What will S&P 500 (SPX) hit by end of December?

Polymarket Finance › Indexes Closes Dec 31 · $4.6K today · $435K traded · $154K at stake · prices read 3 min ago

The odds

41%↑ $8,000

S&P 500 now 7,623.68 −0.52%

Traders see as low as 7,298.

Reaches 8,00041%
Reaches 8,20021%
Reaches 8,6006%
Reaches 9,0003%
Reaches 9,3002%
Reaches 10,0001%

Falls to 7,40066%
Falls to 7,20035%
Falls to 7,00032%
Falls to 6,20011%
Falls to 6,00011%
Falls to 5,8004%
Falls to 5,2003%
Falls to 4,5003%

Already reached: ↑ $7,800, ↑ $7,600, ↑ $7,400, ↓ $6,600, ↓ $6,400

How the odds have moved

Falls to 7,000: 23% on Oct 20, 32% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Polymarket. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Every outcome

Outcome	Chance	Day	Bid	Ask	Pays	Traded
✓ ↑ $7,400	>99%	▲ 9	100¢	100¢		$8.9K
✓ ↑ $7,600	>99%	▲ 7	100¢	100¢		$33.2K
✓ ↑ $7,800	>99%	▲ 18	100¢	100¢		$9.4K
↑ $8,000	41%	▼ 8	36¢	45¢	$2.22	$908
↑ $8,200	21%	▼ 4	19¢	23¢	$4.35	$27.2K
↑ $8,600	6%		5¢	6¢	$16.67	$41.5K
↑ $9,000	3%	▼ 1	1¢	5¢	$18.87	$155
↑ $9,300	2%		2¢	2¢	$50.00	$15.3K
↑ $10,000	1%		1¢	2¢	$62.50	$467
↓ $4,500	3%	▲ 1	2¢	3¢	$32.26	$69.5K
↓ $5,200	3%	▲ 1	3¢	4¢	$27.03	$81.6K
↓ $5,800	4%		4¢	4¢	$25.00	$50.9K
↓ $6,000	11%	▲ 1	10¢	13¢	$7.69	$6.5K
↓ $6,200	11%		10¢	11¢	$9.35	$74.7K
✓ ↓ $6,400	>99%	▲ 7	100¢	100¢		$8.6K
✓ ↓ $6,600	>99%	▲ 8	100¢	100¢
↓ $7,000	32%	▲ 1	26¢	38¢	$2.63	$3.2K
↓ $7,200	35%	▲ 4	30¢	39¢	$2.56	$2K
↓ $7,400	66%	▲ 10	53¢	79¢	$1.27	$846

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: S&P 500, stocks

Search ›

The S&P 500 is forming a bearish chart pattern. Can it snap out of it?CNBC · 44 h agoThe S & P 500 has struggled to break decisively above 7,800 since first reaching that area in late July. Along the way, ...
How much do stocks move after earnings? I measured 12,353 S&P 500 reportsDEV Community · 21 h agoI measured the stock move on the first trading session after every quarterly earnings release by current S&P 500 companies since April 2020: 12,353 reports from 493 companies. The average move was 4.6% and the median 3.3%, about three…
Two-Thirds of S&P 500 Stocks Rose on Thursday, but the Index Still Fell — Exposing the Risk Hiding in Your Portfolio24/7 Wall St. · 21 h agoOn Thursday, October 22, 2026, 337 S&P 500 stocks finished higher. Only 159 declined and 1 was unchanged across 497 tracked constituents. The index still closed lower. Most stocks rose and the benchmark fell, and that mismatch is a risk…
10% Of S&P 500 Stocks Sink Into 'Lost Decade' — Do You Own Them?Investor's Business Daily · 2 days agoBREAKING: Dow Futures Fall After AI Stock Sell-Off "Stocks always go up," is a popular adage during an S&P 500 bull market. Too bad it isn't true. Roughly a tenth of the stocks in the S&P 500 are down in the past 10 years, says an…
Should You Forget the Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (VOO) and Buy the Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF (RSP) Instead?The Motley Fool · 45 h agoWith the broader benchmark S&P 500 index roughly four years into a bull market, many investors have become increasingly concerned about a looming reset that could lead to a correction or even a bear market. Furthermore, the S&P 500 is now…
Midday Pulse: S&P 500 top intraday losersSeeking Alpha · 44 h agoTrack Friday’s steepest S&P 500 losers as tech lags on AI spending fears. Here's a quick look at the stocks seeing the steepest intraday declines across the S&P 500 (SP500) on Friday. Wall Street's major averages were mixed on Friday…
Midday Pulse: S&P 500 top intraday gainersSeeking Alpha · 44 h agoS&P 500 intraday winners: see Friday’s top gainers as tech lags on AI spending fears. Here's a quick look at the stocks seeing the strongest intraday gains across the S&P 500 (SP500) on Friday. Wall Street's major averages were mixed on…
4,181 Vanguard S&P 500 ETF $VOO Shares Bought by Albion Financial Group UTDefense World · 29 h agoAlbion Financial Group UT lifted its holdings in shares of Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (NYSEARCA:VOO – Free Report) by 1.2% during the 3rd quarter, according to the company in its most recent filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission…
Vanguard S&P 500 ETF $VOO Stock Position Raised by Magnus Financial Group LLCMarkets Daily · 23 h agoPosted by Tristan Rich on Oct 24th, 2026 Shares of NYSEARCA VOO opened at $698.58 on Friday. Vanguard S&P 500 ETF has a 12-month low of $578.46 and a 12-month high of $718.47. The company has a market capitalization of $1.03 trillion, a PE…
State Street SPDR Portfolio S&P 500 ETF $SPYM Position Raised by MLP3 LLCMarkets Daily · 22 h agoPosted by Mitch Edgeman on Oct 24th, 2026 Shares of NYSEARCA SPYM traded down $0.48 during trading on Friday, reaching $89.45. The company had a trading volume of 15,767,142 shares, compared to its average volume of 13,508,292. State…
State Street SPDR Portfolio S&P 500 ETF $SPYM Stock Acquired by BIP Wealth LLCDefense World · 29 h agoBIP Wealth LLC grew its holdings in State Street SPDR Portfolio S&P 500 ETF (NYSEARCA:SPYM – Free Report) by 5.3% in the third quarter, according to the company in its most recent 13F filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission. The…
How Much Do Stocks Move After Earnings? Evidence From 12,353 S&P 500 ReportsEquibles · 21 h agoShort interest & flow Funds & market activity Methods, sample dates, limitations, and source references are described in the study below. Each table's CSV download contains its published cells, not the underlying raw dataset…

