What will JD Vance say during his rally in Kansas?

Kalshi Mentions › Politicians Closes Nov 9 · $4.3K today · $6.7K traded · $5.9K at stake · prices read 8 min ago

The odds

96%Democrat
  • Democrat96%▲ 5
  • Election89%▲ 2
  • Farm / Farmer88%▼ 2
  • Border87%▼ 1
  • Afford / Affordable / Affordability85%▲ 7
  • Biden84%
  • Fraud80%▼ 6
  • Tax on Tips / Tax on Overtime79%▲ 5
  • 2028 / Campaign78%▲ 3
  • Manufacture / Manufacturing67%▲ 4
  • Illegal Alien66%▲ 7
  • Working Class / Middle Class64%▲ 9
16 more
  • Economy / Economic64%
  • Social Security63%▼ 6
  • Healthcare61%▲ 26
  • Inflation58%▲ 8
  • Radical Left48%▲ 23
  • Steel45%
  • Fertilizer45%▼ 16
  • American Dream34%▲ 9
  • Oil / Gas / Gasoline32%▼ 6
  • Small Business32%▼ 8
  • America First32%▲ 14
  • Tariff30%▲ 20
  • China / Chinese28%▲ 5
  • Made in America / American Made14%▲ 6
  • AI / Artificial Intelligence12%▼ 7
  • Event does not qualify1%▼ 2

How the odds have moved

Democrat: 86% on Oct 24, 96% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Every outcome

Outcome Chance Day Bid Ask Pays Contracts
Democrat 96% ▲ 5 95¢ 97¢ $1.03 631
Election 89% ▲ 2 87¢ 90¢ $1.11 272
Farm / Farmer 88% ▼ 2 71¢ 88¢ $1.14 111
Border 87% ▼ 1 85¢ 88¢ $1.14 509
Afford / Affordable / Affordability 85% ▲ 7 68¢ 81¢ $1.23 149
Biden 84% 80¢ 87¢ $1.15 265
Fraud 80% ▼ 6 69¢ 80¢ $1.25 180
Tax on Tips / Tax on Overtime 79% ▲ 5 77¢ 80¢ $1.25 136
2028 / Campaign 78% ▲ 3 75¢ 80¢ $1.25 384
Manufacture / Manufacturing 67% ▲ 4 63¢ 70¢ $1.43 178
Illegal Alien 66% ▲ 7 51¢ 65¢ $1.54 350
Working Class / Middle Class 64% ▲ 9 59¢ 69¢ $1.45 1.2K
Economy / Economic 64% 45¢ 64¢ $1.56 276
Social Security 63% ▼ 6 60¢ 73¢ $1.37 219
Healthcare 61% ▲ 26 50¢ 61¢ $1.64 252
Inflation 58% ▲ 8 53¢ 63¢ $1.59 158
Radical Left 48% ▲ 23 47¢ 48¢ $2.08 2.3K
Steel 45% 43¢ 47¢ $2.13 462
Fertilizer 45% ▼ 16 42¢ 48¢ $2.08 128
American Dream 34% ▲ 9 34¢ 46¢ $2.17 319
Oil / Gas / Gasoline 32% ▼ 6 28¢ 36¢ $2.78 684
Small Business 32% ▼ 8 30¢ 33¢ $3.03 669
America First 32% ▲ 14 28¢ 35¢ $2.86 891
Tariff 30% ▲ 20 25¢ 34¢ $2.94 603
China / Chinese 28% ▲ 5 25¢ 31¢ $3.23 266
Made in America / American Made 14% ▲ 6 13¢ 14¢ $7.14 1.4K
AI / Artificial Intelligence 12% ▼ 7 10¢ 14¢ $7.14 876
Event does not qualify 1% ▼ 2 1¢ $100.00 892

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: JD Vance, Midterm Rally, Kansas

