Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled?
99%chance
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Which USMCA outcomes will occur in 2026?
The odds
36%U.S.–Mexico interim agreement
- U.S.–Mexico interim agreement36%▼ 1
- U.S.–Canada interim agreement28%
- Trilateral revised deal26%▲ 1
- Formal 16-year extension16%
- U.S. withdrawal notice16%
- Formal USMCA amendment16%
- Mexican withdrawal notice9%▼ 1
- Canadian withdrawal notice8%▲ 1
How the odds have moved
U.S.–Mexico interim agreement: 37% on Oct 20, 36% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| U.S.–Mexico interim agreement | 36% | ▼ 1 | 31¢ | 41¢ | $2.44 | 572 |
| U.S.–Canada interim agreement | 28% | 23¢ | 32¢ | $3.13 | 401 | |
| Trilateral revised deal | 26% | ▲ 1 | 23¢ | 29¢ | $3.45 | 696 |
| Formal 16-year extension | 16% | 12¢ | 20¢ | $5.00 | 5.3K | |
| U.S. withdrawal notice | 16% | 12¢ | 20¢ | $5.00 | 2.4K | |
| Formal USMCA amendment | 16% | 11¢ | 20¢ | $5.00 | 1.4K | |
| Mexican withdrawal notice | 9% | ▼ 1 | 4¢ | 13¢ | $7.69 | 749 |
| Canadian withdrawal notice | 8% | ▲ 1 | 4¢ | 11¢ | $9.09 | 1.7K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: USMCA
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USMCA Rules of Origin Audit Manual: AMIA’s Proposal to the USITC22nd of October, 2026 The Mexican Automotive Industry Association (AMIA) proposed the creation of a T-MEC rules of origin audit manual. This proposal was submitted to the U.S. International Trade Commission (USITC) in a letter sent this… -
USMCA is good deal for agricultureMinnesota’s ag commissioner says he’s optimistic the U.S., Canada and Mexico can find a way to strengthen its trading relationship and renew a long-term trade agreement.Thom Petersen says the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement is a good deal… -
Daily Memo: Don’t Tune Out For Summer Yet, USMCA Talks Are ComingJust when commercial aerospace executives thought it was safe to start planning their summer vacations, here comes Nafta negotiations again. Daily Memo: Don’t Tune Out For Summer Yet, USMCA Talks Are Coming Based in Washington, Michael… -
U.S.-Mexico tariff dispute complicates USMCA talksTrade negotiations between the United States and Mexico are facing new challenges as disagreements over tariffs on automobiles, steel and aluminum threaten to complicate efforts to reach an agreement ahead of the upcoming review of the… -
U.S.-Mexico trade talks reportedly stall over auto tariffs, raising concerns for USMCAU.S. trade negotiations with Mexico have reportedly stalled amid disagreements over tariffs on auto imports and steel and aluminum, raising further uncertainty about the future of the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA). The… -
USMCA Update - U.S. Trade Representative Discusses Canada with Glenn BeckGlenn Beck interviewed U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer last week. Within the interview USTR Greer walks through some of the current geopolitical issues surrounding trade and MAGAnomics beginning with Iran, oil and gas prices, the… -
Mexico Negotiations Stall Following Canada Breakdown, Calling Into Question the Future of USMCATrade negotiations between the United States and Mexico have reached an impasse after months of talks between officials about a deal to reduce duties on critical imports from beyond the southern border. Objections from U.S. Commerce… -
Déjà Vu? U.S.-Mexico Trade Talks Stall on Tariffs, Echoing Canada Dispute as USMCA Review NearsCALGARY, ALBERTA (RFD-TV) — U.S.-Mexico trade negotiations have stalled over tariffs on automobiles, steel and aluminum, adding uncertainty to North American trade relations and raising questions about potential effects on American… -
DOL Seeks To Extend USMCA Wage Records CollectionLaw360 DOL Seeks To Extend USMCA Wage Records Collection By Benjamin Morse · October 15, 2026, 2:03 PM EDT Get instant access to the one-stop news source for business lawyers Email (NOTE: Free email domains not supported) Password (at… -
USMCA review could shape future of U.S. pork exportsBrownfield Ag News USMCA review could shape future of U.S. pork exports The executive director of the Nebraska Pork Producers Association says any disruption to the USMCA agreement could devastate the industry. Seth Mitchell says… -
Mexico acknowledges lack of agreement with US on tariffs, though confirms USMCA remains in effect-Yieh Corp Steel News16 Oct 2026 10:20 reported by Raul Lee US probes EU's CBAM over potential trade barriers Pakistan maintains AD duties on Chinese cold-rolled steel coils and sheets China reduces VAT export rebate rate for new energy vehicles US announces… -
AXN Automotive Systems earns USMCA Certification for Louisville-built axlesAXN Automotive Systems, a member of global mobility leader Randoncorp, has received United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) certification for axle products made at its Louisville, Ky., facility, marking a significant milestone in the…
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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Search. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Search, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Search index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Search Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use.