Next leader out of power before 2027?

Polymarket World Closes Dec 31 · $104K today · $1.3M traded · $62.6K at stake · prices read 4 min ago

The odds

48%None before 2027
  • None before 202748%▼ 8
  • Netanyahu - Israel PM29%▲ 1
  • Kim - Supreme Leader of North Korea8%▲ 7
  • Sánchez - Spanish PM5%▼ 1
  • Lecornu - France PM3%▼ 1
  • Macron - France President1%▼ 1
  • Abbas - President of Palestine1%
  • Lula da Silva - Brazil President1%
  • Trump - USA President1%
  • Zelenskyy - Ukraine President1%
  • Díaz-Canel - Cuba President<1%
  • Merz - German Chancellor<1%▼ 1
10 more
  • Rodríguez - Venezuela Acting President<1%
  • Xi - General Secretary of the CCP<1%
  • Erdoğan - Türkiye President<1%
  • Putin - Russia President<1%▼ 1
  • al-Sharaa - Syria President<1%
  • Milei - Argentina President<1%
  • Takaichi - Japan PM<1%
  • Albanese - Australia PM<1%
  • Newsom - California Governor<1%
  • Sheinbaum - Mexico President<1%

How the odds have moved

Not enough history yet.

Each outcome's chance over time on Polymarket. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Every outcome

Outcome Chance Day Bid Ask Pays Traded
None before 2027 48% ▼ 8 46¢ 49¢ $2.04 $202K
Netanyahu - Israel PM 29% ▲ 1 28¢ 30¢ $3.33 $255K
Kim - Supreme Leader of North Korea 8% ▲ 7 6¢ 9¢ $11.11 $53.8K
Sánchez - Spanish PM 5% ▼ 1 4¢ 5¢ $20.83 $56.6K
Lecornu - France PM 3% ▼ 1 3¢ 3¢ $29.41 $38.8K
Macron - France President 1% ▼ 1 1¢ 1¢ $71.43 $44K
Abbas - President of Palestine 1% 1¢ 1¢ $90.91 $36.7K
Lula da Silva - Brazil President 1% 1¢ 1¢ $49.2K
Trump - USA President 1% 1¢ 1¢ $44.5K
Zelenskyy - Ukraine President 1% 0¢ 1¢ $43.6K
Díaz-Canel - Cuba President <1% 0¢ 1¢ $38.5K
Merz - German Chancellor <1% ▼ 1 0¢ 1¢ $46K
Rodríguez - Venezuela Acting President <1% 0¢ 1¢ $36.4K
Xi - General Secretary of the CCP <1% 0¢ 0¢ $50K
Erdoğan - Türkiye President <1% 0¢ 0¢ $37.6K
Putin - Russia President <1% ▼ 1 0¢ 0¢ $38.2K
al-Sharaa - Syria President <1% 0¢ 0¢ $34.3K
Milei - Argentina President <1% 0¢ 0¢ $41.8K
Takaichi - Japan PM <1% 0¢ 0¢ $36.8K
Albanese - Australia PM <1% 0¢ $38.3K
Newsom - California Governor <1% 0¢ $37.8K
Sheinbaum - Mexico President <1% 0¢ $33.2K

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news

No recent headlines name this market's subject.

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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Search. Prices read from the venues 4 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Search, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Search index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Search Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use.