Third-best AI Lab end of December?

Polymarket Tech › AI Closes Dec 31 · $1.2K today · $25.1K traded · $2.4K at stake · prices read 9 min ago

The odds

31%Meta
  • Meta31%▲ 1
  • Google11%
  • Alibaba9%▲ 2
  • Baidu9%
  • Anthropic8%▼ 6
  • Moonshot8%▲ 1
  • Xiaomi5%
  • Tencent4%
  • DeepSeek3%
  • Mistral3%
  • Z.ai3%
  • Thinky3%
9 more
  • OpenAI2%
  • ByteDance2%
  • SpaceXAI2%
  • Meituan<1%
  • Microsoft<1%
  • Amazon<1%
  • StepFun<1%
  • Nvidia<1%
  • MiniMax<1%

How the odds have moved

Meta: 36% on Oct 20, 31% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Polymarket. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Every outcome

Outcome Chance Day Bid Ask Pays Traded
Meta 31% ▲ 1 31¢ 34¢ $2.94 $7.3K
Google 11% 10¢ 15¢ $6.67 $2.2K
Alibaba 9% ▲ 2 3¢ 19¢ $5.26 $540
Baidu 9% 1¢ 20¢ $5.03 $391
Anthropic 8% ▼ 6 8¢ 10¢ $10.00 $5.4K
Moonshot 8% ▲ 1 7¢ 11¢ $9.09 $3.6K
Xiaomi 5% 1¢ 12¢ $8.40 $513
Tencent 4% 0¢ 9¢ $10.64 $354
DeepSeek 3% 0¢ 7¢ $14.49 $387
Mistral 3% 0¢ 6¢ $15.87 $236
Z.ai 3% 1¢ 5¢ $20.00 $478
Thinky 3% 0¢ 6¢ $17.24 $408
OpenAI 2% 1¢ 5¢ $20.83 $402
ByteDance 2% 0¢ 4¢ $22.73 $378
SpaceXAI 2% 1¢ 4¢ $28.57 $407
Meituan <1% 0¢ 1¢ $100.00 $339
Microsoft <1% 0¢ 1¢ $358
Amazon <1% 0¢ 1¢ $359
StepFun <1% 0¢ 0¢ $323
Nvidia <1% 0¢ 0¢ $359
MiniMax <1% 0¢ 0¢ $342

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: Third-best AI Lab

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No recent headlines name this market's subject.

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Tech › AI

Third-best AI Lab end of October?

88%Meta
  • Meta88%
  • Moonshot4%▲ 1
  • Alibaba4%
18 more
  • Anthropic3%▲ 1
  • Google2%
  • Baidu2%▲ 1
  • Xiaomi2%
  • OpenAI1%
  • SpaceXAI1%
  • Tencent<1%
  • Z.ai<1%
  • DeepSeek<1%
  • ByteDance<1%
  • Amazon<1%
  • Nvidia<1%
  • Thinky<1%
  • MiniMax<1%
  • Mistral<1%
  • Meituan<1%
  • StepFun<1%
  • Microsoft<1%
Tech › AI

Which company has the best AI model end of October?

91%Google
  • Google91%▲ 7
  • Anthropic7%▼ 1
  • Meta<1%
18 more
  • OpenAI<1%▼ 2
  • Alibaba<1%
  • Moonshot<1%
  • Baidu<1%
  • Z.ai<1%
  • Xiaomi<1%
  • SpaceXAI<1%
  • DeepSeek<1%
  • Amazon<1%
  • ByteDance<1%
  • Nvidia<1%
  • Thinky<1%
  • MiniMax<1%
  • Mistral<1%
  • Meituan<1%
  • Tencent<1%
  • StepFun<1%
  • Microsoft<1%
Tech › AI

Next Fable Model (5.2+) released on...?

71%No release by October 31
  • No release by October 3171%▲ 7
  • October 2918%▲ 12
  • October 315%▲ 5
11 more
  • October 282%▼ 5
  • October 302%▼ 1
  • October 201%▼ 12
  • October 271%▼ 25
  • October 19<1%▼ 2
  • October 21<1%▼ 5
  • October 22<1%▼ 14
  • October 23<1%▼ 4
  • October 24<1%
  • October 25<1%▼ 1
  • October 26<1%▼ 4
PolymarketCloses Sat 11:59 PM ET · $47.4K today

Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Search. Prices read from the venues 4 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Search, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Search index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Search Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions