ 5¢ $20.00 8.1K
Kamala Harris defeats JD Vance 5% 4¢ 5¢ $20.00 2.5K
Gavin Newsom defeats Marco Rubio 4% 2¢ 5¢ $20.00 12.9K
AOC defeats Marco Rubio 4% 3¢ 4¢ $25.00 1.6K
Josh Shapiro defeats JD Vance 3% 2¢ 4¢ $25.00 701
JD Vance defeats Kamala Harris 3% ▼ 1 2¢ 3¢ $33.33 5.8K
Marco Rubio defeats AOC 2% 1¢ 3¢ $33.33 5.1K
Andy Beshear defeats JD Vance 2% 1¢ 2¢ $50.00 762
JD Vance defeats Andy Beshear 2% 1¢ 2¢ $50.00 97.00
Andy Beshear defeats Marco Rubio 2% 1¢ 2¢ $50.00 4.5K
James Talarico defeats JD Vance 2% 1¢ 2¢ $50.00 748
JD Vance defeats James Talarico 2% 1¢ 2¢ $50.00 1.4K
JD Vance defeats Jon Ossoff 2% 1¢ 2¢ $50.00 500
Kamala Harris defeats Marco Rubio 2% 1¢ 2¢ $50.00
Marco Rubio defeats Kamala Harris 2% 1¢ 2¢ $50.00 788
Pete Buttigieg defeats JD Vance 2% 1¢ 2¢ $50.00 2.1K
JD Vance defeats Pete Buttigieg 2% 1¢ 2¢ $50.00 205
Pete Buttigieg defeats Marco Rubio 2% 1¢ 2¢ $50.00 1.4K
Marco Rubio defeats Gavin Newsom 1% 2¢ $50.00 15.9K
Marco Rubio defeats Andy Beshear 1% 2¢ $50.00 494
James Talarico defeats Marco Rubio 1% 2¢ $50.00 494
Marco Rubio defeats James Talarico 1% 2¢ $50.00 453
Jon Ossoff defeats Marco Rubio 1% 2¢ $50.00 6.4K
JD Vance defeats Josh Shapiro 1% 2¢ $50.00 484
Josh Shapiro defeats Marco Rubio 1% 2¢ $50.00 155
Marco Rubio defeats Josh Shapiro 1% 2¢ $50.00 201
Marco Rubio defeats Pete Buttigieg 1% 2¢ $50.00 594
Marco Rubio defeats Jon Ossoff 1% 1¢ $100.00 1.6K

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news

No recent headlines name this market's subject.

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Elections › President 2028

Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028

16%Gavin Newsom
  • Gavin Newsom16%▲ 1
  • Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez15%
  • Jon Ossoff15%▲ 1
50 more
  • Kamala Harris7%▼ 1
  • Josh Shapiro6%
  • Pete Buttigieg5%
  • Andy Beshear3%
  • James Talarico3%
  • Mark Kelly2%
  • Wes Moore2%
  • Raphael Warnock2%
  • Bernie Sanders2%
  • Rahm Emanuel2%
  • Ro Khanna1%
  • J.B. Pritzker1%
  • Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson1%
  • Chelsea Clinton1%
  • Cory Booker1%
  • Gretchen Whitmer1%
  • Jon Stewart1%
  • Chris Murphy<1%
  • Michelle Obama<1%
  • Ruben Gallego<1%
  • Chris Van Hollen<1%
  • Mark Cuban<1%
  • Roy Cooper<1%
  • Barack Obama<1%
  • Stephen A. Smith<1%
  • Gina Raimondo<1%
  • Zohran Mamdani<1%
  • Jared Polis<1%
  • Hillary Clinton<1%
  • Phil Murphy<1%
  • LeBron James<1%
  • Hunter Biden<1%
  • Jasmine Crockett<1%
  • Abigail Spanberger<1%
  • Hakeem Jeffries<1%
  • Elissa Slotkin<1%
  • Josh Stein<1%
  • Mitch Landrieu<1%
  • Tim Walz<1%
  • John Fetterman<1%
  • Liz Cheney<1%
  • George Clooney<1%
  • MrBeast<1%
  • Oprah Winfrey<1%
  • Andrew Yang<1%
  • Beto O’Rourke<1%
  • Kim Kardashian<1%
  • Graham Platner<1%
  • Adam Schiff<1%
  • Alex Padilla<1%
Elections › President 2028

