Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled?
99%chance
Install
How many Truths will Trump delete in Oct 2026?
The odds
5.34median
030
Median 5.34
How the odds have moved
Median: 6.13 on Oct 19, 5.34 now.
The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| At least 5 | 53% | ▲ 23 | 12¢ | 59¢ | $1.69 | 1.3K |
| At least 10 | 10% | 5¢ | 14¢ | $7.14 | 669 | |
| At least 15 | 4% | ▼ 1 | 1¢ | 7¢ | $14.29 | |
| At least 20 | 3% | ▼ 1 | 1¢ | 5¢ | $20.00 | |
| At least 25 | 3% | 1¢ | 5¢ | $20.00 | 764 |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Truths
Search ›-
Sean Hannity: El-Sayed knows the truth about him is uglyFox News Sean Hannity: El-Sayed knows the truth about him is ugly Fox News host Sean Hannity discusses the Michigan Senate race between Mike Rogers and Abdul El-Sayed on 'Hannity.' Fox News host Sean Hannity discusses the Michigan Senate… -
Why Netflix Fired Dan Lin (and the Truth About His Tension With Greta Gerwig Over ‘Narnia’)Inside the firing of Netflix film chief Dan Lin (and what really happened with "Narnia" director Greta Gerwig). Why Netflix Fired Dan Lin (and the Truth About His Tension With Greta Gerwig Over ‘Narnia’) “Everyone is collateral damage.” -
Unexpected truth about diet soda vs. water revealed in new studyMaybe that fridge cigarette isn’t so toxic after all. Diet soda has long promised a hit of sweetness without the sugar overload that can fuel weight gain. But sobering research has linked artificial sweeteners to a higher risk of heart… -
Delusional Truth Social rant proves Trump has finally lost the plotU.S. President Donald Trump gestures as he speaks to the media before boarding Air Force One at Joint Base Andrews in Maryland, U.S., en route to Myrtle Beach, South Carolina, August 21, 2026. Defending Karl Rove isn't something that comes… -
CNN Data Guru Humiliates Vance With Embarrassing TruthThe GOP believes the vice president could help its dire midterm prospects. CNN’s Harry Enten has warned that JD Vance is of little use to Republicans on the midterm campaign trail because of how deeply unpopular he is. Speaking on Monday’s… - Trump’s Truth Social Plunges to All-Time Low as Users FleeTrump’s tiny social media platform is facing a user exodus. Donald Trump’s social media company has hit a new low on the stock market. Shares in Trump Media & Technology Group, the company behind Truth Social, fell more than 7.5 percent on…
-
In Covid as in Climate Change: Truth Will OutAnthony Fauci has been caught red-handed twisting science during Covid to serve an authoritarian agenda. A similar reckoning is coming for the 'scientists' who preach climate catastrophe, says Dr Tilak Doshi. Fauci’s private record versus… -
Trump rants about Democrats' 'luxury cars' and rages at 'trash island' in unhinged Truth Social spreeDonald Trump lashed out at Democrats for 'driving luxury cars,' and branded the golf course he wants to renovate 'trash island' in irate posts amid his latest Truth Social spree The president remained awake until the early hours of Tuesday… -
Scandal-Hit Trump Goon Admits Secret Truth About His JobAnd he used to employ bar exam failure Katie Zacharia as “general counsel.” A high-profile “special envoy” for Donald Trump has admitted to the Daily Beast that his role secretly ended months ago. Ric Grenell, 60, is no longer the U.S… -
Morning Minute: There's Something to Be Said for Truth in AdvertisingReporter Reveals What He's Been Told About Michigan Polling in Latest Concerning Sign for El-Sayed Grab the Popcorn: Now There's a Report Omar's Sister Talked to the Feds Omar herself has not been seen since the raid on her home on Oct… - Gov. Hochul is hiding the truth about ACS and murdered childrenWhat did the Administration for Children’s Services know about Francis Cabello, the mentally ill mother who murdered her 5-year-old daughter last week? Because Gov. Hochul refuses to hold ACS accountable, the public may never find out why…
-
The Truth About The Gas Tax Nobody Voted ForCalifornia is now offering rebates of up to $120,000 on electric trucks, with more than $1 billion up for grabs through 2030. The program’s website preemptively assures critics that these massive green subsidies are “not funded by customer…
Related markets
All trump administration ›Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
4%chance
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?
3%chance▲ 1
Next Press Secretary?
26%Anna Kelly
- Anna Kelly26%▲ 4
- Scott Jennings8%
- Lara Trump5%▲ 3
28 more
- Maria Bartiromo5%
- Margo Martin5%▲ 1
- Elizabeth Pipko4%▼ 1
- Beni Rae Harmony4%▼ 1
- Kayleigh McEnany3%▼ 2
- Natalie Harp3%▼ 1
- Harrison Fields3%
- Katie Miller3%▼ 1
- Katie Pavlich2%
- Taylor Rogers2%
- Tricia McLaughlin2%
- Laura Loomer2%
- Karoline Leavitt2%
- Monica Crowley2%▲ 1
- Steven Cheung2%▼ 1
- Lauren Bis1%▼ 1
- Kari Lake1%▲ 1
- Liz Huston1%
- Alina Habba1%▼ 1
- Rachel Campos-Duffy1%
- Hogan Gidley1%
- Kush Desai<1%
- Pat Adams<1%
- Kaelan Dorr<1%
- Ari Fleischer<1%
- Matthew Boyle<1%
- Spencer Pratt<1%
- Jake Paul<1%
Trump out as President before 2027?
4%chance
María Corina Machado enters Venezuela by...?
33%December 31
- October 318%▼ 8
- December 3133%▼ 6
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Search. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Search, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Search index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Search Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use.