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Finance › Indexes

What will S&P 500 (SPY) hit Week of October 19 2026?

$772.50high with an even chance

Traders see an even chance of trading as high as $772.50 and as low as $757.50.

Reaches $770>99%
Reaches $775<1%

Falls to $765>99%
Falls to $760>99%

Already reached: ↑ $765

Finance › Indexes

Will the S&P finish positive this year? (2026)

91%chance

Finance › Indexes

IBOVESPA closing level on Oct 26, 2026

215,529median

189,000221,000

Median 215,529Middle half 211,049 – 218,882

Finance › Indexes

10Y US Treasury yield on Dec 31, 2027?

4.61%median

1.74%8.24%

Median 4.61%Middle half 4.06% – 6.66%

Finance › Indexes

What will S&P 500 (SPY) hit in October 2026?

$776.23high with an even chance

Traders see an even chance of trading as high as $776.23 and as low as $750.29.

Reaches $770>99%
Reaches $78020%

Falls to $760>99%
Falls to $75049%

Already reached: ↑ $780, ↑ $770, ↓ $760, ↑ $770, ↑ $770, ↓ $770

Finance › Indexes

How high will the S&P get this year? (2026)

49%8,000 or above

Reaches 8,00049%
Reaches 8,20020%

Already reached: 7,800 or above

Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Search. Prices read from the venues 2 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

About this market

VenuePolymarket

Settles onfinance.yahoo.com

Trading closesDec 31, 2026 4:00 PM ET

Traded$435K

Today$4.6K

This week$9.1K

At stake$154K

In the news228 headlines today, 3,556 this week

Followed here sinceOct 19, 2026

The rules

What will S&P 500 (SPX) hit by end of December 2026?

The full rules are on the market's page at Polymarket.

Prices it is about

S&P 500^GSPC · settles on its price7,623.68−0.52%
S&P FuturesES=F · tracks it7,659.75−0.58%
IVVIVV · tracks it763.25−0.54%
SPYSPY · tracks it759.97−0.52%
VOOVOO · tracks it698.58−0.53%

From 4Search Finance. Prices may be delayed up to 15 min. Not investment advice.

Reading the odds

A prediction market trades contracts that pay $1 if something happens. Its price is the market's chance: a contract at 62¢ means traders give it 62%. Each number here is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.

For a question with many answers (who wins, which range a number lands in), the chances are scaled to add up to 100%. A price ladder ("above 4.25%, above 4.50% ...") gives a whole distribution: its median is where traders see an even chance either way.

Kalshi is a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; its money is counted in contracts, shown here as dollars at their price. Polymarket counts dollars. ForecastEx is Interactive Brokers' exchange, regulated by the CFTC; its contracts too are shown as dollars at their price. Crypto.com lists its markets on Crypto.com | Derivatives North America, a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; it reports the dollars traded. Where more than one asks the same question, each is shown, never averaged.

Prefer betting odds? Switch to American (+150) or decimal (2.50) odds at the top of the page.

Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Search, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Search index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Search Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use.