US-Iran ceasefire continues through...?
65%October 22
- October 2265%▼ 4
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Erdoğan out by...?
The odds
31%December 31, 2027
- December 31, 20264%
- December 31, 202731%▲ 14
How the odds have moved
December 31, 2026: 4% on Oct 20, 4% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Polymarket. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Traded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31, 2026 | 4% | 3¢ | 4¢ | $26.32 | $65K | |
| December 31, 2027 | 31% | ▲ 14 | 12¢ | 49¢ | $2.04 | $122 |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Erdoğan
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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Search. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Search, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Search index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Search Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use.