Traffic through the Panama Canal? (10/26 - 11/1)
193.0median
160230
Median 193.0Middle half 186.8 – 202.7
Install
Traffic through the Panama Canal? (10/19 - 10/25)
The odds
197.1median
160230
Median 197.1Middle half 189.4 – 202.4
How the odds have moved
Median: 190.5 on Oct 20, 197.1 now.
The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 170 | 98% | 97¢ | 98¢ | $1.02 | 27.7K | |
| Above 180 | 96% | 95¢ | 96¢ | $1.04 | 26.9K | |
| Above 185 | 91% | ▲ 1 | 90¢ | 91¢ | $1.10 | 31.9K |
| Above 190 | 73% | ▼ 2 | 72¢ | 74¢ | $1.35 | 22.2K |
| Above 195 | 60% | ▼ 1 | 59¢ | 60¢ | $1.67 | 6.8K |
| Above 200 | 37% | ▼ 4 | 36¢ | 37¢ | $2.70 | 15.1K |
| Above 205 | 13% | ▼ 4 | 11¢ | 15¢ | $6.67 | 23.7K |
| Above 210 | 5% | 4¢ | 5¢ | $20.00 | 18.5K | |
| Above 220 | 3% | 2¢ | 3¢ | $33.33 | 10.2K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Panama Canal
Search ›-
Beijing Is Building a Massive Bridge in America's BackyardA Chinese construction conglomerate has laid the groundwork for building Latin America’s longest cable-stayed bridge in Brazil by 2031. The Salvador-Itaparica Bridge will be built via public-private partnership including Chinese… -
The best Christmas cruises to book NOW - from winter sun in the Canaries to an Antarctic adventureBy KATHERINE MASTERS FOR THE MAIL ON SUNDAY A cruise can be just the tonic if you want to escape the cooking – and the washing up – and sail into the new year feeling like you've had a proper adventure. SLEIGH WINTER BLUES IN THE CANARIES… -
What To Know About Country Strategy Meeting On PanamaOn 21-22 October, the World Economic Forum, in collaboration with the Government of Panama, will convene a Country Strategy Meeting in Panama City, bringing together leaders in government and business to discuss the nation's growth and… -
Island Princess on 50-Night Cruise to the MediterraneanThe Island Princess sailed from Fort Lauderdale earlier this month for a special 50-night cruise to Europe and the Mediterranean. Sailing roundtrip from Florida, the “Grand Mediterranean Odyssey” itinerary will visit 24 ports in 10… -
Who Runs Panama’s Economy, the Key Players in 2026The Panama economy turns on four things: the canal, banks, an airline hub and a closed copper mine. This guide names who controls each one in October 2026 and what it means for US readers. Moving to Panama 2026: the step-by-step checklist… -
Panama Canal Revenue Jumps 16.6% to US$6.6BPanama Canal revenue reached US$6.6 billion in the fiscal year to 30 September 2026, up 16.6%, according to the Panama Canal Authority. The state agency that runs the waterway published the preliminary results on Wednesday 21 October 2026… -
Panama Canal transits rise 4.1% in fiscal year 2026The Panama Canal recorded growth in both vessel transits and tonnage in Fiscal Year 2026, which ran from October 2025 through September 2026. The results underscore the waterway's ability to meet the demand of global maritime trade while… - Nicaragua mining bridgehead: project scale and security lens for engineersChinese state-aligned miners have secured concessions over more than one million hectares in Nicaragua—around 8.5% of national territory—targeting high-grade epithermal gold systems such as the 50 km La India district, valued at an…
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Panama Canal transits rise 4.1% as waterway restores last minute bookingsThe Panama Canal recorded higher vessel traffic, tonnage and revenue in fiscal year 2026, while improving water conditions allowed the authority to restore last minute transit reservations at its Panamax locks. The canal handled 13,951… -
Holland America Line New Beach Club and Food Pavilion at Half Moon CayGuests sailing on Holland America Line’s Caribbean cruises this season will discover a refreshed RelaxAway, Half Moon Cay, where a series of newly completed enhancements brings even more ways to relax, dine and enjoy the island. The… -
Top Republicans declare war on Trump's favorite new congressmanPresident Donald Trump is known for demanding unquestioning loyalty from his closest associates, and in the case of one ostensibly conservative lawmaker, that loyalty is alienating him from an unexpected group — other conservatives. Rep… -
After a year of unusual weather in Chicago, should you brace for winter?A group of people cross the Dearborn Street Bridge as snow falls in the Chicago area. It’s been a year marked by heavy rain, a record number of tornadoes and heatwaves. Then in mid-October, temperatures hit 88 degrees in Chicago. That beat…
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14 more
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Traffic through the Suez Canal? (10/19 - 10/25)
296.6median
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Median 296.6Middle half 289.7 – 306.9
Will France declare a state of emergency? (Before Jan 1, 2027)
14%Before Jan 1, 2027
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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Search. Prices read from the venues 3 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Search, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Search index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Search Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions