Traffic through the Suez Canal? (10/19 - 10/25)
295median
250340
Median 295Middle half 285 – 306.0
Install
Traffic through the Suez Canal? (10/26 - 11/1)
The odds
295.1median
250340
Median 295.1Middle half 282.6 – 308.4
How the odds have moved
Median: 293.4 on Oct 25, 295.1 now.
The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 260 | 93% | ▼ 2 | 92¢ | 93¢ | $1.08 | 9.8K |
| Above 270 | 88% | ▼ 4 | 87¢ | 88¢ | $1.14 | 8.6K |
| Above 280 | 81% | ▼ 1 | 78¢ | 83¢ | $1.20 | 7.5K |
| Above 290 | 60% | ▲ 3 | 57¢ | 62¢ | $1.61 | 3.5K |
| Above 300 | 41% | ▲ 3 | 38¢ | 44¢ | $2.27 | 823 |
| Above 310 | 22% | 21¢ | 23¢ | $4.35 | 500 | |
| Above 320 | 10% | ▲ 1 | 9¢ | 10¢ | $10.00 | 300 |
| Above 330 | 6% | ▼ 1 | 5¢ | 6¢ | $16.67 | 922 |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Suez Canal
Search ›-
Recommended StoriesWashington Examiner is a news organization based in Washington, D.C., covering Congress, the White House, national security, the courts and elections, with breaking news, investigative reporting and conservative analysis. It publishes a… -
Could Hormuz become America’s Suez?October 25, 2026 at 12:10 pm After Egyptian President Gamal Abdel Nasser nationalised the Suez Canal in July 1956, Britain, France and Israel launched a military campaign to regain control of the canal and weaken Nasser’s government. Their… -
UT historian Roger Louis, British Empire scholar, dies at 90Wm. Roger Louis, distinguished UT historian of the British Empire, died Friday at age 90. Roger Louis, who wrote or edited more than 60 books on the British Empire and taught at University of Texas for 50 years, died Friday at his Austin… -
Santorini Serves Lionfish to 300+ Diners in Guinness World Record BidDuring the lionfish tasting record attempt, every guest tried at least three different recipes. Chefs from Greece and abroad cooked the dishes alongside restaurant professionals. Why a lionfish tasting record matters The night formed part… -
PETER HITCHENS: Suez Crisis made Britain a second-rate, humiliated nation. 70 years on, Labour is trying to make us a third-rate stateFor me, October 1956, 70 years ago, is the point at which history turns into the present day. This is because I can just remember it. It is also the point at which the world turns from black and white into colour. Before, everything in… -
Ethiopia Calls for Shared Red Sea SecurityETHIOPIA · RED SEA SECURITY Ethiopia’s intelligence chief says no handful of countries can keep the Red Sea safe alone. He spoke on Friday, 23 October, as a regional security forum opened in Bahir Dar. Ethiopia called for shared Red Sea… -
Egypt targets 12.5 million feddans of farmland, annual car production of +100k: MadboulyEgypt aims to expand its cultivated area to 12.5 million feddans, increase annual domestic car production to more than 100,000 vehicles and raise local content in automotive manufacturing to 60%, Prime Minister Mostafa Madbouly said in a… - Hapag-Lloyd Plans Broader Return to Suez Canal TransitsHapag-Lloyd, the Hamburg-based shipping company, expects additional services to resume transits through the Suez Canal, according to a statement from the Suez Canal Authority reported by Arab Finance. The anticipated expansion would add to…
- Intense diplomacy ongoing as Egypt seeks to avert regional escalation: foreign ministry spokesmanZaki added in an interview with 'Al-Sharq' that Istanbul witnessed highly important meetings, including between the R4 group countries, namely Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Pakistan, which he described as "like-minded" countries, and on…
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More shipping services expected to return to Suez CanalAdm. Ossama Rabiee, Chairman of the Suez Canal Authority, met with Juan Pablo Richards, Regional Head for Southern Europe at Hapag-Lloyd, to discuss ways of strengthening cooperation. The meeting took place at the Authority's headquarters… -
Iran War Updates: Trump envoy says war could last another year as oil prices continue risingOctober 23, 2026 / 5:38 AM EDT / CBS News U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations Mike Waltz has said the war with Iran could drag on for another year. Waltz told the FT the U.S. will not have achieved its key goals in Iran until the country…
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All world leaders ›Traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait? (10/26 - 11/1)
189.3median
140230
Median 189.3Middle half 177.2 – 200.9
Traffic through the Panama Canal? (10/19 - 10/25)
197.4median
160230
Median 197.4Middle half 189.8 – 202.9
When will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal?
Feb 16, 2028even chance by
- Before Nov 1, 20261%▼ 1
- Before Dec 1, 20265%
- Before Jan 1, 20277%▼ 1
14 more
- Before Feb 1, 20279%▼ 1
- Before Mar 1, 202713%▼ 2
- Before Apr 1, 202717%▼ 1
- Before May 1, 202719%▼ 2
- Before Jun 1, 202725%
- Before Jul 1, 202731%
- Before Aug 1, 202733%
- Before Sep 1, 202734%▼ 1
- Before Oct 1, 202737%
- Before Nov 1, 202741%
- Before Dec 1, 202741%
- Before Jan 1, 202848%▼ 1
- Before Jul 1, 202857%▲ 2
- Before Jan 1, 202960%
Will France declare a state of emergency? (Before Jan 1, 2027)
18%Before Jan 1, 2027
- Before Nov 1, 20265%▼ 7
- Before Jan 1, 202718%▼ 2
Traffic through the Panama Canal? (10/26 - 11/1)
192.8median
160230
Median 192.8Middle half 185.7 – 202.7
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Search. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Search, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Search index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Search Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions