Anthropic announces bankruptcy by...?
24%December 31, 2029
- December 31, 202710%
- December 31, 202818%▼ 1
- December 31, 202924%
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# of ChatGPT Outage Days in October 2026?
The odds
4.87median
0.505.50
Median 4.87Middle half 4.56 – 5.19
How the odds have moved
Not enough history yet.
The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Polymarket.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Traded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| <1 | 1% | ▲ 1 | 1¢ | $83.33 | $635 | |
| 1 | <1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | $3K | ||
| 2 | 1% | 0¢ | 3¢ | $40.00 | $4.5K | |
| 3 | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | $100.00 | $7.4K | |
| 4 | 17% | 16¢ | 17¢ | $5.75 | $4.4K | |
| 5+ | 80% | ▼ 4 | 76¢ | 78¢ | $1.28 | $8.7K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: OpenAI, ChatGPT, ChatGPT Outage Days
Search ›No recent headlines name this market's subject.
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All ai ›Which company has the best AI model end of October?
73%Google
- Google73%▼ 3
- Anthropic25%▲ 2
- OpenAI1%
18 more
- Meta<1%
- Alibaba<1%
- Moonshot<1%
- Baidu<1%
- Z.ai<1%
- Xiaomi<1%
- SpaceXAI<1%
- DeepSeek<1%
- Amazon<1%
- ByteDance<1%
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Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
$2.1Thigh with an even chance
Traders see an even chance of trading as high as $2.1T.
- Reaches $1.5T89%
- Reaches $1.75T69%
- Falls to $800B4%
- Falls to $700B4%
Already reached: ↑$1.25T, ↑$1.1T, ↑$1.0T
Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by...?
Oct 25, 2026even chance by
- October 2126%▼ 14
- October 2244%▼ 14
- October 2446%▼ 26
2 more
- October 3179%▼ 3
- December 3198%
Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
51%Anthropic
- Anthropic51%▲ 4
- Google40%▲ 1
- OpenAI6%▼ 2
12 more
- Meta2%▼ 1
- xAI1%
- Alibaba<1%
- DeepSeek<1%
- Moonshot<1%
- Z.ai<1%
- Mistral<1%
- Microsoft<1%
- Amazon<1%
- ByteDance<1%
- Baidu<1%
- Meituan<1%
Next Fable Model (5.2+) released on...?
23%October 20
- October 2023%▼ 8
- No release by October 3120%▲ 2
- October 2217%▼ 1
11 more
- October 2713%▲ 5
- October 294%▼ 2
- October 244%▼ 1
- October 213%▼ 5
- October 233%▼ 3
- October 262%
- October 192%▲ 1
- October 281%
- October 251%
- October 301%
- October 31<1%
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Search. Prices read from the venues 4 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Search, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Search index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Search Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use.