USS George Washington departs CENTCOM by...?

Polymarket World › Middle East Closes Dec 31 · $505 today · $46.4K traded · $2.9K at stake · prices read 5 min ago

The odds

Dec 13, 2027even chance by

November 1511%▼ 3
November 3029%▲ 6
December 3181%▼ 5

How the odds have moved

November 15: 33% on Oct 20, 11% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Polymarket. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Why it moved

Oct 21, 8 PM ETNovember 15: 27% → 12%
- USS George Washington Conducts a Search and Rescue ExerciseDVIDS · 5 days ago

The biggest swings over the chart's period, each with the headlines about the market's subject published in the hours before it. News and odds moving together is not proof one caused the other.

Every outcome

Outcome	Chance	Day	Bid	Ask	Pays	Traded
November 15	11%	▼ 3	8¢	13¢	$7.69	$6.6K
November 30	29%	▲ 6	26¢	32¢	$3.13	$30.7K
December 31	81%	▼ 5	80¢	82¢	$1.22	$9.1K

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: USS George Washington, CENTCOM

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USS George Washington Crew Braces for Potential Conflict Escalation with IranCubaHeadlines · 2 days agoSaturday, October 24, 2026 by Charlotte Gomez American warships stationed in the Arabian Sea are bolstering their armament in anticipation of possible new orders from President Trump to launch attacks against Iran in the coming weeks…
USS George Washington Conducts a Search and Rescue ExerciseDVIDS · 5 days ago[Image 1 of 9] DVIDS USS George Washington Conducts a Search and Rescue Exercise [Image 1 of 9] U.S. 5TH FLEET AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY U.S. Naval Forces Central Command / U.S. 5th Fleet /search/unit/USNF-5F /rss/unit/164 November 2025">…
Iran targets US officials in Middle East, other regionsDaily Post Nigeria · 46 h agoIran is reportedly significantly increasing efforts to assassinate American diplomats and officials in the Middle East and other regions. The machinations have reached "advanced stages," according to Axios, which cited a United States…
Trump says record USS Lincoln deployment 'not nearly long enough'Good Morning America · 20 h agoPresident Donald Trump reacted to reports of poor conditions on the USS Abraham Lincoln on Friday, claiming that families of service members are "not" concerned and saying that the vessel hasn't been deployed for "nearly long enough." The…
Trump Says U.S. Could Attack Iran “Maybe Tomorrow” — After Linking Attacks to U.S. Midterm Elections@2paragraphs · 30 h agoPresident Trump said Saturday that the U.S. could strike Iran “maybe tomorrow.” Seventeen days earlier he wrote that the U.S. would not attack Iran before the midterms. The White House repeated the pledge Thursday. Spokesperson Anna Kelly…
Trump: We May Attack Iran Tomorrow Or We May Get A Great Deal, Either Way We WinKurdistan24 · 47 h agoTrump says he is not certain Iran will sign a deal, but the US wins either way, as US intelligence warns Iranian plots against Americans have reached advanced stages and bunker busters arrive on the USS George Washington "I engaged with…
IRAN SHOWDOWN: U.S. Warships Prepare for Possible Escalation as Trump Weighs New Strikes in Coming Weeks@YWN · 44 h agoU.S. warships in the Middle East are preparing for a possible escalation with Iran as President Trump considers another round of military strikes in the coming weeks, according to The Wall Street Journal. During a visit aboard the USS…
US Carrier Prepares for Iran Strikes Amid Tightening SanctionsLokmat Times · 41 h agoA US aircraft carrier is reportedly resupplying for potential renewed military actions against Iran, while restrictions on key Iraqi ... - Latest News. Find Breaking Headlines, Current and Latest international news at Lokmattimes.com A US…
CENTCOM Commander Visits Strait of Hormuz during Milestone WeekDVIDS · 27 h agoSTRAIT OF HORMUZ — The commander of U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) visited the Strait of Hormuz, Oct. 25, as U.S. forces reach the milestone of assisting Gulf partners in exporting more than 1.5 billion barrels of crude oil since summer…
US Pulls Personnel From Mideast Bases Amid Iran Plot WarningKurdistan24 · 2 days agoTrump told a Florida rally Friday "We may do another little Epic Fury." The USS George Washington received a large shipment of standoff missiles and bunker-buster bombs; the US is bringing in an amphibious assault ship loaded with Marines…
Iran's attempts to strike US ships near Hormuz 'unsuccessful': USS George Washington Captain DeLeoGulf News: Latest UAE news · 7 days agoIran's strikes on US ships near Hormuz foiled by USS George Washington crew Capt. Nicholas DeLeo, commanding officer of the forward-deployed USS George Washington, told reporters during a recent media visit in the US Fifth Fleet area that…
CENTCOM chief declares: Strait of Hormuz is free from Iranian minesIsrael National News · 15 h agoCENTCOM chief Adm. Brad Cooper visits the Strait of Hormuz as US forces report helping more than 3,000 ships transit the waterway and keeping shipping lanes clear of Iranian mines. CENTCOM chief declares: Strait of Hormuz is free from…

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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Search. Prices read from the venues 4 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

About this market

VenuePolymarket

Trading closesDec 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET

Traded$46.4K

Today$505

This week$2.7K

At stake$2.9K

In the news7 headlines today, 23 this week

Followed here sinceOct 19, 2026

The rules

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the USS George Washington (CVN-73) departs the U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) area of responsibility by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The Washington will be considered to have departed the CENTCOM area of responsibility upon confirmation by the U.S. Navy, the U.S. Department of Defense, U.S. Central Command, or U.S. Indo-Pacific Command that the ship has departed the CENTCOM area of responsibility or entered the any other area of operations, or upon a consensus of credible reporting confirming that the ship has physically exited the CENTCOM area of responsibility. The departure must occur by the listed deadl

The full rules are on the market's page at Polymarket.

Reading the odds

A prediction market trades contracts that pay $1 if something happens. Its price is the market's chance: a contract at 62¢ means traders give it 62%. Each number here is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.

For a question with many answers (who wins, which range a number lands in), the chances are scaled to add up to 100%. A price ladder ("above 4.25%, above 4.50% ...") gives a whole distribution: its median is where traders see an even chance either way.

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Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Search, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Search index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Search Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions