Traffic through the Panama Canal? (10/26 - 11/1)
193.8median
160230
Median 193.8Middle half 187.0 – 200.6
Install
Will France declare a state of emergency? (Before Jan 1, 2027)
The odds
9%Before Jan 1, 2027
- Before Nov 1, 20264%▼ 1
- Before Jan 1, 20279%▼ 10
How the odds have moved
Before Nov 1, 2026: 19% on Oct 20, 4% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Why it moved
- Oct 20, 11 PM ETBefore Nov 1, 2026: 19% → 13%
The biggest swings over the chart's period, each with the headlines about the market's subject published in the hours before it. News and odds moving together is not proof one caused the other.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Before Nov 1, 2026 | 4% | ▼ 1 | 3¢ | 4¢ | $25.00 | 73.4K |
| Before Jan 1, 2027 | 9% | ▼ 10 | 8¢ | 9¢ | $11.11 | 28.3K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: France
Search ›-
Trump says he WARNED Macron: 'You are DESTROYING France'President Donald Trump discusses immigration in Europe during an appearance on 'Sunday Morning Futures,' criticizing policies in France, Spain and Italy and recalling a warning he says he delivered to French President Emmanuel Macron… -
Far-left groups 'hijacked' France protests, expert saysFormer ambassador-at-large Nathan Sales discusses the widespread security threat from the European protests that turned into riots. Sales also weighs in on former President Barack Obama's Iran nuclear deal. Far-left groups 'hijacked'… -
Obama campaigns for Democrats, and France demonstrations continue: Weekend RundownFormer President Barack Obama, appearing in Ohio on Saturday at his first campaign rally of this fall’s midterm elections, called President Donald Trump an agent of “chaos and cruelty” and a man of broken promises. Obama’s visit was aimed… -
France riots spread to Albania, beyond as demonstrators clash with police©2026 Fox News Network, LLC. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed. All market data delayed 20 minutes. France riots spread to Albania, beyond as demonstrators clash with police… -
Democrats scheme to turn the US into France — riots and all“This is what happens when nations let wealth and power accumulate in the hands of a few,” says prospective 2028 presidential candidate Rep. Ro Khanna about the mass rioting and social unrest unfolding in France. As with most issues, the… -
Up to 70,000 officers deployed across France to combat riotsThousands of police officers in riot gear descended on Paris Saturday to monitor France's only sanctioned protest. The officers -- wearing helmets and carrying shields -- uniformly walked through the city as protesters shouted obscenities… -
BBC Audio | Weekend | Clashes erupt across several cities in FranceFrench police have arrested nearly a thousand people during another day of mass protests over the cost of living that saw clashes in many cities. Clashes erupt across several cities in France Available for 29 days French police have… -
From France to Albania: What's bringing protestors to the streets in Europe?Widespread protests are gripping several European nations. NPR's Ayesha Rascoe asks British historian Timothy Garton Ash what's roiling the continent. From France to Albania: What's bringing protestors to the streets in Europe? Widespread… -
NFL game kicks off in France after mass protestsThe NFL kicked off its first-ever game in France on Sunday, despite widespread protests this weekend in cities across that country. Thousands of American fans showed up for the Steelers-Saints game amidst tight security and heavily armed… -
France braces for another weekend of protestsCBS News Los Angeles Weekend 8am CBS News Miami This Morning 10am CBS News New York Saturday 11am Hometown High Q Classics CBS News Texas 9am -
France weighs on the outlook for Eurozone growth, Berenberg's Schmieding saysBerenberg Chief Economist Holger Schmieding discusses the impact of Franceâs fiscal and political challenges on the economic growth outlook for the Eurozone, ECB monetary policy, and the 2027 French presidential election. France weighs… -
BBC Audio | Newshour | Hundreds of protesters arrested in FranceFor a second week running, France has taken to the streets in protest about the cost of living. Most marches were peaceful but nearly one thousand people have been arrested and two have been seriously ... Hundreds of protesters arrested in…
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All world leaders ›When will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal?
Feb 11, 2028even chance by
- Before Nov 1, 20261%
- Before Dec 1, 20266%▲ 1
- Before Jan 1, 20278%▲ 1
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- Before Feb 1, 20278%▼ 1
- Before Mar 1, 202713%
- Before Apr 1, 202718%▲ 1
- Before May 1, 202719%
- Before Jun 1, 202725%
- Before Jul 1, 202732%▲ 1
- Before Aug 1, 202733%
- Before Sep 1, 202734%
- Before Oct 1, 202737%
- Before Nov 1, 202741%
- Before Dec 1, 202741%
- Before Jan 1, 202848%▲ 1
- Before Jul 1, 202857%
- Before Jan 1, 202960%
Traffic through the Suez Canal? (10/19 - 10/25)
298.1median
250340
Median 298.1Middle half 291.7 – 307
Traffic through the Panama Canal? (10/19 - 10/25)
197.4median
160230
Median 197.4Middle half 189.4 – 202.7
Traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait? (10/26 - 11/1)
189.7median
140230
Median 189.7Middle half 176.3 – 200.8
Traffic through the Suez Canal? (10/26 - 11/1)
296.6median
250340
Median 296.6Middle half 284.2 – 308.2
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Search. Prices read from the venues 3 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Search, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Search index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Search Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions