OpenAI announces another Millennium Prize solution by...?
48%December 31, 2027
- December 31, 202613%▼ 1
- December 31, 202748%▼ 8
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Highest Claude score on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026?
The odds
29%60%+
55%80%
How the odds have moved
60%+: 36% on Oct 20, 29% now.
The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Polymarket.
Why it moved
- Oct 23, 11 PM ET60%+: 33% → 28%
The biggest swings over the chart's period, each with the headlines about the market's subject published in the hours before it. News and odds moving together is not proof one caused the other.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Traded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ✓ 55%+ | >99% | ▲ 35 | 100¢ | 100¢ | $51.4K | |
| 60%+ | 29% | ▲ 3 | 28¢ | 30¢ | $3.33 | $67.9K |
| 65%+ | 14% | ▲ 1 | 14¢ | 15¢ | $6.67 | $42.9K |
| 70%+ | 7% | ▼ 2 | 4¢ | 9¢ | $11.11 | $9.8K |
| 75%+ | 6% | 6¢ | 6¢ | $15.87 | $2.5K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Anthropic, Claude, Humanity’s Last Exam
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Anthropic’s Claude AI model accessed Georgia voter data in USAnthropic sued for allegedly using 274 Elvis songs to train AI models Anthropic’s Claude model accessed voter data in the US state of Georgia, the AI company has confirmed, in the latest example of unauthorised behaviour by the technology… -
Claude AI accessed publicly available Georgia voter data, Anthropic confirmsAnthropic's Claude AI model accessed publicly available voter data through Georgia's data hub, state officials and the company confirmed to FOX Business on Sunday. The Georgia Secretary of State's office stressed that the bot did not… -
Anthropic debuts Claude Duet personal AI agent. Here's what to know.October 23, 2026 / 10:52 AM EDT / CBS News Anthropic has joined the race to develop AI agents that work autonomously on behalf of humans with Claude Duet, a new app it previewed this week. The agent competes with Meta's Muse and OpenAI's… - New Chinese Kimi K3.1 Pro AI Model Outperforms GPT-6 Astra With Near Claude Opus 5.5 PerformanceMonhot AI's Kimi K3.1 Pro model scores higher than its predecessor and than GPT-6 Astra in AI benchmarks, while extra reasoning and tool calls can offset its lower token rates. Independent evaluator Artificial Analysis measured a jump from…
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Anthropic bans scientists after detecting covert bioweapon research on ClaudeThey attempted to create a new version of a dangerous virus Anthropic has just revealed a number of case studies where they detected concerning uses of Claude, and one involved a group of international scientists that were seemingly using… -
Anthropic Merges Claude Chat and Cowork for Enterprise UsersAnthropic says it has unified Claude chat and Cowork for its enterprise customers. The new offering combines chat and Cowork on web, desktop and mobile, meaning users don’t have to choose between the two services before starting, Anthropic… -
Claude Duet is here: Anthropic's 24/7 AI agent, testedAnthropic just launched Claude Duet, a 24/7 personal agent that works on its own computer in the cloud and comes to you with what needs your attention. Host Ejaaz Ahamadeen tests it for 48 hours, compares it to Meta Muse, OpenAI Dots and… -
What is Claude Duet? Anthropic's newly announced 'proactive AI agent'Claude Duet is an AI agent that does not just answer questions, but proactively understands a user's work and carries out requested tasks in the background. On October 21, 2026, Anthropic announced a research preview of 'Claude Duet'. It… -
Anthropic's Claude Accessed Georgia Voter Data Without Human Approval: ReportAnthropic's Claude AI model accessed publicly available voter information from the US state of Georgia without human authorisation during a training run, Axios reported on Sunday. An Anthropic spokesperson told Axios that the incident did… -
I turned a Claude Code session into a local Anthropic-compatible APII wanted tools like LiteLLM and Hermes Agent to talk to my Claude Code session as if it were a normal... Tagged with ai, opensource, llm, claude. I wanted tools like LiteLLM and Hermes Agent to talk to my Claude Code session as if it were… -
Anthropic Sued for Training Claude on Elvis Presley SongsPer the filing, Anthropic used such songs as “Can’t Help Falling in Love” and “Run On” to train Claude. “Claude continues to infringe: when recently asked to recreate specific songs ‘for a modern ... Things you buy through our links may… -
Anthropic’s Claude AI accessed Georgia voter data without authorization- AxiosClaude did not access the state's voter registration system or alter or retrieve any voting records. Anthropic has implemented measures to prevent similar actions in the future, the Axios report said. The Axios report marks the latest…
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All ai ›Which company has the best AI model end of October?
88%Google
- Google88%▲ 3
- Anthropic9%▼ 4
- OpenAI1%
18 more
- Meta<1%
- Moonshot<1%
- Alibaba<1%
- Baidu<1%
- Z.ai<1%
- Xiaomi<1%
- SpaceXAI<1%
- DeepSeek<1%
- Amazon<1%
- ByteDance<1%
- Nvidia<1%
- Thinky<1%
- MiniMax<1%
- Mistral<1%
- Meituan<1%
- Tencent<1%
- StepFun<1%
- Microsoft<1%
Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
57%Anthropic
- Anthropic57%▲ 4
- Google32%▼ 1
- OpenAI6%
12 more
- xAI1%
- Meta1%
- Alibaba<1%
- Moonshot<1%
- DeepSeek<1%
- Z.ai<1%
- Mistral<1%
- Microsoft<1%
- ByteDance<1%
- Meituan<1%
- Amazon<1%
- Baidu<1%
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
$2.26Thigh with an even chance
Traders see an even chance of trading as high as $2.26T.
- Reaches $1.5T96%
- Reaches $1.75T82%
- Falls to $800B4%
- Falls to $700B4%
Already reached: ↑$1.25T, ↑$1.1T, ↑$1.0T
Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by...?
Nov 18, 2026even chance by
- October 21<1%▼ 12
- October 22<1%▼ 14
- October 24<1%▼ 1
2 more
- October 3132%▲ 1
- December 3194%▲ 1
Next Fable Model (5.2+) released on...?
67%No release by October 31
- No release by October 3167%▼ 3
- October 2716%▼ 1
- October 295%▲ 1
11 more
- October 285%▼ 1
- October 302%▲ 1
- October 201%▼ 12
- October 311%▲ 1
- October 19<1%▼ 2
- October 21<1%▼ 5
- October 22<1%▼ 14
- October 23<1%▼ 4
- October 24<1%
- October 25<1%▼ 1
- October 26<1%▼ 4
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Search. Prices read from the venues 3 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Search, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Search index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Search Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions