María Corina Machado enters Venezuela by...?
>99%October 31
- October 31>99%▲ 89
- December 31>99%▲ 67
Install
Maduro Prison Time?
The odds
55%No prison time
- No prison time55%▲ 5
- 60+22%▲ 1
- <208%
- 40–605%
- 20–403%
How the odds have moved
No prison time: 56% on Oct 20, 55% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Polymarket. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Traded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No prison time | 55% | ▲ 5 | 54¢ | 55¢ | $1.82 | $549K |
| 60+ | 22% | ▲ 1 | 21¢ | 22¢ | $4.55 | $166K |
| <20 | 8% | 7¢ | 10¢ | $10.20 | $123K | |
| 40–60 | 5% | 3¢ | 7¢ | $15.15 | $30.3K | |
| 20–40 | 3% | 2¢ | 4¢ | $25.64 | $63.4K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Venezuela, Maduro, Maduro Prison Time
Search ›-
Machado says Venezuelans are "very grateful" to Trump for ousting Maduro, after he suggests she can't lead the countryUpdated on: January 6, 2026 / 10:49 PM EST / CBS News Venezuelan opposition leader María Corina Machado hailed President Trump for removing Nicolás Maduro from power and argued her coalition has a mandate to lead the country moving forward… -
In the Venezuelan stronghold of Doral, some voters discouraged by Trump's policies ahead of midterms: "I feel, in a way, betrayed."October 24, 2026 / 9:47 PM EDT / CBS News Latinos voted in record numbers for President Trump in 2024, but polling shows that voting bloc is up for grabs in the midterms. And one region that reflects that shift is Florida's Miami-Dade… -
Exclusive — Venezuela Opposition Negotiator Dinorah Figuera: Maduro’s Capture Opened ‘the Path to Hope’President Donald Trump’s bold decision to approve the mission to arrest former dictator Nicolás Maduro created the “path to hope” that Venezuelans are cautiously taking toward holding elections, Dinorah Figuera, the surgeon and former… -
She Fled Maduro’s Regime. Washington Brought Her Back to Negotiate With It.CARACAS—When Dinorah Figuera first sat down for talks on restoring democratic institutions here, she faced one of the most powerful figures in the autocratic regime that drove her into exile. “I am not afraid of you,” she said she told… -
US Uses Rare Torture Law in Maduro Case—Who. Former Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and his wife, Cilia Flores, are accused by US prosecutors. —What. A superseding indictment adds conspiracy to commit torture under federal law, alongside drug and weapons counts. —Dates. The… -
Venezuela-US TensionsWho runs Venezuela after Maduro, what Washington wants, the sanctions and oil deals, the Maduro case and the live odds. Venezuela and the US explained: who runs the country after Maduro's capture, sanctions and oil, the New York case, the… -
Venezuela Marchers Demand Election DateOpposition supporters marched across Venezuela on Thursday, 22 October 2026, demanding that the government set a date for a presidential election. The marches, which followed the latest round of US-backed talks, are part of our Venezuela… -
Venezuela Launches Zero-Hunger Plan Targeting 2030 GoalOctober 25, 2026 Hour: 5:18 am Venezuela’s Acting President Delcy Rodríguez has launched a national food security plan aimed at eliminating undernourishment by 2030, combining domestic production with an expanded distribution network and… -
US invokes rarely used torture law against ousted Venezuelan president MaduroNicolas Maduro has become one of only eight people charged in the United States under a 1994 federal law criminalising torture committed overseas, as prosecutors expand their case against the ousted Venezuelan president. Maduro, 63, and… -
Venezuela Oil Field Hits 115,000 BarrelsVenezuela is led by an acting president, Delcy Rodríguez, after US forces captured former president Nicolás Maduro in January 2026. Washington now works closely with her government, mainly on oil. NABEP is the private company, led by… -
Treasury Leaves Venezuela Off Curbs, 22 OctTreasury says Venezuela does not meet the proposed definition of a country of concern in its outbound investment rules. The agency says the Maduro regime named in the law no longer exists. On Thursday, 22 October, Treasury proposed… -
Venezuelans take to streets to demand a date for presidential electionsCaracas, Venezuela — Protesters took to the streets in cities around Venezuela on October 22 to demand the government set a date for presidential elections. The protest comes amid ongoing negotiations between the government of interim…
Related markets
All trump administration ›Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?
2%chance▼ 1
Trump out as President before 2027?
5%chance▲ 1
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
3%chance▼ 1
Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled?
98%chance▼ 1
Trump declassifies new UFO files by...?
>99%October 31
- October 31>99%▲ 47
- November 30>99%▲ 16
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Search. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Search, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Search index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Search Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions