Reserve Bank of New Zealand decision in October?

Polymarket Economy › Central banks Closes Oct 28 · $843 today · $97.8K traded · $12.1K at stake · prices read 19 min ago

The odds

71%25 bps increase

25 bps increase71%▲ 6
No change27%▼ 2
50+ bps increase1%
25 bps decrease<1%
50+ bps decrease<1%

How the odds have moved

Not enough history yet.

Each outcome's chance over time on Polymarket. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Every outcome

Outcome	Chance	Day	Bid	Ask	Pays	Traded
25 bps increase	71%	▲ 6	71¢	74¢	$1.35	$37.4K
No change	27%	▼ 2	27¢	28¢	$3.57	$33.6K
50+ bps increase	1%		0¢	2¢	$52.63	$10K
25 bps decrease	<1%		0¢	1¢		$8.7K
50+ bps decrease	<1%			1¢		$8.1K

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The same question on Kalshi

Reserve Bank of New Zealand rate decision in October (Oct 27, 2026 meeting)HoldKalshi 31%Polymarket 27%4 pts apart

Reserve Bank of New Zealand rate decision in October (Oct 27, 2026 meeting)

68%Hike 1-25bps

Hike 1-25bps68%▲ 4
Maintain current rate31%▼ 3
Cut more than 25bps<1%
Cut 1-25bps<1%

1 more

Hike more than 25bps<1%

Shown side by side, never averaged: each venue's rules decide its own market.

The news: Reserve Bank of New Zealand

Search ›

No recent headlines name this market's subject.

Related markets

All central banks ›

Economy › Central banks

Reserve Bank of New Zealand decision in December?

46%25 bps increase

25 bps increase46%▼ 9
No change42%▲ 1
50+ bps increase4%▲ 1

2 more

50+ bps decrease2%
25 bps decrease1%

Economy › Central banks

Bank of Canada Decision in October?

76%25 bps increase

25 bps increase76%▲ 61
No Change24%▼ 60
50+ bps increase<1%

2 more

25 bps decrease<1%
50+ bps decrease<1%

Economy › Central banks

Bank of Russia decision in October?

87%No Change

No Change87%▼ 5
Decrease11%▲ 2
Increase<1%

Economy › Central banks

Bank of England decision in November?

95%25 bps increase

25 bps increase95%▲ 2
No change4%▼ 3
25 bps decrease<1%

2 more

50+ bps increase<1%
50+ bps decrease<1%

Economy › Central banks

ECB Interest Rates: October 2026

96%No change

No change96%
25 bps increase4%
50+ bps decrease<1%

2 more

25 bps decrease<1%
50+ bps increase<1%

Economy › Central banks

Bank of Israel Decision in October?

96%No Change

No Change96%▲ 3
Decrease4%▼ 3
Increase<1%

Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Search. Prices read from the venues 3 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

About this market

VenuePolymarket

Trading closesOct 28, 2026 7:59 PM ET

Traded$97.8K

Today$843

This week$97.8K

At stake$12.1K

Followed here sinceOct 19, 2026

The rules

This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the official cash rate (OCR) resulting from the October 2026 meeting of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting. The resolution source will be official information from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, including the statement or release from its October 2026 meeting, scheduled for October 28, 2026, as listed on the official RBNZ calendar (https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/news-and-events/events). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand resulting from its October 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued. If the specified rate is defi

The full rules are on the market's page at Polymarket.

Reading the odds

A prediction market trades contracts that pay $1 if something happens. Its price is the market's chance: a contract at 62¢ means traders give it 62%. Each number here is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.

For a question with many answers (who wins, which range a number lands in), the chances are scaled to add up to 100%. A price ladder ("above 4.25%, above 4.50% ...") gives a whole distribution: its median is where traders see an even chance either way.

Kalshi is a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; its money is counted in contracts, shown here as dollars at their price. Polymarket counts dollars. ForecastEx is Interactive Brokers' exchange, regulated by the CFTC; its contracts too are shown as dollars at their price. Crypto.com lists its markets on Crypto.com | Derivatives North America, a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; it reports the dollars traded. Where more than one asks the same question, each is shown, never averaged.

Prefer betting odds? Switch to American (+150) or decimal (2.50) odds at the top of the page.

Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Search, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Search index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Search Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use.