Next Fable Model (5.2+): Text Arena Debut?

Polymarket Tech › AI Closes Jun 30, 2027 · $3.5K today · $67.1K traded · $12.3K at stake · prices read 25 min ago

The odds

1,524median

1,4901,550

Median 1,524Middle half 1,512 – 1,535

How the odds have moved

Median: 1,524 on Oct 20, 1,524 now.

The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Polymarket.

Every outcome

Outcome	Chance	Day	Bid	Ask	Pays	Traded
1500+	93%		92¢	93¢	$1.08	$8.9K
1510+	80%	▲ 1	79¢	80¢	$1.25	$21.4K
1520+	59%	▲ 3	57¢	61¢	$1.64	$12K
1530+	36%		35¢	36¢	$2.78	$14.8K
1540+	15%	▼ 1	14¢	16¢	$6.25	$10.1K

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: Text Arena Debut, Fable Model

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Sam Altman’s three AI safety scenarios range from global oversight to a worst-case outcome: Report@firstpost · 5 days agoAs the US considers a framework for overseeing superintelligence, Altman has reportedly outlined three scenarios, ranging from international AI oversight to a future in which a developer uses self-improving AI to monopolise computing power…
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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Search. Prices read from the venues 4 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

About this market

VenuePolymarket

Settles onarena.ai

Trading closesJun 30, 2027 11:59 PM ET

Traded$67.1K

Today$3.5K

This week$15.9K

At stake$12.3K

Followed here sinceOct 19, 2026

The rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next Anthropic Claude Fable model (5.2+) added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) has at least the specified score at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which it first appears on the leaderboard. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Fable" and be designated as version 5.2 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 5.2 or higher named in the same manner as Claude Fable 5 or Claude Fable 5.1 would qualify, including a new who

The full rules are on the market's page at Polymarket.

Reading the odds

A prediction market trades contracts that pay $1 if something happens. Its price is the market's chance: a contract at 62¢ means traders give it 62%. Each number here is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.

For a question with many answers (who wins, which range a number lands in), the chances are scaled to add up to 100%. A price ladder ("above 4.25%, above 4.50% ...") gives a whole distribution: its median is where traders see an even chance either way.

Kalshi is a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; its money is counted in contracts, shown here as dollars at their price. Polymarket counts dollars. ForecastEx is Interactive Brokers' exchange, regulated by the CFTC; its contracts too are shown as dollars at their price. Crypto.com lists its markets on Crypto.com | Derivatives North America, a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; it reports the dollars traded. Where more than one asks the same question, each is shown, never averaged.

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Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Search, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Search index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Search Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions