Second-best Text Arena Math AI Lab end of December?

Polymarket Tech › AI Closes Dec 31 · $201 today · $19.3K traded · $880 at stake · prices read 2 h ago

The odds

39%Google
  • Google39%
  • Anthropic28%▼ 4
  • Meta12%
  • Moonshot10%▲ 4
  • Z.ai7%▲ 1
  • MiniMax7%
  • SpaceXAI6%
  • Tencent6%
  • Microsoft6%
  • ByteDance6%
  • StepFun5%
  • Alibaba4%
9 more
  • OpenAI4%
  • DeepSeek4%
  • Thinky3%
  • Amazon3%
  • Xiaomi3%▼ 1
  • Nvidia2%
  • Baidu1%
  • Meituan1%
  • Mistral<1%

How the odds have moved

Google: 27% on Oct 20, 39% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Polymarket. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Every outcome

Outcome Chance Day Bid Ask Pays Traded
Google 39% 38¢ 40¢ $2.50 $5.7K
Anthropic 28% ▼ 4 26¢ 31¢ $3.23 $8K
Meta 12% 10¢ 14¢ $7.14 $721
Moonshot 10% ▲ 4 6¢ 14¢ $7.30 $263
Z.ai 7% ▲ 1 1¢ 14¢ $7.25 $245
MiniMax 7% 1¢ 12¢ $8.06 $480
SpaceXAI 6% 1¢ 11¢ $8.93 $275
Tencent 6% 0¢ 11¢ $9.01 $225
Microsoft 6% 0¢ 11¢ $9.09 $208
ByteDance 6% 0¢ 11¢ $9.43 $263
StepFun 5% 1¢ 9¢ $11.24 $562
Alibaba 4% 1¢ 7¢ $14.49 $223
OpenAI 4% 1¢ 7¢ $14.49 $215
DeepSeek 4% 1¢ 7¢ $14.93 $205
Thinky 3% 0¢ 6¢ $16.67 $205
Amazon 3% 0¢ 6¢ $16.95 $245
Xiaomi 3% ▼ 1 0¢ 5¢ $18.87 $263
Nvidia 2% 0¢ 3¢ $33.33 $206
Baidu 1% 0¢ 1¢ $232
Meituan 1% 0¢ 1¢ $205
Mistral <1% 0¢ 0¢ $265

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: Second-best Text Arena Math AI Lab

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Tech › AI

Second-best Text Arena Math AI Lab end of October?

66%Anthropic
  • Anthropic66%▼ 4
  • Google24%▲ 2
  • OpenAI6%▲ 1
17 more
  • Alibaba4%▲ 3
  • Moonshot1%
  • Z.ai1%
  • Baidu1%
  • DeepSeek<1%
  • ByteDance<1%
  • Xiaomi<1%
  • Tencent<1%
  • SpaceXAI<1%
  • Meta<1%
  • Meituan<1%
  • Mistral<1%
  • Nvidia<1%
  • MiniMax<1%
  • Amazon<1%
  • StepFun<1%
  • Microsoft<1%
Tech › AI

Which company has the best AI model end of October?

88%Google
  • Google88%▲ 3
  • Anthropic10%▲ 2
  • Meta<1%
18 more
  • OpenAI<1%
  • Alibaba<1%
  • Moonshot<1%
  • Baidu<1%
  • Z.ai<1%
  • Xiaomi<1%
  • SpaceXAI<1%
  • DeepSeek<1%
  • Amazon<1%
  • ByteDance<1%
  • Nvidia<1%
  • Thinky<1%
  • MiniMax<1%
  • Mistral<1%
  • Meituan<1%
  • Tencent<1%
  • StepFun<1%
  • Microsoft<1%

Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Search. Prices read from the venues 2 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Search, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Search index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Search Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions