Traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait? (10/26 - 11/1)
189.1median
140230
Median 189.1Middle half 174.1 – 200.9
Install
Will the US recognize Argentine sovereignty over the Falklands? (Before January 2027)
The odds
13%chance▼ 1
How the odds have moved
Yes: 9% on Oct 19, 13% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 13% | ▼ 1 | 11¢ | 15¢ | $6.67 | 2.5K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Argentine, Falklands
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US Flags Argentina Falklands Bill on 22 OctARGENTINA · US RELATIONS US Deputy Secretary of State Christopher Landau said in Buenos Aires on Thursday 22 October 2026 that Washington is watching a proposed Argentine law that could punish US companies over the disputed Falklands… -
Netanyahu instructs support for Argentina on the sovereignty of the Falkland IslandsIt has been claimed that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu instructed Israeli diplomats abroad to support Argentina's claims to the Falkland (Malvinas) Islands. According to the report by the British newspaper The Telegraph, based… -
Report: Netanyahu shifts Israel's stance on Falkland Islands in favor of ArgentinaAccording to The Telegraph, Benjamin Netanyahu ordered Israeli diplomats to back Argentina's sovereignty claim over the Falkland Islands, disputed with Britain; the shift is believed to be linked to British sanctions on Israeli settlements… -
Report: Netanyahu Told Diplomats to Back Argentina's Call for Falklands TalksThe alleged change in policy comes after Britain introduced sanctions against Israeli products manufactured in the West Bank, as Netanyahu's coalition seeks closer ties with right-leaning governments in South and Central America Prime… -
Report: 'Netanyahu ordered policy shift to support Argentina in Falkland Islands dispute'The British Telegraph reported that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has decided that Israel will support Argentina on the Falkland Islands issue. According to the report, he instructed diplomats to change Israel's official position, to… -
Netanyahu Has Told Israeli Diplomats To Support Argentine Push For Falklands Talks: ReportIsraeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu told Israeli diplomats to support Buenos Aires' calls for diplomatic talks over the future of the Falklands Islands, a self-governing British Overseas Territory which Argentina calls the Malvinas… -
‘The Falklands will eventually be recovered’: Chilling warning as Argentina eyes advanced EU submarinesFrance and Germany are facing calls to explain their reported offers to finance a new fleet of hunter-killer submarines for Argentina, amid warnings that the proposed deal could complicate Britain’s ability to defend the Falkland Islands… -
Falkland Islands Row: France & Germany Offer to Build Submarines for Argentina, Amid Rising Tensions With BritainFalkland Islands Row: Earlier this month, Argentina’s military chief said that the country is seeking submarines. Now, it has received offers regarding the same from France & Germany. The development comes as the longstanding territorial… -
‘900 million barrels of black gold’: Burnham warns Trump as Argentina moves to halt Falklands drillingAndy Burnham has warned Donald Trump of the economic consequences of Argentina’s “coercive” measures against British-linked oil exploration in the Falkland Islands, as a dispute over a potentially vast South Atlantic oilfield threatens to… - Supporting talks between Britain, Argentina on Falkland Islands the right moveIsrael’s call for direct negotiations between Britain and Argentina over the Falkland Islands deserves qualified support. According to The Jerusalem Post’s report, Ambassador Danny Danon urged talks at the United Nations. However, the…
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France and Germany offer to supply Argentina submarines amid Falklands threat as Andy Burnham seeks Brexit resetThe Prime Minister told the House of Commons it would be a 'dereliction of duty' not to seek closer ties with the European Union WATCH: GB News's Mark White travels to the Falklands France and Germany's top defence firms are offering… -
Germany and France offer to build submarines for Argentina as threat to the Falkland Islands risesGerman and French manufacturers have made offers to build three submarines for Argentina and revamp its drab naval fleet as the country seeks to advance its claim to the Falkland Islands. President Javier Milei previously warned his…
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Feb 27, 2028even chance by
- Before Nov 1, 20262%
- Before Dec 1, 20265%
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- Before Apr 1, 202718%
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- Before Jan 1, 202848%▼ 1
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Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Search, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Search index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Search Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use.