Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by...?

Polymarket Tech › AI Closes Dec 31 · $61.2K today · $66K traded · $166K at stake · prices read 19 min ago

The odds

Oct 27, 2026even chance by

October 2118%▼ 23
October 2231%▼ 28
October 2440%▼ 37
October 3173%▼ 10
December 3195%▼ 3

How the odds have moved

October 21: 21% on Oct 20, 18% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Polymarket. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Every outcome

Outcome	Chance	Day	Bid	Ask	Pays	Traded
October 8	<1%	▼ 1		0¢		$17.5K
October 9	<1%	▼ 2		0¢		$28.9K
October 10	<1%	▼ 1		0¢		$37.4K
October 12	<1%	▼ 4		0¢		$21.4K
October 14	<1%	▼ 28		0¢		$48.5K
October 15	<1%	▼ 13		0¢		$18.4K
October 16	<1%	▼ 3		0¢		$13.4K
October 17	<1%	▼ 1		0¢		$71.5K
October 18	<1%			0¢		$4.7K
October 21	18%	▼ 23	16¢	20¢	$5.00	$31.6K
October 22	31%	▼ 28	30¢	32¢	$3.13	$20.2K
October 24	40%	▼ 37	39¢	40¢	$2.50	$100K
October 31	73%	▼ 10	73¢	73¢	$1.36	$231K
December 31	95%	▼ 3	94¢	96¢	$1.05	$15.1K

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: Fable Model

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No recent headlines name this market's subject.

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Next Fable Model (5.2+) released on...?

26%No release by October 31

No release by October 3126%▲ 10
October 2217%▼ 4
October 2714%▲ 3

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October 2014%▼ 20
October 319%▲ 9
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October 244%
October 233%▼ 2
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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Search. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

About this market

VenuePolymarket

Trading closesDec 31, 2026 6:59 PM ET

Traded$66K

Today$61.2K

This week$66K

At stake$166K

Followed here sinceOct 19, 2026

The rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic's next Fable model (5.2+) is made available to the general public between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Fable" and be designated as version 5.2 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 5.2 or higher named in the same manner as Claude Fable 5 or Claude Fable 5.1 would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as Claude Fable 6, while models whose name does not include "Fable" or which retain a version designation below 5.2, su

The full rules are on the market's page at Polymarket.

Reading the odds

A prediction market trades contracts that pay $1 if something happens. Its price is the market's chance: a contract at 62¢ means traders give it 62%. Each number here is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.

For a question with many answers (who wins, which range a number lands in), the chances are scaled to add up to 100%. A price ladder ("above 4.25%, above 4.50% ...") gives a whole distribution: its median is where traders see an even chance either way.

Kalshi is a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; its money is counted in contracts, shown here as dollars at their price. Polymarket counts dollars. ForecastEx is Interactive Brokers' exchange, regulated by the CFTC; its contracts too are shown as dollars at their price. Crypto.com lists its markets on Crypto.com | Derivatives North America, a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; it reports the dollars traded. Where more than one asks the same question, each is shown, never averaged.

Prefer betting odds? Switch to American (+150) or decimal (2.50) odds at the top of the page.

Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Search, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Search index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Search Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use.