ECB Interest Rates in Oct 2026
96%0bps (Unchanged)
- 0bps (Unchanged)96%
- Hike <=25bps3%
- Cut <=25bps2%
- Cut >25bps2%
1 more
- Hike >25bps2%
Install
European Central Bank rate decision in October (Oct 29, 2026 meeting)
The odds
97%Maintain current rate
- Maintain current rate97%
- Hike 1-25bps2%▲ 1
- Cut 1-25bps1%▲ 1
- Hike more than 25bps1%
- Cut more than 25bps<1%
How the odds have moved
Maintain current rate: 95% on Oct 20, 97% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maintain current rate | 97% | 97¢ | 98¢ | $1.02 | 19.9K | |
| Hike 1-25bps | 2% | ▲ 1 | 2¢ | 3¢ | $33.33 | 24.1K |
| Cut 1-25bps | 1% | ▲ 1 | 3¢ | $33.33 | 15.4K | |
| Hike more than 25bps | 1% | 2¢ | $50.00 | 1.7K | ||
| Cut more than 25bps | <1% | 1¢ | $100.00 | 5.8K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The same question on Crypto.com
- European Central Bank rate decision in October (Oct 29, 2026 meeting)Cut 50+ bpKalshi <1%Crypto.com 2%2 pts apart
Shown side by side, never averaged: each venue's rules decide its own market.
The same question on ForecastEx
- European Central Bank rate decision in October (Oct 29, 2026 meeting)HoldKalshi 97%ForecastEx 77%20 pts apart
ECB Decision (Oct 29, 2026)
77%Hold
- Hold77%
- Hike 50+ bp8%
- Hike 25 bp7%
- Cut 25 bp7%
1 more
- Cut 50+ bp<1%
Shown side by side, never averaged: each venue's rules decide its own market.
The same question on Polymarket
- European Central Bank rate decision in October (Oct 29, 2026 meeting)Cut 25 bpKalshi 1%Polymarket <1%1 pts apart
ECB Interest Rates: October 2026
98%No change
- No change98%
- 25 bps increase2%
- 50+ bps decrease<1%
- 25 bps decrease<1%
1 more
- 50+ bps increase<1%
Shown side by side, never averaged: each venue's rules decide its own market.
The news: European Central Bank
Search ›-
European Central Bank: One more hike then extended plateau – CommerzbankCommerzbank economists expect the European Central Bank (ECB) to leave its deposit rate at 2.50% in October, then raise it to 2.75% in December in response to persistent Eurozone inflation. With rates already seen as slightly restrictive… - European Central Bank’s Piero Cipollone to Talk DigitalPiero Cipollone will discuss digital euro developments today. Here's why this matters for the future of digital currencies. Piero Cipollone will speak about the digital euro today. The ECB aims to explore the future of digital currencies…
-
Key Market Events for the Week of October 26–30, 2026Rio Times Markets · The Week Ahead —Fed decision The Federal Reserve is expected to hold its rate at 3.75–4.00 percent on Wednesday, so its guidance is the main event for global risk appetite. —Chile rate Chile’s central bank decides on… -
Ferrari Luce Costs $560,800 in the U.S., $55,657 Above Europe’s Pre-Tax PriceThe Ferrari Luce starts at $560,800 in the U.S. before options and sales tax, which is $55,657 above its European price once Italy's 22% VAT is taken out. The Ferrari Luce starts at $560,800 in the United States before options, Ferrari has… -
Crypto Banking Alert: Bank of Israel’s Sanctions WarningThe Bank of Israel’s warning does not exist in a vacuum. Global regulators have been systematically closing the perceived sanctions gap in crypto: Collectively, these measures form a backdrop where no serious crypto banking provider can… - France’s Borrowing Costs Overtake US as Protests, Gridlock Block Macron’s BudgetPublished 24 Oct 2026, 17:24 UTC Map: © OpenStreetMap contributors, ODbL · Cropped for layout French 10-year yield gap to Germany widens to record levels amid budget turmoil. Investors fret France cannot pass the budget, raising debt-risk…
-
5 world market themes for the week aheadAn important week is upcoming with central banks like the Federal Reserve and European Central Bank making policy decisions. Major companies, including Alphabet, Amazon, and Microsoft, are set to report their earnings. Political events are… -
David McWilliams: France is likely heading towards ECB support and a Marine Le Pen presidencyProtesting is in the French DNA. These people gave the world the French Revolution- not the French Negotiation or the French Re-evaluation – which was the most consequential political upheaval of the past 300 years and it started in Paris… -
Euro sinks on French debt worries, yen gains for week on AI rout, Money NewsThe euro fell on Friday (Oct 23) and was on track for a weekly loss against both the US dollar and the yen as a selloff in French government bonds pushed the country's debt risk premium to its highest level since the euro zone sovereign… - Digital Euro Aims to Bring Cash into Digital Age, Says ECBThe ECB highlights how the digital euro enhances cash benefits in the digital age. Here's why it matters for privacy and security. ECB promotes digital euro as a secure public money solution. New digital euro aims to protect user privacy…
-
As Donald Trump weighs up options, could inflation be about to get worse?Reports that the US is planning further strikes on Iran – potentially after the US midterm elections next month – have triggered another surge in oil prices. Brent crude, the international benchmark for oil, rose to a five-month high of… - European Central Bank: Gradual tightening points to December hike – RabobankRabobank’s Bas van Geffen expects the European Central Bank (ECB) to keep policy unchanged at its October meeting, with the deposit rate at 2.50%, and to deliver a final hike in December. He highlights persistent upside inflation risks but…
Related markets
All central banks ›European Central Bank rate decision in December (Dec 17, 2026 meeting)
75%Hike 1-25bps
- Hike 1-25bps75%▼ 1
- Maintain current rate22%▼ 1
- Hike more than 25bps2%
2 more
- Cut more than 25bps1%
- Cut 1-25bps1%
South Africa rate decision in November (Nov 19, 2026 meeting)
38%Maintain current rate
- Maintain current rate38%▼ 5
- Hike 1-25bps35%▲ 34
- Cut 1-25bps21%▲ 24
2 more
- Hike more than 25bps6%▼ 1
- Cut more than 25bps2%▼ 3
Bank of Brazil decision in November?
82%25 bps decrease
- 25 bps decrease82%▼ 1
- No Change17%▲ 1
- 50+ bps increase<1%
2 more
- 50+ bps decrease<1%▼ 2
- 25 bps increase<1%
Bank of Canada decision in Oct 2026?
80%Hike 25bps
- Hike 25bps80%▼ 1
- Maintains rate18%▼ 1
- Hike >25bps1%▲ 1
2 more
- Cut >25bps1%
- Cut 25bps1%
Bank of Israel rate decision in November (Nov 23, 2026 meeting)
64%Maintain current rate
- Maintain current rate64%▲ 9
- Cut 1-25bps38%▼ 1
- Hike 1-25bps1%
2 more
- Cut more than 25bps1%▼ 1
- Hike more than 25bps<1%▼ 1
Reserve Bank of Australia Decision in December
66%No change
- No change66%▲ 18
- 25 bps increase26%▼ 5
- 50+ bps increase4%
2 more
- 25 bps decrease3%
- 50+ bps decrease1%
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Search. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Search, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Search index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Search Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions