Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
55%Anthropic
- Anthropic55%▲ 3
- Google34%▼ 2
- OpenAI6%
12 more
- Meta2%
- xAI1%
- Alibaba1%
- DeepSeek<1%
- Moonshot<1%
- Z.ai<1%
- Mistral<1%
- Microsoft<1%
- ByteDance<1%
- Meituan<1%
- Amazon<1%
- Baidu<1%
Install
Highest Kimi score on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026?
The odds
48.16%median
40%70%
Median 48.16%Middle half 46.58% – 49.75%
How the odds have moved
Median: 49.26% on Oct 20, 48.16% now.
The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Polymarket.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Traded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 45%+ | >99% | ▲ 9 | 100¢ | 100¢ | $48.7K | |
| 50%+ | 21% | ▼ 17 | 17¢ | 25¢ | $4.00 | $44.7K |
| 55%+ | 11% | ▲ 1 | 10¢ | 12¢ | $8.33 | $17.6K |
| 60%+ | 8% | ▼ 3 | 6¢ | 9¢ | $11.11 | $14.3K |
| 65%+ | 6% | 5¢ | 7¢ | $14.08 | $5.8K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Humanity’s Last Exam, Highest Kimi
Search ›- New Chinese Kimi K3.1 Pro AI Model Outperforms GPT-6 Astra With Near Claude Opus 5.5 PerformanceMonhot AI's Kimi K3.1 Pro model scores higher than its predecessor and than GPT-6 Astra in AI benchmarks, while extra reasoning and tool calls can offset its lower token rates. Independent evaluator Artificial Analysis measured a jump from…
- Anthropic’s Jack Clark tells policymakers the singularity has begunJack Clark says the singularity has begun. Recent AI gains in math and science give economic policymakers concrete reasons to take his claim seriously. Anthropic co-founder Jack Clark told economists and policymakers at the IMF and World…
-
Anthropic co-founder says the singularity is underwayPLUS: Try ChatGPT’s new voices with GPT-Live-1.1 Good morning, AI enthusiasts, and welcome to our 5,481 new readers. Anthropic has spent 2026 warning that AI is moving faster than anyone is ready for. Now one of its co-founders says the… -
MiniMax Releases M3.1 Flash AI Model With Substantial Cost Cuts and Better PerformanceMiniMax's M3.1 Flash AI model improves on M3 in reasoning tests. Across broader AI capability tests, M3.1 Flash's weighted average cost is $0.22 per task, versus M3's $0.51. MiniMax has released M3.1 Flash, an AI model built for coding and… -
DeepSeek updates V4.1 Flash without raising API pricesThe updated model is available in DeepSeek’s web and mobile applications. API customers can access it through the existing deepseek-flash model ID at unchanged prices. DeepSeek’s model card on Hugging Face calls the release a “minor… -
A message from John Furrier, co-founder of SiliconANGLE:UPDATED 18:34 EDT / OCTOBER 18 2026 Chinese artificial intelligence startup Hangzhou DeepSeek Artificial Intelligence Basic Technology Research Co. Ltd. has released an updated version of its V4.1-Flash model that it says completes tasks… -
DeepSeek Unveils Leaner V4.1-Flash UpdateChinese artificial intelligence (AI) startup DeepSeek released an updated version of its primary AI model over the weekend, claiming the iteration delivers faster task completion and leaner performance. The move escalates competition… - DeepSeek V4.1-Flash-1017: HLE Score Hits 42.6 [2026]Add Shattered once in the Google app and our stories show up in your news suggestions. That detail reframes the October 17 release. Rather than reading it as a standalone product update, it looks more like DeepSeek validating an…
-
Is OpenAI Preparing GPT-6.1 Astra? Inside the Rumors, Token Pricing, and Safety DelaysThe AI industry moves at a pace where even a quiet pause from Sam Altman’s team generates deafening noise. Following the high-profile rollout of GPT-6 Astra in early September 2026 and the subsequent debut of GPT-6.1 Sol at DevDay, a… -
DeepSeek Just Dropped a Faster, Cheaper AI Model: What V4.1-Flash-1017 OffersDeepSeek released an updated version of its AI model on Saturday. The Chinese company says the new version is faster and leaner. — Coin Bureau (@coinbureau) October 18, 2026 The model is called DeepSeek-V4.1-Flash-1017. It is live on the… - Anthropic Launches Claude Sonnet 5.5 With 30% Lower Costs Per TaskThe new model costs $2 per million input tokens and $10 per million output tokens, while Anthropic says it requires fewer tokens to complete the same tasks. Anthropic has launched Claude Sonnet 5.5, the second model in its Claude 5.5…
- A leading religious voice proposes a new test for AI: Humanity’s First ExamHumanity’s Last Exam provides a challenging deductive reasoning test for AI models, with 2,500 questions ranging from math and physics to chemistry, humanities and more. Nearly two years after its release, a leading religious voice on AI…
Related markets
All ai ›Which company has the best AI model end of October?
90%Google
- Google90%▲ 4
- Anthropic9%▲ 1
- Meta<1%
18 more
- OpenAI<1%
- Alibaba<1%
- Moonshot<1%
- Baidu<1%
- Z.ai<1%
- Xiaomi<1%
- SpaceXAI<1%
- DeepSeek<1%
- Amazon<1%
- ByteDance<1%
- Nvidia<1%
- Thinky<1%
- MiniMax<1%
- Mistral<1%
- Meituan<1%
- Tencent<1%
- StepFun<1%
- Microsoft<1%
GPT Astra 6.1+ released by...?
Nov 27, 2026even chance by
- October 3116%
- November 1533%▼ 7
- November 3055%▼ 1
2 more
- December 1575%▼ 2
- December 3180%▼ 7
OpenAI announces another Millennium Prize solution by...?
Dec 7, 2027even chance by
- December 31, 202615%▲ 2
- December 31, 202753%▼ 1
Next Fable Model (5.2+) released on...?
66%No release by October 31
- No release by October 3166%▼ 5
- October 2922%▲ 19
- October 276%▼ 7
11 more
- October 286%
- October 301%
- October 201%▼ 12
- October 311%▲ 1
- October 19<1%▼ 2
- October 21<1%▼ 5
- October 22<1%▼ 14
- October 23<1%▼ 4
- October 24<1%
- October 25<1%▼ 1
- October 26<1%▼ 4
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
$2.26Thigh with an even chance
Traders see an even chance of trading as high as $2.26T.
- Reaches $1.5T96%
- Reaches $1.75T84%
- Falls to $800B4%
- Falls to $700B4%
Already reached: ↑$1.25T, ↑$1.1T, ↑$1.0T
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Search. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Search, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Search index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Search Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions