No Hormuz Agreement; R Senate: 34% on Oct 20, 33% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Polymarket. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Every outcome
Outcome
Chance
Day
Bid
Ask
Pays
Traded
No Hormuz Agreement; R Senate
33%
▲ 2
31¢
35¢
$2.82
$35.3K
Hormuz Agreement; R Senate
<1%
▼ 2
0¢
$44.5K
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
Republicans Could Still Keep the Senate. Here’s HowNewsweek · 24 h agoOct 26, 2026 at 05:00 AM EDT Certain preelection forecasts have Democrats riding a blue wave to majorities in both the House and the Senate, but there are a few ways for the GOP to keep its grasp on the upper chamber for the remainder of…
GOP Mich. Senate hopeful Mike Rogers dodges whether he’s ‘MAGA Republican’New York Post · 36 h agoGOP Michigan Senate hopeful Mike Rogers on Sunday sidestepped whether he views himself as a “MAGA Republican.” “I get you guys on the national press, but this is a little bit disgusting to me,” Rogers said on NBC News’ “Meet the Press”…
Blanche defends DOJ lawsuit blocking Alaska Senate results if Republican losesNPR · 40 h agoPresident Donald Trump walks past Attorney General Todd Blanche after speaking at a roundtable event in the East Room of the White House, Wednesday, Oct. 21, 2026, in Washington. Alex Brandon/AP hide caption U.S. Attorney General Todd…
Trump administration faces record vacancies in Senate-confirmed postsThe Washington Post · 25 h agoBreaking news and analysis on politics, business, world, national news, entertainment and more. In-depth DC, Virginia, Maryland news coverage including traffic, weather, crime, education, restaurant reviews and more. As the GOP faces a…
9 US Senate races could determine control of the chamberFox News · 31 h agoThe Ben Shapiro Show’ host Ben Shapiro joins ‘One Nation’ to discuss nine U.S. Senate races that could determine control of the Senate, Michigan Democratic U.S. Senate nominee Abdul El-Sayed and the 2028 presidential election. 9 US Senate…
Iowa’s Senate rivals pitch independence from their partiesPOLITICO · 32 h agoAshley Hinson qualified her pledge to be Trump’s strongest ally, while Josh Turek praised the president’s border record. U.S. Senate candidate Josh Turek speaks during a debate with his Republican opponent, Ashley Hinson, on Oct. 7, 2026…
Voters’ rising ire at corruption plays central role in Texas Senate raceThe Washington Post · 25 h agoBreaking news and analysis on politics, business, world, national news, entertainment and more. In-depth DC, Virginia, Maryland news coverage including traffic, weather, crime, education, restaurant reviews and more. The race between Ken…
Democratic Senate Candidate: Trump Did ‘Better Job’ on Border Than BidenNewsweek · 32 h agoOct 25, 2026 at 05:52 PM EDT Josh Turek, the Democratic nominee for U.S. Senate in Iowa, said President Donald Trump has done a “better job” on the border than former President Joe Biden, while identifying several areas where he could work…
Paxton and Talarico on the campaign trail in tight Senate raceCBS News · 35 h agoCBS News Chicago Sunday 5:30pm CBS News Detroit Weekend 6:30pm CBS News Miami 6:30pm CBS News New York Weekend 6:30pm CBS Philadelphia at 6:30pm KDKA News Weekends 6:30pm CBS News Texas 5:30pm
Trump calls Michigan Senate candidate El-Sayed a ‘jihadist’Fox News · 36 h agoPresident Donald Trump speaks at a rally in Port Huron, Michigan, about Michigan Senate candidate Abdul El-Sayed, his family’s alleged support for terrorist organizations and Trump’s characterization of El-Sayed as a ‘jihadist.’ Trump…
Todd Blanche defends DOJ lawsuit over Senate election in AlaskaThe Washington Post · 35 h agoBreaking news and analysis on politics, business, world, national news, entertainment and more. In-depth DC, Virginia, Maryland news coverage including traffic, weather, crime, education, restaurant reviews and more. The attorney general…
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Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Search, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Search index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Search Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions
