Traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait? (11/16 - 11/22)

Kalshi Politics › World leaders Closes Nov 24 · $223 today · $223 traded · $223 at stake · prices read 9 h ago

Embed

The odds

190median

165240

Median 190Middle half 181.8 – 197.7

How the odds have moved

Median: 190 on Nov 13, 190 now.

The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.

Every outcome

Outcome	Chance	Bid	Ask	Pays	Contracts
Above 170	94%	91¢	97¢	$1.03
Above 175	89%	87¢	91¢	$1.10	250
Above 180	80%	75¢	85¢	$1.18
Above 185	66%	61¢	71¢	$1.41
Above 190	50%	45¢	55¢	$1.82
Above 195	33%	29¢	36¢	$2.78
Above 200	19%	15¢	22¢	$4.55
Above 205	13%	10¢	15¢	$6.67
Above 210	6%	3¢	9¢	$11.11
Above 220	3%		6¢	$16.67
Above 230	3%		6¢	$16.67

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: Mandeb Strait

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Yemen’s Houthis hold mass funeral as they call for action to protect civiliansCNN · 2 days agoYemeni mourners stand next to the coffins of those reportedly killed in Saudi strikes on a village outside the capital Sanaa, in Sanaa, Yemen on Wednesday. Mohammed Huwais/AFP/Getty Images See all topics A mass funeral procession was held…
Saudi oil production rebounds to near prewar levelssemafor.com · 2 days agoFrom Semafor GulfIn your inbox, every weekdaySign upSaudi oil production rebounds to near prewar levels Nov 12, 2026, 8:16am ESTPostEmailWhatsappKaram al-Masri/Reuters Saudi oil production rebounded in October, driving up overall output by…
US backs UN renewal of Yemen sanctions, urges controls on Houthi weapons componentsTaarifa Rwanda: · 37 h agoWorldUS backs UN renewal of Yemen sanctions, urges controls on Houthi weapons components ByStaff WriterByStaff WriterFollow: Last updated: November 13, 2026 Share 2 Min Read SHARE The United States has backed the renewal of UN sanctions on…
Saudi, Chinese officials discuss Houthi attacks, regional security and maritime navigationSaudi Gazette · 32 h agoHome >SAUDI ARABIA Saudi, Chinese officials discuss Houthi attacks, regional security and maritime navigation November 13, 2026 | 08:55 AM Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan with Chinese Special Envoy for Middle East Affairs…
Yemen’s Houthis say they attacked pumping station on Saudi Arabia’s East-West oil pipelinecyprus-mail.com · 42 h agoYemen’s Iran-aligned Houthis said on Thursday they had attacked a pumping station on the Saudi East-West oil pipeline, an oil facility in the Saudi Red Sea city of Yanbu, and an Aramco building in the capital Riyadh. The Saudi-led military…
Saudi Arabia says debris from intercepted missiles falls in Mecca regionAriana News · 2 days agoRegional Saudi Arabia says debris from intercepted missiles falls in Mecca region The missiles were launched towards the region and intercepted and destroyed, Saudi Arabia’s civil defence said in a statement. Published 3 hours ago on…
The rise in the Houthis’ status within the “resistance axis” and in the regional arenaterrorism-info.org.il · 2 days agoPublished: 12/11/2026 A Houthi delegation meets with Iran's former supreme leader Ali Khamenei in 2019 (al-Masirah Telegram channel, August 14, 2019) Abd al-Malik al-Houthi delivers a speech (al-Masirah Telegram account, August 30, 2026)…
Saudi Arabia says debris from intercepted missiles fell in Mecca regionBusinessWorld Online · 2 days agoEditors' Picks World Saudi Arabia says debris from intercepted missiles fell in Mecca region November 12, 2026 | 6:39 pm COMMONS.WIKIMEDIA.ORG SAUDI ARABIA — Saudi Arabia said debris from two ballistic missiles intercepted by its air…
Houthis hold mass funeral after deadly strike in YemenOperative Information Center · 2 days agoForeign Policy Houthis hold mass funeral after deadly strike in Yemen OMM Newsroom 12 Nov 2026, 18:06 3 min read — Photo: CNN World A funeral was held in Sanaa for at least 43 people whom Houthi-linked media said were killed in a Saudi-led…
Saudi intercepts two Houthi missiles targeting Mecca regionThe Vibes · 3 days agoSAUDI Arabia said its air defences intercepted and destroyed two ballistic missiles launched by Yemen's Iran-aligned Houthi movement towards the Mecca region, with debris falling at several locations, including Sabuhah village. Saudi civil…
Iran’s threat to destroy American military facilities overseas could put several African countries in the line of fireBusiness Insider Africa · 2 days agoIran's Major General Mohsen Rezaei speaks during an interview with Press TV. (Press TV/Screenshot) Iran has warned it may strike US military bases far from the Middle East in response to potential US attacks, raising security concerns for…
Saudi Arabia says it intercepted Houthi missiles and drones — Cyprus MailUA.NEWS · 2 days agoNews Around the World Saudi Arabia says it intercepted Houthi missiles and drones — Cyprus Mail UA.NEWS 12 November 2026 01:50 Saudi Arabia said its air defence forces on Wednesday intercepted missiles and drones launched by the Houthis…

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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Search. Prices read from the venues 4 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

About this market

VenueKalshi

Settles onIMF PortWatch

Trading closesNov 24, 2026 9:00 AM ET

Traded$223 (250 contracts)

Today$223

This week$223

At stake$223

Followed here sinceNov 13, 2026

The rules

If the number of transit calls through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait as reported by the IMF PortWatch is above 170 from Nov 16, 2026 to Nov 22, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

The full rules are on the market's page at Kalshi.

Reading the odds

A prediction market trades contracts that pay $1 if something happens. Its price is the market's chance: a contract at 62¢ means traders give it 62%. Each number here is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.

For a question with many answers (who wins, which range a number lands in), the chances are scaled to add up to 100%. A price ladder ("above 4.25%, above 4.50% ...") gives a whole distribution: its median is where traders see an even chance either way.

Kalshi is a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; its money is counted in contracts, shown here as dollars at their price. Polymarket counts dollars. ForecastEx is Interactive Brokers' exchange, regulated by the CFTC; its contracts too are shown as dollars at their price. Crypto.com lists its markets on Crypto.com | Derivatives North America, a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; it reports the dollars traded. Where more than one asks the same question, each is shown, never averaged.

Prefer betting odds? Switch to American (+150) or decimal (2.50) odds at the top of the page.

Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Search, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Search index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Search Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions