US-Iran ceasefire continues through...?
67%October 22
- October 2267%▼ 2
- October 2467%▼ 2
- October 2867%▼ 1
6 more
- October 3167%▼ 2
- November 867%▼ 2
- November 1567%▼ 1
- November 2267%▲ 1
- November 3067%▲ 2
- December 3167%▲ 2
Install
Next Israeli Minister of Defense?
The odds
37%No Next Minister by Feb 28
- No Next Minister by Feb 2837%▲ 2
- Avigdor Lieberman21%▲ 16
- Naftali Bennett18%▼ 1
- Israel Katz8%▼ 1
- Itamar Ben Gvir4%
- Yair Lapid4%
- Elazar Stern4%▼ 1
- Ofer Winter4%▼ 1
- Gadi Eizenkot3%▲ 1
- Bezalel Smotrich3%▼ 3
- Yoram Cohen2%
- Benjamin Netanyahu2%▼ 2
6 more
- Moshe Feiglin2%
- Benny Gantz<1%▼ 1
- Yair Golan<1%▼ 5
- Amir Ohana<1%
- Eli Cohen<1%
- Matan Kahana<1%
How the odds have moved
Not enough history yet.
Each outcome's chance over time on Polymarket. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Traded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No Next Minister by Feb 28 | 37% | ▲ 2 | 37¢ | 41¢ | $2.44 | $39.2K |
| Avigdor Lieberman | 21% | ▲ 16 | 21¢ | 23¢ | $4.39 | $6.6K |
| Naftali Bennett | 18% | ▼ 1 | 18¢ | 19¢ | $5.18 | $1.9K |
| Israel Katz | 8% | ▼ 1 | 8¢ | 10¢ | $10.20 | $7.2K |
| Itamar Ben Gvir | 4% | 1¢ | 9¢ | $11.76 | $507 | |
| Yair Lapid | 4% | 1¢ | 8¢ | $12.50 | $384 | |
| Elazar Stern | 4% | ▼ 1 | 1¢ | 8¢ | $12.66 | $1.4K |
| Ofer Winter | 4% | ▼ 1 | 3¢ | 6¢ | $17.24 | $8.5K |
| Gadi Eizenkot | 3% | ▲ 1 | 1¢ | 7¢ | $15.15 | $637 |
| Bezalel Smotrich | 3% | ▼ 3 | 1¢ | 6¢ | $16.13 | $688 |
| Yoram Cohen | 2% | 1¢ | 5¢ | $19.61 | $493 | |
| Benjamin Netanyahu | 2% | ▼ 2 | 1¢ | 5¢ | $20.41 | $354 |
| Moshe Feiglin | 2% | 0¢ | 5¢ | $20.83 | $566 | |
| Benny Gantz | <1% | ▼ 1 | 0¢ | 1¢ | $100.00 | $3K |
| Yair Golan | <1% | ▼ 5 | 0¢ | 1¢ | $100.00 | $676 |
| Amir Ohana | <1% | 1¢ | $100.00 | $206 | ||
| Eli Cohen | <1% | 0¢ | 0¢ | $492 | ||
| Matan Kahana | <1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | $827 |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Israeli Minister of Defense, Avigdor Lieberman, Naftali Bennett
Search ›No recent headlines name this market's subject.
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All middle east ›Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
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- Gadi Eizenkot51%▲ 6
- Benjamin Netanyahu28%▼ 3
- Naftali Bennett14%▲ 1
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- Avigdor Lieberman4%▲ 1
- Itamar Ben Gvir<1%
- Yair Lapid<1%
- Yossi Cohen<1%
- Israel Katz<1%
- Amir Ohana<1%
- Ofer Winter<1%
- Benny Gantz<1%
- Yair Golan<1%
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Who wins the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement by Oct 23?
90%No Hormuz Agreement
- No Hormuz Agreement90%▼ 6
- Hormuz Agreement; D Senate4%▲ 2
- Hormuz Agreement; R Senate3%▲ 2
US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?
37%December 31
- March 3132%▲ 4
- October 3132%▲ 4
- November 3032%▲ 3
1 more
- December 3137%▲ 2
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...?
72%October 21
- October 2172%▼ 1
- October 3172%▼ 3
- November 1572%
2 more
- November 3072%▼ 1
- December 3172%▲ 3
Who wins the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement before the midterms?
85%No Hormuz Agreement
- No Hormuz Agreement85%▼ 6
- Hormuz Agreement; D Senate8%▲ 4
- Hormuz Agreement; R Senate5%▲ 1
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Search. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Search, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Search index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Search Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use.