US-Iran ceasefire continues through...?
63%October 22
- October 2263%▼ 1
- October 2463%▼ 2
- October 2863%▼ 3
6 more
- October 3163%▼ 2
- November 863%▲ 2
- November 1563%▼ 2
- November 2263%▼ 3
- November 3063%▼ 3
- December 3163%▼ 4
Install
Which countries will recognize Israel by December 31?
The odds
9%Venezuela
- Venezuela9%
- Pakistan6%▲ 1
- Lebanon6%▼ 1
- Tunisia6%
- Indonesia5%
- Iraq4%
- Saudi Arabia4%
- Syria4%
- North Korea3%
- Cuba3%
- Iran3%
- Kuwait3%
4 more
- Qatar3%
- Malaysia3%
- Afghanistan3%
- Bangladesh1%
How the odds have moved
Venezuela: 8% on Oct 20, 9% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Polymarket. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Traded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Venezuela | 9% | 8¢ | 9¢ | $11.11 | $393K | |
| Pakistan | 6% | ▲ 1 | 5¢ | 7¢ | $14.08 | $27.9K |
| Lebanon | 6% | ▼ 1 | 5¢ | 7¢ | $14.29 | $125K |
| Tunisia | 6% | 5¢ | 6¢ | $16.67 | $24.1K | |
| Indonesia | 5% | 4¢ | 5¢ | $19.61 | $30.5K | |
| Iraq | 4% | 4¢ | 4¢ | $22.73 | $17.7K | |
| Saudi Arabia | 4% | 3¢ | 5¢ | $20.00 | $88.8K | |
| Syria | 4% | 3¢ | 4¢ | $25.00 | $22.7K | |
| North Korea | 3% | 3¢ | 3¢ | $29.41 | $24.5K | |
| Cuba | 3% | 3¢ | 3¢ | $29.41 | $16.1K | |
| Iran | 3% | 3¢ | 4¢ | $27.03 | $20.7K | |
| Kuwait | 3% | 3¢ | 3¢ | $30.30 | $31.7K | |
| Qatar | 3% | 3¢ | 3¢ | $37.04 | $51.6K | |
| Malaysia | 3% | 3¢ | 3¢ | $38.46 | $15.2K | |
| Afghanistan | 3% | 2¢ | 3¢ | $35.71 | $44.8K | |
| Bangladesh | 1% | 1¢ | 2¢ | $62.50 | $17.5K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Israel, Gaza, Netanyahu
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Anti-Israel agitators smash signs of Seinfeld, NetanyahuA group of people protested outside Jerry Seinfeld's Washington, D.C. show. They chanted, used vulgar language and violently smashed posters of the comedian and Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu. Anti-Israel agitators smash signs of Seinfeld… -
Israeli election to test Benjamin Netanyahu's ability to hold powerCBS News Bay Area Morning Edition Weekend 6am WBZ This Morning 8am CBS Colorado Mornings Weekend CBS News Los Angeles Weekend 6am CBS Miami News Sunday Morning CBS News New York Sunday 8am KDKA News This Morning Sunday 8am -
Israel votes: Netanyahu’s future on the line – Full Story podcastIsraeli citizens are about to vote in what’s being seen as elections that are almost existential when it comes to the future identity of the country. That’s because since the October 7 attack by Hamas in which about 1,200 Israelis were… -
The Stakes for Netanyahu in Tuesday’s Israeli ElectionPaul Gigot interviews ‘In the War Room’ Co-Author Elliot Kaufman The Stakes for Netanyahu in Tuesday’s Israeli Election Paul Gigot interviews ‘In the War Room’ Co-Author Elliot Kaufman -
Thousands rally against Netanyahu in Tel Aviv ahead of Israeli elections – videoThousands of people gathered in Tel Aviv on Saturday in a final protest against the Israeli prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, and his government ahead of what has been described as the most consequential election in the country's… -
This center-right former general could unseat Netanyahu as Prime Minister in IsraelA former Israeli general is the main center-right challenger hoping to unseat Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in Israeli elections this week. This center-right former general could unseat Netanyahu as Prime Minister in Israel A former… - Why a far-right cabinet minister in Israel has Netanyahu's earIsrael's most far-right cabinet minister helped dictate hardline policies toward Palestinians in recent years. Benjamin Netanyahu vows to give him a senior position if Netanyahu is reelected next week. Why a far-right cabinet minister in…
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Thousands of Israelis rally against Netanyahu gov’t days before electionOpposition figures join Tel Aviv protesters demanding an independent October 7 inquiry. Thousands of Israelis are protesting against the government and calling for an independent inquiry into the security failures that led to the October… -
Why Israel’s election is more than a referendum on Netanyahu | CNNIsraelis vote Tuesday in their first election since the October 7, 2023 attack. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu faces his former military chief, Gadi Eisenkot. CNN’s Oren Liebermann explains why neither likely has a clear path to… -
2 beaches in Gaza and Israel. Just 40 miles apart, but worlds awayIsraelis prepare for an early evening swim in the beach town of Jaffa. To the north are the high-rises of Tel Aviv, home to hotels, apartment buildings and tech companies. Frank Langfitt/NPR hide caption JAFFA, Israel, and GAZA CITY, Gaza… -
Former Israeli army chief Gadi Eisenkot emerges as Netanyahu’s leading election challengerFox News Digital speaks with three experts on Israel’s high-stakes election and the fight over Netanyahu’s political future. The election is set for Oct. 27, 2026. JERUSALEM — Israel’s high-stakes election on Oct. 27 pits the longest… -
Hamas says it agrees to new Gaza ceasefire proposal, but Israel makes counterofferMarch 29, 2025 / 9:20 PM EDT / CBS/AP The Hamas militant group said Saturday it has accepted a new Gaza ceasefire proposal from mediators Egypt and Qatar, but Israel said it has made a counter-proposal in "full coordination" with the third…
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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Search. Prices read from the venues 4 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Search, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Search index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Search Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions