Second-best Text Arena Math AI Lab end of November?

Polymarket Tech › AI Closes Nov 30 · $207 today · $21.5K traded · $2.9K at stake · prices read 3 h ago

The odds

53%Google
  • Google53%
  • Anthropic28%▲ 1
  • Baidu9%▲ 8
  • Microsoft8%▲ 7
  • Moonshot6%▼ 1
  • Meta5%
  • OpenAI5%
  • Tencent5%
  • StepFun5%
  • Z.ai4%
  • Amazon4%
  • SpaceXAI4%
9 more
  • DeepSeek4%
  • MiniMax3%
  • Mistral3%
  • Alibaba3%
  • ByteDance2%
  • Xiaomi1%
  • Thinky1%
  • Nvidia1%
  • Meituan1%

How the odds have moved

Google: 45% on Oct 20, 53% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Polymarket. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Why it moved

  1. Oct 21, 7 PM ETGoogle: 44% → 51%

    No headline about it in the hours around this move.

The biggest swings over the chart's period, each with the headlines about the market's subject published in the hours before it. News and odds moving together is not proof one caused the other.

Every outcome

Outcome Chance Day Bid Ask Pays Traded
Google 53% 52¢ 54¢ $1.85 $8.1K
Anthropic 28% ▲ 1 27¢ 29¢ $3.45 $6.2K
Baidu 9% ▲ 8 2¢ 16¢ $6.21 $390
Microsoft 8% ▲ 7 1¢ 14¢ $6.90 $403
Moonshot 6% ▼ 1 1¢ 10¢ $10.10 $556
Meta 5% 1¢ 10¢ $10.10 $243
OpenAI 5% 1¢ 10¢ $10.20 $578
Tencent 5% 1¢ 9¢ $11.36 $368
StepFun 5% 1¢ 9¢ $11.11 $621
Z.ai 4% 1¢ 7¢ $14.29 $237
Amazon 4% 0¢ 7¢ $13.51 $584
SpaceXAI 4% 1¢ 7¢ $14.29 $290
DeepSeek 4% 1¢ 7¢ $14.71 $460
MiniMax 3% 0¢ 6¢ $15.87 $243
Mistral 3% 1¢ 5¢ $18.52 $726
Alibaba 3% 1¢ 5¢ $21.74 $256
ByteDance 2% 0¢ 4¢ $25.00 $235
Xiaomi 1% 1¢ 2¢ $62.50 $256
Thinky 1% 0¢ 2¢ $66.67 $289
Nvidia 1% 0¢ 1¢ $71.43 $236
Meituan 1% 0¢ 1¢ $100.00 $198

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: Second-best Text Arena Math AI Lab

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No recent headlines name this market's subject.

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Tech › AI

Second-best Text Arena Math AI Lab end of October?

62%Anthropic
  • Anthropic62%▼ 1
  • Google22%▲ 4
  • OpenAI6%▲ 3
17 more
  • Alibaba5%▲ 3
  • Moonshot1%
  • Z.ai1%
  • Baidu1%
  • DeepSeek<1%
  • ByteDance<1%
  • Xiaomi<1%
  • Tencent<1%
  • SpaceXAI<1%
  • Meta<1%
  • Meituan<1%
  • Mistral<1%
  • Nvidia<1%
  • MiniMax<1%
  • Amazon<1%
  • StepFun<1%
  • Microsoft<1%
Tech › AI

Second-best Text Arena Math AI Lab end of December?

39%Google
  • Google39%
  • Anthropic30%▼ 3
  • Meta13%▲ 1
18 more
  • Moonshot12%▲ 4
  • Z.ai8%▲ 1
  • Microsoft6%▼ 1
  • SpaceXAI6%
  • MiniMax6%▼ 1
  • Tencent6%
  • ByteDance5%▼ 1
  • StepFun5%
  • Alibaba4%
  • OpenAI4%
  • DeepSeek4%
  • Thinky3%
  • Amazon3%
  • Xiaomi2%
  • Nvidia2%
  • Baidu1%
  • Meituan1%
  • Mistral<1%
Tech › AI

Which company has the best AI model end of October?

87%Google
  • Google87%▲ 2
  • Anthropic11%▲ 1
  • OpenAI1%
18 more
  • Meta<1%
  • Alibaba<1%
  • Moonshot<1%
  • Baidu<1%
  • Z.ai<1%
  • Xiaomi<1%
  • SpaceXAI<1%
  • DeepSeek<1%
  • Amazon<1%
  • ByteDance<1%
  • Nvidia<1%
  • Thinky<1%
  • MiniMax<1%
  • Mistral<1%
  • Meituan<1%
  • Tencent<1%
  • StepFun<1%
  • Microsoft<1%
PolymarketCloses Sat 12:00 PM ET · $82.1K today

Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Search. Prices read from the venues 2 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Search, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Search index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Search Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions