US-Iran ceasefire continues through...?
64%October 22
- October 2264%▼ 6
- October 2464%▼ 4
- October 2864%▼ 5
6 more
- October 3164%▼ 5
- November 864%▼ 7
- November 1564%▼ 5
- November 2264%▼ 2
- November 3064%▼ 1
- December 3164%▼ 4
Install
Israel military action against Lebanon on...?
The odds
Oct 12, 2026even chance by
- October 620%▲ 3
- October 1885%▲ 3
- October 1985%▲ 11
- October 2085%▲ 4
- October 2185%▲ 2
- October 2285%▼ 3
- October 2385%▼ 3
- October 2485%▲ 1
- October 2585%▼ 3
- October 2685%▼ 3
- October 2785%▲ 6
- October 2885%▲ 1
3 more
- October 2985%▲ 3
- October 3085%
- October 3185%▲ 1
How the odds have moved
Not enough history yet.
Each outcome's chance over time on Polymarket. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Traded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ✓ October 2 | >99% | ▲ 2 | 100¢ | 100¢ | $3.8K | |
| ✓ October 3 | >99% | ▲ 6 | 100¢ | 100¢ | $1.4K | |
| ✓ October 4 | >99% | ▲ 4 | 95¢ | 100¢ | $10.7K | |
| ✓ October 5 | >99% | 78¢ | 100¢ | $8.9K | ||
| October 6 | 20% | ▲ 3 | 13¢ | 26¢ | $3.85 | $7.1K |
| ✓ October 7 | >99% | ▲ 1 | 100¢ | 100¢ | $3K | |
| ✓ October 8 | >99% | ▲ 2 | 100¢ | 100¢ | $3.8K | |
| ✓ October 9 | >99% | ▲ 1 | 100¢ | 100¢ | $2K | |
| ✓ October 10 | >99% | ▲ 5 | 95¢ | 100¢ | $1.7K | |
| ✓ October 11 | >99% | ▲ 10 | 98¢ | 100¢ | $3K | |
| ✓ October 12 | >99% | ▲ 7 | 100¢ | 100¢ | $1.9K | |
| ✓ October 13 | >99% | ▲ 11 | 100¢ | 100¢ | $1.5K | |
| ✓ October 14 | >99% | ▲ 4 | 94¢ | 100¢ | $3.2K | |
| ✓ October 15 | >99% | ▲ 8 | 100¢ | 100¢ | $75.4K | |
| ✓ October 16 | >99% | ▲ 11 | 99¢ | 100¢ | $1.6K | |
| ✓ October 17 | >99% | ▲ 9 | 98¢ | 100¢ | $3.3K | |
| October 18 | 85% | ▲ 3 | 94¢ | 99¢ | $1.01 | $1.1K |
| October 19 | 85% | ▲ 11 | 97¢ | 100¢ | $7K | |
| October 20 | 85% | ▲ 4 | 85¢ | 91¢ | $1.10 | $1.8K |
| October 21 | 85% | ▲ 2 | 88¢ | 92¢ | $1.09 | $880 |
| October 22 | 85% | ▼ 3 | 78¢ | 87¢ | $1.15 | $2K |
| October 23 | 85% | ▼ 3 | 71¢ | 86¢ | $1.16 | $1.2K |
| October 24 | 85% | ▲ 1 | 77¢ | 83¢ | $1.20 | $1.6K |
| October 25 | 85% | ▼ 3 | 77¢ | 82¢ | $1.22 | $986 |
| October 26 | 85% | ▼ 3 | 80¢ | 84¢ | $1.19 | $1.2K |
| October 27 | 85% | ▲ 6 | 74¢ | 79¢ | $1.27 | $3.6K |
| October 28 | 85% | ▲ 1 | 89¢ | 93¢ | $1.08 | $2.7K |
| October 29 | 85% | ▲ 3 | 68¢ | 89¢ | $1.12 | $2.4K |
| October 30 | 85% | 85¢ | 88¢ | $1.14 | $1.6K | |
| October 31 | 85% | ▲ 1 | 72¢ | 79¢ | $1.27 | $3.3K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Israel, Gaza, Netanyahu
Search ›No recent headlines name this market's subject.
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Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...?
71%October 21
- October 2171%▼ 1
- October 3171%▼ 2
- November 1571%▼ 3
2 more
- November 3071%▲ 2
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- March 3132%▲ 3
- October 3132%▲ 5
- November 3032%▲ 3
1 more
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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Search. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Search, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Search index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Search Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use.