Who will attend a round of US-Iran peace talks by December 31?

Polymarket World › Middle East Closes Dec 31 · $71.1K today · $1.6M traded · $128K at stake · prices read 7 min ago

The odds

38%Jared Kushner
  • Jared Kushner38%▲ 6
  • Steve Witkoff37%▲ 3
  • Abbas Araghchi35%▲ 4
  • Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani28%▲ 5
  • Majid Takht-Ravanchi26%▲ 5
  • Kazem Gharibabadi23%▼ 1
  • Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf23%▲ 1
  • Badr bin Hamad Al Busaidi20%▲ 6
  • Rafael Grossi19%▲ 4
  • Nick Stewart18%▼ 7
  • J.D. Vance17%
  • Masoud Pezeshkian13%▼ 1
11 more
  • Ishaq Dar13%▼ 1
  • Marco Rubio9%
  • Donald Trump7%
  • Pete Hegseth6%
  • Ahmad Vahidi4%
  • Esmail Qaani3%
  • Elon Musk3%
  • Mojtaba Khamenei2%
  • Newt Gingrich2%
  • Mohammed bin Salman2%
  • Palmer Luckey2%

How the odds have moved

Not enough history yet.

Each outcome's chance over time on Polymarket. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Every outcome

Outcome Chance Day Bid Ask Pays Traded
✓ Jared Kushner >99% ▲ 60 100¢ 100¢ $215K
✓ Steve Witkoff >99% ▲ 63 100¢ 100¢ $69K
✓ Abbas Araghchi >99% ▲ 66 100¢ 100¢ $45.6K
✓ Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani >99% ▲ 15 98¢ 100¢ $115K
Jared Kushner 38% ▲ 6 37¢ 39¢ $2.56 $15.8K
Steve Witkoff 37% ▲ 3 35¢ 39¢ $2.56 $59.6K
Abbas Araghchi 35% ▲ 4 34¢ 36¢ $2.78 $19.4K
Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani 28% ▲ 5 27¢ 30¢ $3.33 $99.4K
Majid Takht-Ravanchi 26% ▲ 5 25¢ 26¢ $3.85 $41K
Kazem Gharibabadi 23% ▼ 1 22¢ 24¢ $4.17 $42.6K
Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf 23% ▲ 1 21¢ 24¢ $4.17 $135K
Badr bin Hamad Al Busaidi 20% ▲ 6 19¢ 21¢ $4.76 $75.1K
Rafael Grossi 19% ▲ 4 16¢ 21¢ $4.76 $70.9K
Nick Stewart 18% ▼ 7 17¢ 19¢ $5.26 $47.1K
J.D. Vance 17% 16¢ 17¢ $5.88 $88.4K
Masoud Pezeshkian 13% ▼ 1 12¢ 14¢ $7.14 $80.8K
Ishaq Dar 13% ▼ 1 10¢ 15¢ $6.67 $76.8K
Marco Rubio 9% 8¢ 9¢ $11.11 $57.3K
Donald Trump 7% 7¢ 7¢ $13.51 $79.3K
Pete Hegseth 6% 5¢ 6¢ $16.67 $25.1K
Ahmad Vahidi 4% 4¢ 4¢ $22.73 $42.9K
Esmail Qaani 3% 3¢ 3¢ $29.41 $19.8K
Elon Musk 3% 2¢ 5¢ $22.22 $6.3K
Mojtaba Khamenei 2% 2¢ 3¢ $33.33 $31.9K
Newt Gingrich 2% 0¢ 4¢ $23.26 $3.7K
Mohammed bin Salman 2% 1¢ 4¢ $27.78 $38.3K
Palmer Luckey 2% 0¢ 3¢ $30.30 $3.2K

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: Iran, US-Iran, Jared Kushner

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Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?

50%Gadi Eizenkot
  • Gadi Eizenkot50%▲ 4
  • Benjamin Netanyahu28%▼ 1
  • Naftali Bennett13%
16 more
  • Avigdor Lieberman4%▲ 1
  • Itamar Ben Gvir<1%
  • Yossi Cohen<1%
  • Israel Katz<1%
  • Amir Ohana<1%
  • Ofer Winter<1%
  • Yair Lapid<1%
  • Benny Gantz<1%
  • Yair Golan<1%
  • Gideon Sa’ar<1%
  • Yariv Levin<1%
  • Moshe Feiglin<1%
  • Ayelet Shaked<1%
  • Yoaz Hendel<1%
  • Nir Barkat<1%
  • Gilad Erdan<1%

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