Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?
6%chance▼ 1
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Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?
The odds
<1%chance
How the odds have moved
Yes: 1% on Oct 20, <1% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Polymarket. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Traded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | <1% | 0¢ | 0¢ | $3.5M |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Iran, Strait of Hormuz
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Iran says oil tanker catches fire after hitting naval mine east of Strait of HormuzOctober 27, 2026 at 1:51 pm Commercial vessels and oil tankers sit anchored in the waters off Bandar Abbas in southern Iran’s Hormozgan Province on September 9, 2026. [Fatemeh Bahrami – Anadolu Agency] An oil tanker caught fire after… -
No violating vessel safe in Strait of HormuzTEHRAN, Oct. 27 (MNA) – Iran's armed forces chief said the Strait of Hormuz is completely closed and no violating vessel will be safe, with IRGC and Army forces exercising full control over the Persian Gulf and Sea of Oman. Iran's Chief of… -
International Maritime Organization Chief: Some 400 Ships Remain Stranded in Strait of Hormuz[Economy] : The head of the International Maritime Organization(IMO) says there are still some 400 ships inside the Strait of Hormuz, carrying around five-thousand seafarers. IMO Secretary-General Arsenio Dominguez disclosed the figures… - Qatar urges Iran to reopen Strait of Hormuz amid US mediation effortsIran needs to show good intentions for mediation efforts to succeed, mediator Qatar said on Tuesday, after a delegation from the Gulf Arab country visited Tehran earlier this week in an effort to de-escalate regional tensions in…
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From Israeli missiles to the Strait of Hormuz: 5 reasons why Netanyahu’s election fate matters to India | ExplainedIsrael’s parliamentary election on October 27 is being watched closely in New Delhi, where the outcome has implications for defence supplies, trade negotiations, technology cooperation and India’s diplomatic engagement across West Asia… -
IRGC Declares Strait of Hormuz Closed as Tanker Transits Drop to 4A CENTCOM spokesperson told Al Jazeera on October 22 that US forces had cleared shipping lanes of mines, that Iran’s mine claims were incorrect, and that 95 percent of vessels were “getting through.” The spokesperson described the IRGC… -
US CENTCOM Commander Visits Strait of Hormuz as Oil Exports Top 1.5 Billion Barrels Since SummerThe commander of U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) visited the Strait of Hormuz on Oct. 25, as U.S. forces reach the milestone of assisting Gulf partners in exporting more than 1.5 billion barrels of crude oil since summer. Adm. Brad Cooper… -
CENTCOM chief visits Strait of Hormuz amid ‘milestone’ of crude oil exportsAdm. Brad Cooper, commander of U.S. Central Command, visited the Strait of Hormuz on Oct. 25, the U.S. military said on Sunday. The visit came as American forces “reach the milestone of assisting Gulf partners in exporting more than 1.5… -
US forces support transit of 3,000 ships through Strait of Hormuz — CENTCOMAccording to the command, US forces reached the milestone of assisting Gulf partners in exporting more than 1.5 billion barrels of crude oil through the Strait of Hormuz since summer - Russian Politics & Diplomacy Russian Politics &… -
CENTCOM chief declares: Strait of Hormuz is free from Iranian minesThe commander of US Central Command (CENTCOM), Adm. Brad Cooper, visited the Strait of Hormuz on Sunday, as US forces reach the milestone of assisting Gulf partners in exporting more than 1.5 billion barrels of crude oil since summer… -
Iran talks Middle East security, urges region to get US influence out | Live Updates from Fox News DigitalIran is working regional stability talks with U.S. allies Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Pakistan, urging the region to remove foreign involvement, despite President Donald Trump's pressure to end Iran's nuclear aspirations and threats on the… -
Maritime Crisis Deepens In Strait Of Hormuz As Nearly 500 Ships Stranded, Another Oil Tanker Attacked Near OmanFahad Shabbir (@FahadShabbir) Published October 26, 2026 | 12:33 AM Movement of 492 vessels near Fujairah, Dubai and Oman has been affected as an international maritime security body warns of a serious risk of further attacks in the Strait…
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