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  • Economy / Economic75%
  • Democrat74%
  • Fraud65%
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  • Trump (3+ times)63%
  • Working Class / Middle Class62%
  • Iran / Iranian56%
  • Inflation56%
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  • Data Center26%
  • Healthcare23%
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What will Trump say this week? (Before Oct 26, 2026)

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  • Bibi / Netanyahu99%▲ 73
  • Autopen / Auto Pen<1%▼ 14
  • TDS / Trump Derangement Syndrome<1%▼ 19
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  • Stupid Question<1%▼ 12
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  • Houthi<1%▼ 6
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  • Crypto / Bitcoin<1%▼ 2
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  • Antifa<1%▼ 5
  • Peace in the Middle East<1%▼ 3
  • UFO / UAP<1%▼ 4
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What will Trump say during his rally in Lubbock, Texas?

96%Cheat / Cheater / Cheating
  • Cheat / Cheater / Cheating96%▲ 3
  • Save America Act94%▼ 1
  • Barack Hussein Obama90%
32 more
  • Sleepy Joe87%▼ 1
  • America First87%▲ 13
  • China / Chinese85%▲ 1
  • Sanctuary85%
  • Iran (5+ times)83%▲ 6
  • France82%▲ 1
  • Made in America / American Made81%▲ 8
  • Tariff (3+ times)80%▼ 3
  • Russia / Ukraine79%▲ 5
  • Supreme Court77%▼ 7
  • ICE76%▼ 10
  • Hormuz75%▲ 12
  • Nuclear (3+ times)72%▼ 14
  • Gulf of America69%▼ 6
  • Drill Baby Drill68%
  • Kamala57%▼ 15
  • Data Center55%▲ 9
  • Blockade52%▼ 5
  • Electricity41%▼ 20
  • Israel / Israeli38%▲ 3
  • Trump Account27%▼ 2
  • Social Security (5+ times)25%
  • Deport / Deported / Deportation23%▼ 6
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  • AI / Artificial Intelligence22%▼ 12
  • Windmill20%▲ 1
  • Fentanyl14%▼ 6
  • Palestine / Palestinian8%
  • Ceasefire6%▼ 8
  • Event does not qualify3%▼ 1
  • Peace in the Middle East2%
  • Crypto / Bitcoin2%
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98%Save America Act
  • Save America Act98%
  • China / Chinese89%
  • Ilhan / Omar89%
32 more
  • Nuclear (3+ times)88%
  • Iran (5+ times)86%
  • Tariff (3+ times)79%
  • America First72%
  • ICE71%
  • Made in America / American Made68%
  • Hormuz66%
  • Russia / Ukraine64%
  • Gulf of America64%
  • Kamala63%
  • Supreme Court53%
  • Veteran49%
  • Data Center48%
  • Blockade47%
  • Insurance43%
  • Israel / Israeli37%
  • Elon / Musk28%
  • AI / Artificial Intelligence28%
  • Drill Baby Drill26%
  • Trump Account20%
  • Social Security (5+ times)19%
  • Hegseth19%
  • Fraud (3+ times)18%
  • Windmill17%
  • Deport / Deported / Deportation17%
  • Palestine / Palestinian16%
  • Electricity15%
  • Fentanyl13%
  • Ceasefire4%
  • Crypto / Bitcoin2%
  • Peace in the Middle East2%
  • Event does not qualify2%
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  • Marjorie Traitor Greene88%▲ 8
  • Crying Chuck / Cryin Chuck70%▲ 17
  • Slopadopolous / Slopadopolus70%▲ 1
10 more
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  • Fat Slob34%▼ 1
  • Low Energy26%▲ 2
  • Crazy Nancy25%▲ 1
  • Crazy Bernie20%▲ 2
  • Fake Tapper16%▼ 2
  • Little Communist14%
  • Biden Crime Family13%▲ 2
  • Rocket Man11%▼ 1
  • Comrade Kamala10%▲ 2
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