Republican Presidential Nominee 2028

44%J.D. Vance
  • J.D. Vance44%▼ 2
  • Marco Rubio15%▲ 1
  • Tucker Carlson3%
40 more
  • Ron DeSantis3%▼ 1
  • Ted Cruz2%
  • Donald Trump2%
  • Donald Trump Jr.2%
  • Ivanka Trump1%
  • Thomas Massie1%
  • Brian Kemp1%
  • Tulsi Gabbard<1%
  • Pete Hegseth<1%
  • Glenn Youngkin<1%
  • Josh Hawley<1%
  • Rand Paul<1%
  • Marjorie Taylor Greene<1%
  • Tom Cotton<1%
  • Robert F. Kennedy Jr.<1%
  • Vivek Ramaswamy<1%
  • Katie Britt<1%
  • Candace Owens<1%
  • Nikki Haley<1%
  • Sarah Huckabee Sanders<1%
  • Greg Abbott<1%
  • Byron Donalds<1%
  • Elise Stefanik<1%
  • Elon Musk<1%
  • Kristi Noem<1%
  • Mike Pence<1%
  • Steve Bannon<1%
  • Eric Trump<1%
  • Joe Kent<1%
  • John N. Kennedy<1%
  • John McEntee<1%
  • Matt Gaetz<1%
  • John Thune<1%
  • Tom Brady<1%
  • Erika Kirk<1%
  • Kim Kardashian<1%
  • Tim Scott<1%
  • Mike Johnson<1%
  • Doug Burgum<1%
  • Rick Scott<1%
Elections › President 2028

Presidential Election Winner 2028

20%JD Vance
  • JD Vance20%
  • Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez13%
  • Jon Ossoff10%▼ 1
51 more
  • Gavin Newsom9%
  • Marco Rubio9%▲ 1
  • Kamala Harris4%
  • Josh Shapiro3%
  • Pete Buttigieg3%
  • Andy Beshear2%
  • Ron DeSantis2%
  • Tucker Carlson2%
  • Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson2%
  • James Talarico1%
  • Donald Trump1%
  • Mark Kelly1%
  • Raphael Warnock1%
  • Wes Moore1%
  • Ro Khanna1%
  • Thomas Massie1%
  • JB Pritzker1%
  • Ted Cruz1%
  • Rahm Emanuel1%
  • Ivanka Trump1%
  • Donald Trump Jr.1%
  • Gretchen Whitmer<1%
  • Jamie Dimon<1%
  • Glenn Youngkin<1%
  • Greg Abbott<1%
  • Elon Musk<1%
  • Michelle Obama<1%
  • Stephen Smith<1%
  • Tulsi Gabbard<1%
  • Nikki Haley<1%
  • Tim Walz<1%
  • Vivek Ramaswamy<1%
  • LeBron James<1%
  • Kim Kardashian<1%
  • Zohran Mamdani<1%
  • Eric Trump<1%
  • Pete Hegseth<1%
  • Jalen Brunson<1%
  • Abigail Spanberger<1%
  • Hakeem Jeffries<1%
  • Elissa Slotkin<1%
  • Adam Schiff<1%
  • Josh Stein<1%
  • Alex Padilla<1%
  • Candace Owens<1%
  • Tim Scott<1%
  • Mike Johnson<1%
  • Doug Burgum<1%
  • Tom Cotton<1%
  • John N. Kennedy<1%
  • Rick Scott<1%

Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Search. Prices read from the venues 4 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Search, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Search index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Search Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use.