US-Iran ceasefire continues through...?
66%October 22
- October 2266%
- October 2466%▲ 1
- October 2866%▲ 5
6 more
- October 3166%▲ 7
- November 866%▲ 2
- November 1566%▲ 2
- November 2266%▲ 2
- November 3066%▲ 1
- December 3166%▲ 2
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Netanyahu out by...?
The odds
42%December 31
- December 3142%▲ 1
How the odds have moved
December 31: 42% on Oct 20, 42% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Polymarket. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Traded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| March 31 | <1% | 0¢ | $104M | |||
| April 30 | <1% | 0¢ | $9.6M | |||
| May 31 | <1% | 0¢ | $821K | |||
| June 30 | <1% | 0¢ | $6.9M | |||
| July 31 | <1% | 0¢ | $332K | |||
| December 31 | 42% | ▲ 1 | 41¢ | 42¢ | $2.38 | $2.8M |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Israel, Gaza, Netanyahu
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Israeli election to test Benjamin Netanyahu's ability to hold powerCBS News Bay Area Morning Edition Weekend 6am WBZ This Morning 8am CBS Colorado Mornings Weekend CBS News Los Angeles Weekend 6am CBS Miami News Sunday Morning CBS News New York Sunday 8am KDKA News This Morning Sunday 8am -
Israel votes: Netanyahu’s future on the line – Full Story podcastIsraeli citizens are about to vote in what’s being seen as elections that are almost existential when it comes to the future identity of the country. That’s because since the October 7 attack by Hamas in which about 1,200 Israelis were… -
The Stakes for Netanyahu in Tuesday’s Israeli ElectionPaul Gigot interviews ‘In the War Room’ Co-Author Elliot Kaufman The Stakes for Netanyahu in Tuesday’s Israeli Election Paul Gigot interviews ‘In the War Room’ Co-Author Elliot Kaufman -
Thousands rally against Netanyahu in Tel Aviv ahead of Israeli elections – videoThousands of people gathered in Tel Aviv on Saturday in a final protest against the Israeli prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, and his government ahead of what has been described as the most consequential election in the country's… -
Why a far-right cabinet minister in Israel has Netanyahu's earIsrael's most far-right cabinet minister helped dictate hardline policies toward Palestinians in recent years. Benjamin Netanyahu vows to give him a senior position if Netanyahu is reelected next week. Why a far-right cabinet minister in… -
Thousands of Israelis rally against Netanyahu gov’t days before electionOpposition figures join Tel Aviv protesters demanding an independent October 7 inquiry. Thousands of Israelis are protesting against the government and calling for an independent inquiry into the security failures that led to the October… -
BBC Audio | From Our Own Correspondent | Israel elections: Netanyahu's big testKate Adie introduces stories from Israel, Albania, the US and Chile. Israel goes to the polls on Tuesday in a pivotal vote on the future direction of the country. Israel's longest-serving prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, is facing a… -
Why Israel’s election is more than a referendum on Netanyahu | CNNIsraelis vote Tuesday in their first election since the October 7, 2023 attack. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu faces his former military chief, Gadi Eisenkot. CNN’s Oren Liebermann explains why neither likely has a clear path to… -
Former Israeli army chief Gadi Eisenkot emerges as Netanyahu’s leading election challengerFox News Digital speaks with three experts on Israel’s high-stakes election and the fight over Netanyahu’s political future. The election is set for Oct. 27, 2026. JERUSALEM — Israel’s high-stakes election on Oct. 27 pits the longest… -
Hamas says it agrees to new Gaza ceasefire proposal, but Israel makes counterofferMarch 29, 2025 / 9:20 PM EDT / CBS/AP The Hamas militant group said Saturday it has accepted a new Gaza ceasefire proposal from mediators Egypt and Qatar, but Israel said it has made a counter-proposal in "full coordination" with the third… -
2 beaches in Gaza and Israel. Just 40 miles apart, but worlds awayIsraelis prepare for an early evening swim in the beach town of Jaffa. To the north are the high-rises of Tel Aviv, home to hotels, apartment buildings and tech companies. Frank Langfitt/NPR hide caption JAFFA, Israel, and GAZA CITY, Gaza… -
‘Gaza’s suffering has become campaign fodder’: Palestinians fear the worst from Israel electionHumanitarian catastrophe largely ignored as rivals Gadi Eisenkot and Benjamin Netanyahu vow to end Hamas rule As Israel prepares to go to the polls, Palestinians in Gaza are bracing for an outcome that could shape their future, knowing…
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Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...?
72%October 24
- October 2472%▲ 1
- October 2772%▲ 3
- October 3172%▲ 2
3 more
- November 1572%▲ 7
- November 3072%▲ 1
- December 3172%▼ 1
US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?
37%December 31
- March 3130%▲ 2
- October 3130%▲ 2
- November 3030%▲ 3
1 more
- December 3137%▲ 3
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
12%chance
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
20%chance▼ 1
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Search. Prices read from the venues 4 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Search, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Search index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Search Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions