Traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait? (10/26 - 11/1)
189.4median
140230
Median 189.4Middle half 177.4 – 200.9
Install
Will the UK reverse the Diego Garcia sovereignty transfer?
The odds
44%Before Jan 1, 2028
- Before Dec 1, 20266%▲ 1
- Before Apr 1, 202726%
- Before Aug 1, 202736%
- Before Jan 1, 202844%
How the odds have moved
Before Dec 1, 2026: 4% on Oct 20, 6% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Before Dec 1, 2026 | 6% | ▲ 1 | 2¢ | 9¢ | $11.11 | 2.1K |
| Before Apr 1, 2027 | 26% | 24¢ | 27¢ | $3.70 | 1.1K | |
| Before Aug 1, 2027 | 36% | 35¢ | 36¢ | $2.78 | 1.3K | |
| Before Jan 1, 2028 | 44% | 40¢ | 47¢ | $2.13 | 814 |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Diego Garcia
Search ›-
Diego Garcia Airbase Why the US Will Never Give Up Diego GarciaHotAir Diego Garcia Airbase Why the US Will Never Give Up Diego Garcia Writing for the Daily Mail in 2023, Former British Prime Minister Boris Johnson sardonically argued, “The Americans don't give us crucial nuclear secrets because they… -
Why the US will never give up Diego GarciaSamuel Bashfield’s new book traces how the island became central to America’s maritime posture in the Indian Ocean Writing for the Daily Mail in 2023, Former British Prime Minister Boris Johnson sardonically argued, “The Americans don't… -
Labour to push ahead with Chagos 'surrender deal' despite Andy Burnham's promise to Donald TrumpCritics fear Labour's deal with Mauritius could cost an eye-watering £35billion WATCH NOW: Nile Gardiner comments on the right being at loggerheads over the Chagos deal Defence Secretary Wes Streeting has confirmed Labour will push ahead… -
Andy Burnham's team break silence after rumours top adviser 'set to quit'It's the latter post which could be compromised by Mr Powell's wife, the author Sarah Helm, who wrote on X on Thursday, "God help us authors who support Palestine and Palestine Action". Palestine Action is a proscribed terror organisation… -
Has Mauritius lost its agency in the Chagos deal?By offering Britain a 99-year lease to secure decolonisation, Mauritius bound its sovereignty to the shifting priorities of great powers, writes Timothy Walker in ISS Today. In 2025, the deal appeared to mark the culmination of a largely… - UK missile defences on a budgetThe Conservatives propose investing up to £10bn in Britannia Shield, a new missile and drone defence system, that would have “a minimal deployable capability” within their first term in office. This is good news. Britain’s air and missile…
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The Tories say I ‘want to give up British sovereignty’ on Chagos. It is a ridiculous lie"We are giving up on this surrender", was the operative line in my conversation with podcaster Benny Johnson last week. Giving up on the Tory-initiated Chagos surrender deal, which the Labour party happily picked up in office, would see… -
Sorry Kemi, but the Tories gutted UK military and started ball rolling on Chagos giveawayIf the Conservatives want to win hearts and minds on the Right, then it would help to start telling the truth. Perhaps bullish from a post conference poll bounce, Tory leader Kemi Badenoch somewhat overreached this week, criticising Nigel… -
Trump Officials Hit Back After Badenoch Attacks Farage Over ChagosKemi Badenoch’s swipe at Nigel Farage over the Chagos Islands has gone down badly in Washington. Farage told US podcaster Benny Johnson he would hand Trump Diego Garcia “in perpetuity” provided he stopped banging on about the Falklands… -
Chagos Revisited: Why Trump and Farage Are Trying to Stop Labour From Surrendering These Strategic Islands to an Ally of China.Most importantly, Diego Garcia hosts approximately 4,000 U.S. and British military servicemen, support staff, and civilian contractors. The island has no permanent civilian population. Since its creation, the base, officially called the… -
Iran exposes an intolerable US vulnerabilityFormer United Kingdom Prime Minister Winston Churchill said that "wars are not won by evacuations," and sometimes, he might have added, they are simply embarrassing. The United States hastily flew its B-1 bombers out of RAF Fairford in the… -
DAN HODGES: Kemi is right to distance herself from Trump. His brand is irreversibly toxic and will only harm FarageLike most things in politics at the moment, it all started with a gaffe from Nigel Farage. Appearing on American podcast The Benny Show, Reform’s leader casually declared that he would like to see a ‘trade’ done with Donald Trump over the…
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Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Search, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Search index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Search Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions