National Book Award for Nonfiction (2026 | Nonfiction)

Kalshi Culture › Awards Closes Nov 18, 2027 · $577 traded · $503 at stake · prices read 3 h ago

The odds

15%Mother Tongue
  • Mother Tongue15%
  • Spawning Season: An Experiment in Queer Parenthood8%
  • Huna: A Memoir of Revolution, Prison, and Becoming4%
  • Let the Poets Govern: A Declaration of Freedom3%
  • The Midnight Special: The Secret Prison History of American Music2%
  • Seasons of Fury: Four Families and the Rise of Islamophobia in America1%
  • Dangerous, Dirty, Violent, and Young: A Fugitive Family in the Revolutionary Underground1%
  • The War Within a War: The Black Struggle in Vietnam and at Home1%
  • The Evolution of Fire: Essays on Crisis and Becoming1%
  • A Dead White: An Argument Against White Paint1%
  • Tie1%

How the odds have moved

Mother Tongue: 15% on Oct 19, 15% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Every outcome

Outcome Chance Day Bid Ask Pays Contracts
Mother Tongue 15% 1¢ 88¢ $1.14 1.4K
Spawning Season: An Experiment in Queer Parenthood 8% 1¢ 90¢ $1.11 1.9K
Huna: A Memoir of Revolution, Prison, and Becoming 4% 1¢ 34¢ $2.94 1.5K
Let the Poets Govern: A Declaration of Freedom 3% 1¢ 4¢ $25.00 1.3K
The Midnight Special: The Secret Prison History of American Music 2% 1¢ 18¢ $5.56 1.3K
Seasons of Fury: Four Families and the Rise of Islamophobia in America 1% 2¢ $50.00 1.5K
Dangerous, Dirty, Violent, and Young: A Fugitive Family in the Revolutionary Underground 1% 62¢ $1.61 1.7K
The War Within a War: The Black Struggle in Vietnam and at Home 1% 2¢ $50.00 1.5K
The Evolution of Fire: Essays on Crisis and Becoming 1% 2¢ $50.00 1.5K
A Dead White: An Argument Against White Paint 1% 38¢ $2.63 2.2K
Tie 1% 2¢ $50.00 1.3K

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: National Book Award, Nonfiction, Mother Tongue

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Oscar Winner: Best Picture (2027)

44%The Odyssey
  • The Odyssey44%▼ 2
  • You Can See Everything28%▼ 2
  • The Black Ball13%
38 more
  • Dune: Part Three6%▼ 1
  • Digger1%
  • Wild Horse Nine1%
  • Artificial1%
  • Project Hail Mary<1%
  • Disclosure Day<1%
  • Fjord<1%
  • The Social Reckoning<1%
  • Michael<1%
  • The Entertainment System Is Down<1%
  • Narnia: The Magician's Nephew<1%
  • Werwulf<1%
  • Behemoth<1%
  • Josephine<1%
  • Sense and Sensibility<1%
  • I Love Boosters<1%
  • The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth<1%
  • Avengers: Doomsday<1%
  • The Death of Robin Hood<1%
  • The Drama<1%
  • Ink<1%
  • All of a Sudden<1%
  • Cry to Heaven<1%
  • Tie<1%
  • 1949 / Fatherland<1%
  • Paper Tiger<1%
  • Hope<1%
  • Minotaur<1%
  • Parallel Tales<1%
  • Jack of Spades<1%
  • Obsession<1%
  • The Debut<1%
  • Elsinore<1%
  • The Invite<1%
  • Club Kid<1%
  • Being Heumann<1%
  • Primetime<1%
  • Tender Loving Care<1%

Oscar nominees: Best Picture (2027)

98%The Odyssey
  • The Odyssey98%
  • The Black Ball95%
  • Wild Horse Nine91%▲ 1
50 more
  • Dune: Part Three83%
  • You Can See Everything79%▼ 4
  • Project Hail Mary76%▼ 1
  • The Debut74%▼ 1
  • The Invite61%▲ 1
  • I Play Rocky58%▲ 4
  • Artificial56%▲ 1
  • All of a Sudden37%▲ 1
  • Fjord35%
  • Obsession33%
  • Elsinore30%▼ 4
  • Wildwood27%▼ 6
  • Digger23%▲ 1
  • Club Kid22%▲ 4
  • The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth22%▲ 1
  • Being Heumann18%▲ 1
  • Behemoth16%▼ 1
  • Possible Love16%▼ 2
  • Michael12%
  • Primetime10%▼ 2
  • Your Mother Your Mother Your Mother7%▼ 1
  • Werwulf6%
  • Josephine6%▲ 1
  • Sense and Sensibility6%
  • Ink6%▼ 1
  • Saturn Return5%
  • Cry to Heaven4%
  • Minotaur4%
  • Avengers: Doomsday4%▲ 1
  • The Drama4%▲ 1
  • Paper Tiger4%
  • The Whisper Man4%
  • Clarissa4%▲ 1
  • Misty Green4%
  • Disclosure Day3%
  • Parallel Tales3%
  • 1949 / Fatherland3%▼ 1
  • Rose3%
  • The Uprising3%
  • Spider-Man: Brand New Day3%
  • The Death of Robin Hood3%
  • Backrooms3%▲ 1
  • The Entertainment System Is Down2%
  • Hope2%
  • I Love Boosters2%
  • Jack of Spades2%
  • Tony2%
  • Bucking Fastard2%
  • The Social Reckoning1%
  • Narnia: The Magician's Nephew1%

Oscars 2027: Best Original Screenplay Nominations

90%Wild Horse Nine
  • Wild Horse Nine90%▼ 5
  • The Debut89%▲ 6
  • Club Kid60%▼ 1
15 more
  • Obsession50%▼ 4
  • Fjord45%▼ 3
  • Elsinore34%▼ 3
  • The Drama23%▲ 3
  • Behemoth!21%▼ 3
  • Teenage Sex and Death at Camp Miasma19%▲ 2
  • Digger13%
  • Josephine12%▲ 2
  • Forgotten Island5%▲ 1
  • The Odyssey4%
  • Fatherland4%
  • The Invite4%
  • A Place in Hell4%
  • The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth3%
  • The Black Ball2%

Oscars 2027: Best Supporting Actress Nominations

88%Anne Hathaway
  • Anne Hathaway88%
  • Penélope Cruz77%
  • Samantha Morton72%▲ 3
15 more
  • Tao Okamoto61%▼ 2
  • Amanda Seyfried41%▲ 1
  • Kate O'Flynn40%▲ 7
  • Olivia Colman32%▲ 4
  • Mariana di Girolamo28%▼ 4
  • Sandra Hüller25%▲ 1
  • Parker Posey20%▼ 2
  • Merritt Wever18%▼ 3
  • Gemma Chan10%▼ 3
  • Zendaya9%▲ 2
  • Danielle Deadwyler7%▼ 6
  • Isabella Rossellini7%▲ 1
  • Betty Gilpin6%▲ 2
  • Margaret Qualley4%
  • Inde Navarrette1%

Oscars 2027: Best Documentary Short Film Nominations

75%The Baddest Speechwriter of All
  • The Baddest Speechwriter of All75%▲ 12
  • Water Cooler60%▲ 31
  • Listen58%▲ 31
7 more
  • One Last Order55%▼ 4
  • Oh Whale53%▲ 10
  • A Derailment43%▲ 1
  • The Tuners37%
  • We're Fine30%▲ 4
  • A Short Documentary About a Giant Pencil21%▼ 21
  • A Wolf in the Suburbs20%▼ 6

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