How many UKMTO notices October 19–25?

Polymarket World › Middle East For Sun 11:59 PM ET · $1.2K today · $8.3K traded · $931 at stake · prices read 19 h ago

The odds

6.50median

523

Median 6.50Middle half 5.75 – 7.25

How the odds have moved

Median: 8.76 on Oct 20, 6.50 now.

The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Polymarket.

Every outcome

Outcome	Chance	Day	Bid	Ask	Traded
<8	>99%	▲ 18	100¢	100¢	$3.6K
8-11	<1%	▼ 16		0¢	$2.5K
12-15	<1%	▼ 2		0¢	$572
16-19	<1%	▼ 1		0¢	$533
20+	<1%			0¢	$1.1K

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: UKMTO

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Tanker hit by unknown projectile off Oman, UKMTO saysMiddle East Eye · 3 days agoThe United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) has reported that a tanker was hit by an unknown projectile seven nautical miles off Omani coast. The tanker, transiting outbound in the Strait of ... Tanker hit by unknown projectile…
Projectile strikes tanker west of Oman’s Bukha: UKMTOMehr News Agency · 6 days agoTEHRAN, Oct. 21 (MNA) â An â unknown projectile struck a tanker â 11 nautical miles â west of Omanâs Bukha on Wednesday. Projectile strikes tanker west of Oman’s Bukha: UKMTO TEHRAN, Oct. 21 (MNA) – An ⁠unknown projectile struck a…
Projectile strikes tanker west of Oman’s Bukha, UKMTO saysRoya News · 6 days agoAn unknown projectile struck a tanker 11 nautical miles west of Bukha, Oman, near the Strait of Hormuz, the United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) said. The incident caused a fire aboard the vessel, but the blaze was…
UKMTO reports tanker incident off Oman as Iran claims mine strike near HormuzSAFETY4SEA · 6 days agoUK Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) has reported an incident involving a tanker and military forces off Oman, while Iran claims a supertanker carrying more than 2 million barrels of crude oil struck a naval mine near the Strait of Hormuz…
Projectile strikes tanker west of Oman's Bukha overlooking Hormuz Strait, UKMTO saysMarketScreener · 6 days agoAn unknown projectile struck a tanker 11 nautical miles west of Oman's Bukha, which overlooks the Strait of Hormuz, the United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations said on Wednesday. UKMTO said a fire... -October 21, 2026 at 04:34 am EDT…
Tanker struck by unknown projectile near Oman’s Bukha, fire extinguished : UKMTOBusiness Upturn · 6 days agoThe reported fire has been extinguished, reducing the immediate danger to the tanker’s crew. However, it remains unclear whether the projectile caused structural damage, affected the vessel’s propulsion systems or created any risk of fuel…
Tanker involved in incident with military forces off Oman: UKMTO@thepeninsulaqatar · 6 days agoDoha, Qatar: The United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations Centre (UKMTO) said in an advisory on October 20, 2026, that it had received a report of an... World / Middle East Tanker involved in incident with military forces off Oman: UKMTO…
UKMTO says tanker involved in military action near DuqmQuantum Commodity Intelligence · 6 days agoQuantum Commodity Intelligence UKMTO says tanker involved in military action near Duqm Quantum Commodity Intelligence is a premium paid subscription service for professionals in the oil, biofuels, carbon, ammonia and hydrogen markets…
UKMTO Reports Incident Involving Tanker off OmanWANA · 6 days agoWANA (Oct 20) – The United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) agency has reported an incident involving an oil tanker approximately 121 nautical miles east of Duqm, Oman. According to the agency, the tanker encountered military…
UKMTO reports a maritime incident in east of Duqm, OmanMehr News Agency · 6 days agoMehr News Agency UKMTO reports a maritime incident in east of Duqm, Oman TEHRAN, Oct. 20 (MNA) – The United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operation (UKMTO) on Tuesday received a report of an incident involving a tanker and military forces…
Tug struck by two unidentified projectiles off UAE coast, UKMTO reportsBusiness Upturn · 9 days agoA southbound tug was struck by two unidentified projectiles northeast of Khor Fakkan in the United Arab Emirates on Sunday, October 18, the United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) reported. The incident damaged the vessel and left…
Oil tanker struck by unknown projectile in Strait of Hormuz: UKMTOUS Muslims · 20 days agoIncident occurred on Monday as tanker was transiting outbound; authorities investigating ISTANBUL (AA) - An oil tanker transiting outbound through the Strait of Hormuz was struck by an unknown projectile on Oct. 5, the UK Maritime Trade…

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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Search. Prices read from the venues 2 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

About this market

VenuePolymarket

Settles onukmto.org

MeasuredOct 25, 2026 11:59 PM ET

Trading closesOct 28, 2026 12:12 AM ET

Traded$8.3K

Today$1.2K

This week$5.3K

At stake$931

Followed here sinceOct 19, 2026

The rules

This market will resolve according to the total number of notices that UKMTO (United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations) publishes on its Recent Incidents page with a publication date from October 19, 2026, through October 25, 2026 (UTC), inclusive, as displayed on that page. All notice types will count, including warnings, advisories, suspicious activity notices, and attack reports, including time-late reports of incidents that occurred before October 19, 2026 (UTC). Each notice will be counted once. Updates to, corrections of, or reissues of a previously published notice will not count as separate notices, including any subsequent notice that updates or provides additional information on

The full rules are on the market's page at Polymarket.

Reading the odds

A prediction market trades contracts that pay $1 if something happens. Its price is the market's chance: a contract at 62¢ means traders give it 62%. Each number here is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.

For a question with many answers (who wins, which range a number lands in), the chances are scaled to add up to 100%. A price ladder ("above 4.25%, above 4.50% ...") gives a whole distribution: its median is where traders see an even chance either way.

Kalshi is a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; its money is counted in contracts, shown here as dollars at their price. Polymarket counts dollars. ForecastEx is Interactive Brokers' exchange, regulated by the CFTC; its contracts too are shown as dollars at their price. Crypto.com lists its markets on Crypto.com | Derivatives North America, a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; it reports the dollars traded. Where more than one asks the same question, each is shown, never averaged.

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Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Search, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Search index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Search Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions