Anthropic announces bankruptcy by...?

Polymarket Tech › AI Closes Dec 31, 2029 · $29.6K today · $2.6M traded · $1M at stake · prices read 9 min ago

The odds

19%December 31, 2029

December 31, 202710%
December 31, 202817%▼ 1
December 31, 202919%▼ 5

How the odds have moved

December 31, 2027: 10% on Oct 20, 10% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Polymarket. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Every outcome

Outcome	Chance	Day	Bid	Ask	Pays	Traded
December 31, 2027	10%		9¢	10¢	$10.00	$2M
December 31, 2028	17%	▼ 1	16¢	17¢	$5.88	$324K
December 31, 2029	19%	▼ 5	18¢	19¢	$5.26	$338K

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: Anthropic, Claude

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Anthropic’s Claude AI model accessed Georgia voter data in USthe Guardian · 19 h agoAnthropic sued for allegedly using 274 Elvis songs to train AI models Anthropic’s Claude model accessed voter data in the US state of Georgia, the AI company has confirmed, in the latest example of unauthorised behaviour by the technology…
Claude AI accessed publicly available Georgia voter data, Anthropic confirmsFox Business · 30 h agoAnthropic's Claude AI model accessed publicly available voter data through Georgia's data hub, state officials and the company confirmed to FOX Business on Sunday. The Georgia Secretary of State's office stressed that the bot did not…
Anthropic says its AI model Claude accessed public voter data with promptingCBS News · 8 h agoCBS News Texas is a local news organization that is part of CBS News and Stations. Also referred to as KTVT and channel 11, CBS News Texas offers local breaking news, weather coverage and investigative reporting. Anthropic says its AI…
Court rejects DOJ bid to block some California votes; Anthropic admits Claude accessed voter dataCBS News · 6 h agoAnthropic admitted that its Claude chatbot accessed voter statistics in Georgia without being instructed to do so. Also on Monday, an appeals court ruled against the Trump administration's bid to block certain votes in California. CBS News…
Anthropic’s Claude AI Hacks into Georgia Voter DataBreitbart · 12 h agoAxios reports that Anthropic says Claude reached publicly available data that’s normally accessible only after a fee is paid, pulling aggregate vote counts for an internal Anthropic statistics project. The AI found a loophole in an old…
Anthropic’s Claude AI Model Accessed US Voter Data@securitymag · 13 h ago“Claude did not access the state’s voter registration system, change any voting records, or pull any individual voter records,” Anthropic states. The AI instead accessed aggregate vote counts through a loophole in an older version of the…
Anthropic Relies On Claude To Build Claude. That’s An Advantage And A Risk.Forbes · 13 h agoMore than 90 percent of Anthropic’s code was written by its own AI tool Claude in September, the company disclosed in its S-1 filing on Monday. The AI giant is increasingly using its own AI models to research, design and develop subsequent…
Anthropic debuts Claude Duet personal AI agent. Here's what to know.CBS News · 4 days agoOctober 23, 2026 / 10:52 AM EDT / CBS News Anthropic has joined the race to develop AI agents that work autonomously on behalf of humans with Claude Duet, a new app it previewed this week. The agent competes with Meta's Muse and OpenAI's…
Anthropic bans scientists after detecting covert bioweapon research on ClaudeUNILAD Tech · 18 h agoThey attempted to create a new version of a dangerous virus Anthropic has just revealed a number of case studies where they detected concerning uses of Claude, and one involved a group of international scientists that were seemingly using…
Claude Duet is here: Anthropic's 24/7 AI agent, testedYahoo Finance · 19 h agoAnthropic just launched Claude Duet, a 24/7 personal agent that works on its own computer in the cloud and comes to you with what needs your attention. Host Ejaaz Ahamadeen tests it for 48 hours, compares it to Meta Muse, OpenAI Dots and…
Tech stocks rise as Anthropic advances towards IPObbc.com · 14 h agoAI developer Anthropic has publicly filed a registration statement in its latest step towards a stock market offering, which experts believe could be at least part of why tech stocks are surging as US markets open this week. Watch adaptive…
The Anthropic IPO Is Also a Doomsday PrimerWIRED · 14 h ago“Sufficiently advanced AI systems could, if not developed, deployed, and operated with appropriate safeguards, oversight and security measures, pose catastrophic or existential risks to humanity,” the prospectus reads, citing concerns both…

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Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?

$2.26Thigh with an even chance

Traders see an even chance of trading as high as $2.26T.

Reaches $1.5T96%
Reaches $1.75T82%

Falls to $800B4%
Falls to $700B4%

Already reached: ↑$1.25T, ↑$1.1T, ↑$1.0T

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Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by...?

Nov 18, 2026even chance by

October 21<1%▼ 12
October 22<1%▼ 14
October 24<1%▼ 1

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Next Fable Model (5.2+) released on...?

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No release by October 3167%▼ 3
October 2716%▼ 1
October 295%▲ 1

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October 285%▼ 1
October 302%▲ 1
October 201%▼ 12
October 311%▲ 1
October 19<1%▼ 2
October 21<1%▼ 5
October 22<1%▼ 14
October 23<1%▼ 4
October 24<1%
October 25<1%▼ 1
October 26<1%▼ 4

Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Search. Prices read from the venues 4 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

About this market

VenuePolymarket

Trading closesDec 31, 2029 11:59 PM ET

Traded$2.6M

Today$29.6K

This week$292K

At stake$1M

In the news542 headlines today, 2,000 this week

Followed here sinceOct 19, 2026

The rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic announces that it will file for bankruptcy or has filed for bankruptcy of any variety by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. An announcement will suffice for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of if or when the actual filing occurs. The announcement must be made through any of their official or verified channels, as a recorded or written statement by their CEO, legal representation, or other individual or team which officially represents Anthropic. A definitive consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

The full rules are on the market's page at Polymarket.

Reading the odds

A prediction market trades contracts that pay $1 if something happens. Its price is the market's chance: a contract at 62¢ means traders give it 62%. Each number here is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.

For a question with many answers (who wins, which range a number lands in), the chances are scaled to add up to 100%. A price ladder ("above 4.25%, above 4.50% ...") gives a whole distribution: its median is where traders see an even chance either way.

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Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Search, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Search index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Search Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions